Quote:
Originally Posted by stucros
Your friend must talk to an awful lot of dealers to have a good idea that eurjpy is seeing more action than the majors in 2 trillion market.......
I agree talking about flow can be useful and welcome anyone saying that they are seeing a lot of eur buying or there are a lot of eur longs out there and I’ve never suggested that it’s all about the dollar but I still struggle with that comment. I’ll take on board what she is perhaps trying to say that we’re not in a usd driven market but if that is the case it is a very convoluted way of doing so!!
We obviously don’t share the same opinion but I also work in this so called ‘source’ you speak so mystically about and I also don’t make my living by telling people I have all the answers.
And a question to you then: On a daily volume you actually think it is possible for eurjpy volume to exceed that of usdjpy and eurusd?
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If there's something mystical about how I use the term "source", then that comes from someone else's interpretation, not mine. The source is the inter-bank market where the real volume trades and prices are really set. Nothing too mystical about that.
As for her manner of market commentary being "convoluted" then I hope you're prepared to say the same about a lot more people. I've heard similar sorts of phraseology from extremely reputable and well aware market commentators for as long as I've been in the market (mid-90s), and I'm sure it goes back further than that.
As to my colleague, he doesn't really have to talk to that many dealers to get a feel for what's happening. They all chatter with each other on a running basis every day as part of their job.
My bigger point, though, is who cares about absolute volume if it doesn't lead to price movement? Volume can come from a bunch of difference sources with reasons that have little impact on prices. There could be a trillion USD traded in USD/JPY on a given day, but if it's two-sided (meaning motivated equally by buyers and sellers) and prices don't move, then what difference does it make? If EUR/JPY, on the other hand, does a fraction of that volume but it comes from the so-called "smart money" and drives the cross repeatedly to new highs, then it's significant.