I would summize that any probability of closing higher-lower than the hourly open is no better than attempting to predict the vicinity of the closing ticks at end of day.
Two major influences spring to mind which would definitely affect the decision of an hourly candle:
1) Any economic news due for release within that hourly timeframe.
2) The approach & reaction of a significant level (a major round number) or previous zone of s&r.
You also have option activity to contend with + periods of low liquidity - namely the London closing slot around 11.00am EST.
Could just be too many variables for you there to cobble together a workable strat or system? which appears to be your reason for enquiring?
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