Hey Craig!!!
I'm still here (you did not SERIOUSLY think I was 'done' yet I hope)!!! LOL!!!
Well:
The 'riddle' of Wilder's systems has been solved I think!!!
I have spent the past two months or so studying (and I mean REALLY studying) two books by Alexander Elder, all three books by Bill Williams (for the second or third time around), two books by Larry Williams, and going through (again) a lot of Le Beau's ideas. And 'here is the thing': ALL of these / their systems (INCLUDING Wilder's) are just about the same (which tells me that they are either ALL 'wrong' or Wilder is also 'right')!!! As an example: Bill Williams' 'Balance Line' (which is his 'Alligator Jaw') generates THE IDENTICAL signals to, guess what, Wilder's ADX, BUT the calculations for the two systems (indicators) are W-A-Y different and yet they arrive at the same result!!! Larry Williams has a 'swing system' which, guess what, gives the IDENTICAL signals (using the same 'logic') as Wilder's Swing Index!!! Bill Williams' 'Fractals' give (almost) identical signals to Wilder's Swing Index!!! I could go on. HOWEVER (and it's a BIG 'BUT'): there are two things common to EVERYONE EXCEPT Wilder: RISK MANAGEMENT and STOP LOSSES!!! And THEREIN, my good friend, lie the ABSOLUTE differences!!! SO to answer your question: it really does not matter WHICH of these market guru's are your 'poison'. Without RISK MANAGEMENT and STOP LOSSES you're GOING to 'wipe out'. It's that simple. And no: at this point I'm not trading any of Wilder's trading systems. I'm currently demo trading a system based on 'the best bits' of the above market guru's (but, as I said, one MAY AS WELL be trading the DMI BUT WITH RISK MANAGEMENT and STOP LOSSES)!!! To be fair though: MAYBE I just did not understand Wilder's 'Capital Management' (although I always THOUGHT I did). Put another way: all those fancy percentages that I posted about while we were discussing leverage and lot sizes was absolute nonsense!!! NOW I UNDERSTAND RISK MANGEMENT ('Capital Mangement'???).
I'm about ready to put this new thing 'through its paces' on the live account again (I'm just waiting for one more 'piece of the puzzle' to 'fall into place' i.e. a 'capital boost' because unfortuanately this system cannot be traded with 'peanuts' otherwise you cannot incorporate RISK MANAGEMENT and then we'll all be 'back to square one')!!! Also: AT LEAST THIS TIME AROUND I've demo traded it and tested it thoroughly with the help of a VERY good friend of mine. See: I've learned SOMETHING in the past two 'and a bit' years!!! LOL!!! Ironically: because of all the 'pain and anguish' I've found it REAL easy to treat a demo account as a live account I'll tell you i.e. the SAME emotions have 'come into play' so there's no fooling myself here!!!
Regards,
Dale.
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