[fractal]

Hi swizzguy,

Guidelines

1. I like to see the 15 min candle close over the 15 min 80 MA (which is the same as the 20 MA on the 60 min chart).

If it is the first 15 min candle past the hour, this is an early entry. If it is the last 15 min candle of the hour, the 15 and 60 will close at the same time.

2. I like to see the 15 min and 60 min candles in the same direction (same color) at the time of entry.

Other notes

I'm still working on the setup and entries/exits. These will be guidelines and not a mechanical system of rules.

For example, Elliott Wave theory has 1) Rules and 2) Guidelines. Price crossing the MA is an additional guideline I am developing to help keep me out of trouble, it will not be a rule. In studying my trading record, it became obvious to me that a lot of times, I was entering against the short-term trend, and getting run over a lot. Worse, I was using stops too large, and/or moving them against losing positions. Very bad for the account.

The MA should keep me from trying to trade divergences too early against a strong trend.

I plan to back-test this some more this weekend and will post my study results early next week. My hypothesis is that, most times, if you use a ~30 pip stop, and maybe trail the stop as the price moves, the losses will be relatively small, mixed with some small wins, until catching a significant move.

For example, with my gain this week, I can now risk 5% and have to lose 5 trades in a row before giving back most of this last run. The goal is to use the price crossing the 20 MA to keep me from losing 5 times in a row. We'll see!