Quote:
Originally Posted by MattW2009
Phil,
A very interesting strategy however the win/loss ratio is scary for me. As you know I'm down to virtually nil on my account and a string of losses would end it all so I'm thinking about a change to the 'rules' of the system that would produce more wins, although ultimately reduce profitability - thus making it a more conservative and 'safe' system.
How about exiting the trade at 2R?
Do you think this would produce more (smaller) wins? Would it have produced some winning trades in the Feb-March losing streak?
Are you able to back-test this a bit? Like some others my 4hour charts only go back 3 months.
Matt
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Matt,
Who are you using for a broker? If you have a good broker account size shouldn't matter. If your account is small go with a broker that lets you trade fractional lot sizes, like Oanda or IBFX. Either one of those would still allow you to trade with good MM even if you only had $20 or so in your account!
I don't have data to back it up, but based on my experience I don't think taking profit at 2R would end up being profitable. You'd probably end up losing money in the long run. This method is based on pure statistics and probability, not any type of real technical analysis, so you need the big wins to make it profitable.
I'd hold off trading it if your broker/account size won't let you trade it safely.
I'll do some backtests on it next week, but I'm leaving for vacation in a few hours and don't have time right now.
