hmmm… that’s my problem, Thinking that what I see is what I think I see rather than what I see, I think I see but I don’t see what I think… see?
how about a concrete example with pictures and diagrams? entry and exit points?
Iam in the same boat your in Talon, so pictures and diagrams wont help.We need to find another ore so we can steer the boat.;)Iam looking at a method with haiken ashi looks promising i will let you know.
kaalilaatikko
initial SL = 32 pips = approx. 1.5x ATR 14 on 15 min time frame when I placed my order
TP = 1.5 x SL = 48 pips
After P/L showed more than 1.3x ATR 14 on 15 min time frame I moved SL to break even.
So in fact I used rules taken from one of my trading systems for placing SL and P/L.
ATR 14 is default setting. I didn’t think about ATR 10.
Those trades were short term trades. If the trades wouldn’t have moved in my direction I would have bailed out @9am GMT at the latest.
Because best time frame for those trades is 7am - 9am GMT according to one post in this thread.
No use having trades open any longer because Time of the Day plays a big factor in trading FX. IMHO
TALOND
Great post! That left field hunour again. :D:D
In my humble opinion, trade the chart (price action). Stay out of high impact news and don’t second guess. Use a trailing stop or move your stop manually in line with your trade. Look to the next significant S/R for a retrace of your position and either set a TP at this point or let your trailing/ manually adjusted stop get taken out or a combination of the two. 
Cas, thanks for that information. Your TP and SL principles differ from mine so that I cannot give any further comment. What I noticed, though, is that if you are targetting at getting roughly the same amount of pips as was the overnight range (as I’m doing), having the entry that far may not be the best choice.
I also looked at the figures of ATR(10) and ATR(14). They did not differ that much that I would see any bigger importance between which one to use.
The week was lousy for me. 2 profits, 2 losses. The second profit was on Friday, when I exited the trade manually at 8 pips after having been late from placing the trade and seeing that the risk had grown too big compared to the profit. It turned out that that was a good decision, but after finding out that I was late, I should have stayed out in the first place. The two losses ate the profits from the previous week + some more, as I had increased my position size a bit (for some reason this is how it always seems to go!) Pipwise, it is +18 pips total for 2 weeks.
Let’s see how the coming week will look like.
GBP/USD overview, in preparation for a new week:
Here is an updated view of the channel that has formed beginning September 2. This is a 1-hour chart.
Here is a close-up of the right-hand portion of the channel. Point #5 was on September 10. This is a 15-minute chart.
Here is the calendar of high-impact and medium-impact GBP and USD economic news releases scheduled for the coming week.
More later.
Clint
Hey Clint,
Looking at your point 7 on your 1 hour chart. That point is farily close to the 61.8% Fib retracement and also resistance point of 1.6588. I did not think we would get there this fast.
You’re right about the fib.
(Regarding 1.6588, I think you mean “support”.)
In a day or two, a long position from the 1.6575-1.6600 area, with a profit target of 150-200 pips, might be a good trade.
But, the pair has work to do between here and point 7, before that trade can be recommended.
Edit: I think I have overestimated the time required to complete the move to point 7. See the next post.
Two caveats:
(1) Channels don’t last forever. A break below the lower channel boundary line in the region of point 7 would mark the end of this channel, and
(2) The trade described above is not in any way related to the strategy we have been discussing on this thread.
But, it’s something to watch for a potential “off-topic” trading opportunity.
I have plotted the channel on the 5-minute chart, and it appears that we could hit point 7 within the next few hours.
The overnight range is rather big today, and that looks more like a short-term trend than a range. I’m out for today.
Notes on the London Breakout Strategy for Monday morning:
I will not trade the Strategy this morning.
In my opinion, the channel that the GU has been in will dominate price action over the next several hours.
I expect a test of the lower boundary line of this channel, and I’m guessing that the boundary will hold.
Therefore, I don’t see enough running room below Sunday night’s LOW to attempt the LBS Strategy on the downside.
Instead, I will trade the bounce off the channel lower boundary line, by going long at 1.6583 (ask).
Since I expect the channel to hold, I will place a 30-pip SL below my entry price (20-25 pips below the lower boundary line).
Because Sunday’s range (HIGH - LOW) is 93 pips, I think there is plenty of running room for a 60-pip profit target.
If I am wrong about the test of the channel lower boundary line, I will probably have no trade this morning.
If the boundary line is tested and fails to hold, I will lose 30 pips.
This is not the 150-200 pip trade I described in the previous post. This is a pull-back trade with a modest profit target.
I am not posting the usual S/R levels this morning.
There are no scheduled news releases this morning.
The 5-minute chart below shows the entry point, stop-loss and profit target for this pull-back trade.
I don’t recommend this trade to anyone else. But, if you choose to try it, be prepared to actively manage this trade.
Clint
Clint,
Great idea.
Good luck!
Well, I just tried to make that trade and totally got my ass handed to me. I waited for a pattern to develop similar to what I’ve tried to learn from Tymen’s candlestick thread and went long on a Bullish Morning Star Doji at the 06:00 GMT candle on the 15m chart.
Instead I lost a nice big chunk of my account thinking I’d finally called something right. What was I thinking, the only guarantee something will go up in this business is if I bet it will go down. :mad:
using the small narrow range near the end of the overnight period would have been sucessful to the down side. I still say you need a narrow range to break out of. even if it means ignoring the original overnight beginning time. see the attached pic.
In Tyman’s candlestick thread doesn’t he state that the shortest time frame one should use is the 30 min chart???
I like this idea. It might be so that the momentum in the middle of the night is strong enough to continue in the same direction a few hours later. If this is true, then you might be able to use the ordinary rules, but just use the shortened box and only trade in the direction of the momentum. On 9/11 the strong momentum took place even closer to the end of the box. Both of these would have given the box amount of pips nicely.
I don’t know if this kind of setup is rather rare, I couldn’t spot any other instances of this. 8/31 was sort of, but not quite. I need to watch out for this.
the only thing about using a smaller narrower range like that is it takes less of a price move to trigger your order so maybe smaller SL and TP is in order there.
if you zoom out on a 15m chart on metatrader, you’ll see price was trending down through the night since yesterday, even though it flattened out some and retraced a little during the night. So that happens, a continuation of previous trend. maybe something to take into account when doing the overnight breakout.
This pic shows the last 2 days, you can tell the London/NYC hours by the increase in tick volume.
and you can see the downtrend that started yesterday morning
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Hi Clint,
Thank you for your contribution to this forum!!
Since you have been trading the break out system for long time, with your experience , what is your SL and TP ? Also do you enter to the other side of the channel if stop out on the first break out? Thank you Clint,
Best regards,
Jacinto.
Should this questions not be asked and posted in Tymen1 Candlestick Trading thread?