[dpaterso]

Hello,

Akram: what book? I don't see any attachments or anything like that.

As far as trading is concerned - yup - I'm having a VERY bad time right now!!!

I ended up closing ALL of my positions on anything AUD/CAD/NZD and took a HUGE LOSS on these positions.

Now - I know what you're all thinking - 'See - even HE can't stick with the indicator'!!!

Now - while I ordinarily would agree with you - this time it was done for a GOOD reason - not just on a 'whim'!!!

As you know - I've been questioning the 'validity' of including the 'commdolls' in this 'strategy' and - I've come to the conclusion - that EITHER - you exclude them altogether - OR - you only take positions on them IF the direction being indicated by Parabolic SAR is correctly 'correlated' with the relevant commodity.

In other words:

If the 'Parabolic SAR direction' of Gold is up - then you buy or go long AUD/???, NZD/???, and ZAR/??? and you sell or go short ???/AUD, ???/NZD, and ???/ZAR.

If the 'Parabolic SAR direction' of Gold is down - then you sell or go short AUD/???, NZD/???, and ZAR/??? and you buy or go long ???/AUD, ???/NZD, and ???/ZAR.

If the 'Parabolic SAR direction' of Oil is up - then you buy or go long CAD/??? and you sell or go short ???/CAD.

If the 'Parabolic SAR direction' of Oil is down - then you sell or go short CAD/??? and you buy or go long ???/CAD.

I'm undecided in the case of pairs like AUD/CAD, AUD/NZD, NZD/CAD, etc. etc. i.e. where the 'commdolls' cross so any input would be GREATLY appreciated.

Before opening any of the above positions you still have to wait for a valid Parabolic SAR entry signal on the pair and a 'valid' signal will only be one that is in the 'correspondingly correctly correlated direction' of Parabolic SAR on the commodity (metal).

That's quite a mouthful!!! Make sense???

Now - that's the reason that I closed all of these positions i.e. Gold - although the rally 'looks' like it's run out of steam it has not yet turned according to Parabolic SAR - and the same applies to Crude Oil - and - what has been happening the whole day (since opening these positions in fact) - is that these positions were ALL taken in the wrong direction i.e. false Parabolic SAR entry signals so waiting it out on these positions just for the sake of 'sticking' with the indicator was really futile i.e. the loss was inevitable - it was just a case of how big the loss was going to be at the end.

Now you may say 'well - it should not really matter - as long as you took the signal from Parabolic SAR in the correct direction - then the movement of the pair should still continue as if the pair was moving just like any other pair'. Well - from what I can see - not so. The movement of the other pairs happens because of 'normal' factors (for want of a better description) and 'influences' such as interest rates, supply and demand, that kind of thing. With the 'commdolls' though - because there is a high correlation percentage between them and Gold and Oil - it would appear that the correlation 'overpowers' (again for want of a better description) the 'normal' factors and 'influences' that would affect any other currency pair. In other words - yes the AUD would be affected by interest rate changes in Australia (as one example) but the influence on the AUD of the Gold price is greater - if you know what I mean.

I hope that all makes sense - and I REALLY hope that if I'm posting 's**t' here that somebody will correct me (by the way - at least I think I was right about CHF today).

Because of the above factors - I wrote off a LOT of money today - but it's still less than it would have been had I just waited it out. I'm confident - that WHEN Gold and Oil DO turn around for real - I'll make up the losses and then some on the 'commdolls' if I stick to the above 'strategy'. Of COURSE the possibility exists that Gold and Oil will continue on up 'like there is no tomorrow' and all of the positions that I closed today would have turned into a profit before being reversed - and then I'm going to find another way of making a living!!!

Jean:

I have attached a self-extracting WinZip file. Download it and run it (by double clicking on it - and don't worry - I guarantee it's virus free) and just accept all the default prompts. Then - when you're on a chart - 'Add/Remove overlay indicators', select the 'More' button, move right down the menu until you see the folder 'Native', click on the plus sign to the left of 'Native', and right at the bottom you will see an indicator called 'AMA(Bill Williams' Alligator MA's). Click on this and - hey presto - you now have an Alligator on your chart (well it's not a 'true' Alligator because it is not 'shifted' a couple of bars ahead because I don't know how to do this - yet - but it is nevertheless the same MA's as per Bill Williams books i.e. he does not say whether they should be simple, exponential, smoothed, etc. etc.). They (the MA's) that I used are just simple MA's - but I see that on Metatrader 4 the Alligator consists of 'smoothed' MA's - but from what I can see - there is no 'real' difference i.e. if you change the MA's from 'smoothed' to 'simple' on Metatrader 4 there is such a slight difference in there appearance that I can't see how it would matter.

ONLY EXTRACT THE FILE THAT I HAVE GIVEN YOU IF YOU HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO OR ADDED TO THE FORMULAS ON DELTA'S PLATFORM BECAUSE MY FILE WILL OVERWRITE ANYTHING THAT YOU HAVE ADDED OR CHANGED.

ALSO - YOU HAVE TO RENAME THE FILE FROM ALLIGATOR.ZIP TO ALLIGATOR.EXE IN ORDER TO RUN IT (you can't upload executable files to the forum).

If you HAVE added your own formulas or changed stuff there then I'll somehow have to give you instructions on how to create the thing yourself.

Regards,

Dale.