Hi Dale.. exams are going good so far, I just have one more tomorrow afternoon but I am pretty much done studying for it so I have some free time right now. I am disappointed in myself as I "got scared" with my usd/jpy short trade (which was not taken based on any system, just "me") and I closed it out it for a loss when it broke 100.50. Now I see it is back below 100, after being as low as the high 95's. It looks like I have a lot to learn about whipsaws and the like, I mean the 0.75% fed cut is negative for the dollar but since it was less than expected it sent everything back up (temporarily I guess). I hate the news! This is why I want to get started in commodities, you don't have to worry about that stuff as much. This little experience just confirms to me what I already thought, but wasn't entirely convinced of: follow the damn system and stick to it!
That aside, I am still in my volatility trade (short aud/jpy) even though it has rebounded over 250 pips today, but it's still at around 350 pips profit. I was using a multiplier of 2.8 when I got into the trade, and I plan on seeing this trade through, I'm not going to stop and reverse until I'm supposed to stop and reverse.
I'm still trying to figure out my "game plan" for trading in the future. I want to stick with gold, as it is the only commodity I can trade at the time, and it seems to work well with the TBP system so far, 4 for 4 winning trades and it caught the drop today nicely. I am still following it with the volatility system, but with a multiplier of 2.8 it's quite a ways off from a reverse. I like aud/jpy and gbp/jpy both, they have very high CSI ratings, but do you think that they are correlated too closely? I have this same dilemma with aud/jpy and gold as well since aud is a "comdoll" so maybe stick to gbp/jpy and gold? I also like usd/cad as it follows oil prices to some extent, and while it is stuck in a range right now, it had a fairly high csi as well, although I remember you saying that you weren't as confident in csi as you were before.
I had a question for you about the SI as well. On page 90 in the book, where you calculate R, I always get option (3) (today's high - today's low) as the largest. I did it for several forex pairs and I always end up using the third equation to calculate R. Is this what you have as well? I want to make sure of this before I study the SI any more, and I am looking forward to see if we can make something useful from the "volatility swing" hybrid system.
By the way-- I saw your post on the parabolic sar thread about the fractal and psar combo.. how has that been working out? Does it rival Mr. Wilder's original systems?
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