Quote:
Originally Posted by phil838
While it is true that I haven't tested it back any further than 2005, I feel that the 5 years worth of data that we have is enough.
I may be wrong, but I just can't see how a system like this one could work so well for such a long time and then suddenly stop. This system is 100% adaptable to any market condition. If the markets become more volatile, then the ATR and candle sizes increase, which in turn increases our TP and SL. If the markets start ranging the opposite happens and our TP and SL levels come down to match.
There will be an adjustment period of a month of two before the system adapts, of course, but if you're using proper money management that shouldn't be an issue.
In fact, anytime you're using a system with proper money management you shouldn't be concerned with your system failing. This was proven recently by the failure of the NickB scalp line system that a lot of us on this forum trade. I traded it profitably for almost 2 years before it started failing. Once I saw there was a problem with the system I first reduced my lot sizes, then when it didn't turn around I stopped trading it altogether. The money I lost when the system failed was a drop in the bucket compared to what I made during the previous 2 years. 
When in comes to Sunday breakout trades I would need well over 100 losses in a row to wipe my account out, and I would need over 25 losses in a row to make me lose all the profits I've made with this system since I started trading it. If I got 10 in a row I would stop trading this live, so there's really no way I can lose. Even if I lose money on the next 10 trades and never see another winner from this system I'd still have made a lot of money from it.
It all comes down to money management. If you're overleveraging yourself then you need to be afraid of losing streaks, but if you risk a conservative amount per trade then you don't have to worry about it. |
Hi Phil838, missed you out here.
So you are not going to trade the NickB Scalp line method any longer? Have you seen the backtesting that MetalHawk just completed on the different G/J TP and SL levels in his blog this week. The work he did was very informative. Metalhawk is planning to take 2 trades for each scalp line, each trade with 2 different TP / SL configurations...so he will basically be trading 2 different systems, I guess to try and smooth the equity curve a little bit. Both Nick and Metalhawk seem to be just as excited as ever even after the recent string of losses, and I know that Nick is circling back to his old ways and has started to trade the E/J again as well (but is not releasing any info just yet).
Anyway, glad that you are back and as usual, I totally agree with your insights shared in these most recent posts. As a matter of fact, I trade every system and method that I trade with the belief that all of them will eventually "fail", and recognizing that failure is really the biggest discretionary part of my trading outside of recognized what methods to start trading in the first place. As for me, I have not given up on the Scalplines just yet.