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Old 07-27-2007, 02:19 PM
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dpaterso dpaterso is offline
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OK - well - here are my answers to everybodys posts so far (and I just want you all to know that it is absolutely killing me to not close out this particular position)!!!

Anyway:

Quote:
That would be my question. If someone is trading the 4 major pairs (EUR/USD, USD/CHF, GBP/USD, USD/JPY) on the daily, what kind of funds would they need to have in their brokerage account in order to totally play this out?
Put it this way - I don't normally trade forex pairs anymore - only the Indices. Having said that - I got bored two days ago and had a look at my 'purely' forex accounts that I have at two other brokers - and just decided to try this and let it run and see how it plays out - mainly because it is theoretically low maintenance i.e. once a day - have look - move your stops - that's it. At this particular broker I only had just over $1000 left so I was taking a FAT chance by opening one full position - but - it has paid off - this time anyway! At the other broker (which has far more pairs available) I had about $3000 so I opened positions on each and every single pair that had a new Parabolic SAR dot appearing on the Daily Chart. The lots cost anywhere between $50 and about $160 and I ended up with fifteen lots open. Right now as I type this message the cumulative profit of all of those lots is sitting at $2510. Obviously at this broker the lot sizes are smaller i.e. lot size is 10000 but it is a highly leveraged account. So - I don't know if that answers your question - my total layout was about $2000 if I take an average. Remember that in most cases when you are first opening your position your stop loss is reasonably small so even maxing out your account like I did should be OK although probably not advisable. Also - at this broker - you can buy smaller lots of 1000 so then you would obviously only need about $300 to be in the position that I'm now.

Quote:
My first thought is that as long as you are in profit there is no wrong time to get out. If your fundamentals are screaming at you why not get out? If you've got a good profit and you want to go ahead and take it so that your account is a little more liquid why not get out?
That's the problem - there is not a single good reason to close this trade - other than fear. Bill Williams' AO and AC are both still red and going down - and even ADX by Wilder himself is telling me to only open the position right now (see attached chart). I hope I'm right!


Quote:
so The parabolic sar really only works in TRENDY market....ala
GBP/USD.....from my research using in a choppy martket is too jumpy.

Closer the dots, when is a good time to get in?
I'm not so sure about it only working in trending markets - you may not make as much in a choppy or sideways market but I'm pretty sure you will make something as long as you are trading pairs with a low spread. It will definitely kill you if you try and trade pairs with high spreads in a choppy or sideways market - again - like my beloved USD/ZAR, GBP/ZAR, and EUR/ZAR - but if your are lucky and catch a trend on these pairs - you've got it made!

As far as the dots go - well - I just opened these positions the moment the first dot appeared. Wilder - in his book 'New Concepts In Technical Trading Systems' - actually says that you could wait for two or three dots to appear as confirmation before entering BUT then you really are getting in to the trade very late.

Put it this way - take any Daily / Weekly / Monthly Chart and overlay Parabolic SAR - I just don't see how you can go wrong - but - I'm sure - time will tell!!!

By the way - Bill Williams' AO (Awesome Oscillator) also works very well for me. Simple - when a green bar appears - go long (or stop and reverse) - when a red bar appears - go short (again stop and reverse) - that's it. This indicator actually gets you into a trade very early as a matter of fact and I use this trading the Indices. But that's another discussion altogether. The main reason I'm experimenting with Parabolic SAR is that my other broker does not have Bill Williams' Indicators built into the trading platform and I just have not had the inclination to program it in myself (yet).

I have read much criticism about all of these indicators but I'll tell you that I only recently realised that the problem is that we do not stick to them i.e. we do one or two trades using them - and when the first loss happens - we abandon them and try to look for something else. The key to these indicators is to stick with them no matter what AND - more importantly - only trade on the Daily / Weekly / Monthly Charts. Again - your are pretty much immune to those 'pesky' news releases. All of my positions managed to withstand the US reports yesterday and today (major releases). Normally - I'm so used to getting stopped out because of these news releases - because I have been messing around with small timeframes - a total waste of time.

Put it this way - at least - lately - I've started to enjoy life again. I'm basically working an hour or two a day now - checking for new dots or red or green lines - moving stops - and that's it. The biggest mistake I have made in the last six months is thinking and feeling that if I'm not sitting in front of this stuff all day and making trades I'm not working - and this has cost me dearly in $ terms. I cannot tell a lie though - I CONSTANTLY check on my positions - I can't help myself - and - I know from experience - that this is my downfall!!!

Regards,

Dale.
Attached Images
File Type: gif audusd with adx ao and ac.GIF (17.8 KB, 1494 views)
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