Hi Tom, and welcome to 'the business'.
Pleased to hear about the book. I don't think you'll be sorry and so far it would appear that, in addition to myself, there are one or two others that can vouch for the effectiveness of it's content!!!
I appreciate the good and kind words about the 'Parabolic SAR - that's all!!!' thread. I sometimes go back over that thread now and then and sometimes it makes me feel foolish, sometimes it makes me feel sad, and sometimes it makes me 'laugh my head off', but at the end of the day I think it shows what this business can do TO you if you're not careful and also what it can do FOR you if you approach it the right way and, as you say, I do believe that it contains an element of 'brutal honesty' that was shared by everyone and that 'low down' you will NOT find in any book on trading or on a brokers website or disclaimer. Anyway: thanks for going through it.
Wilder himself will not rate the systems in the book and I personally don't think you can rate them against each other either i.e. they ALL work (well) but you need to find the one that suits your 'trading personality' I think. For instance: the Parabolic Time Price System (which really is just Parabolic SAR and has been covered 'every which way from Sunday' in the old thread) requires LOADS of patience, a fair amount of free margin / capital, has very little 'action' BUT is EXTREMELY effective in 'the long run' and requires very little 'maintenance'. The Volatility System requires LOADS of patience (and I cannot stress the fact enough that it also requires LOADS of free margin / capital) BUT it will probably generate the most profit with the least amount of effort on the traders part. The Trend Balance Point System and the Reaction Trend System require more 'maintenance' but are also very effective and they have 'action' every day if that's what you 'need'. The Directional Movement System is nothing new i.e. it's based on ADX which is included with most trading platforms (although the book gives you insight into the CORRECT use of ADX which most people, who have not done their 'homework', tend to use incorrectly). As you know I favour the Swing Index System because it has loads of 'action' and needs loads of 'maintenance' and it suits my 'trading personality' i.e. I 'need' to 'tinker' about with a system all of the time otherwise I get bored and this allows me to 'shine' as it were.
As far as pips go I never count them so right now I could not even tell you with any accuracy how many pips I make on average. I tend to look at the percentage gained of my monthly starting capital at the end of each month or period. I think that it would be an intersing excercise to do though i.e. maybe at the end of this month I'll work out the pips made or lost per trade and post the results. I can tell you that since I've been using the Swing Index System my percentage can can vary between 50% and the highest so far has been 280% BUT let me qualify the statement by saying that it depends on what has been traded during the month. For example: during the month that I was 'up' 280% I traded the Brasilian Bovespa Index once or twice during that month (using signals from the Swing Index System) and this index can move $500 (either way) in minutes (and has a tendency to takes 'years off of your life' while you're in a position because of the 'violence' of the moves). That particular month I also did some 'stirling' trades on Soybeans (which is also a 'high payer'). What I'm saying is that taking those few trades out of the equation my percentage gain was probably only around 100% that month and would have been made up mostly on trades on forex pairs, the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. The point I'm trying to make is that there is no way you can expect gains in that 'realm' during the normal course of trading with ANY system INCLUDING the Swing Index System I don't think. While I cannot say that the BIG trades were 'luck' (because they were not i.e. I entered as per the Swing Index System) I had 'no business' trading the Bovespa with my capital so if you look at it THAT way it was a 'chance' that I took which paid off BUT it could very easily have gone the other way 'in a heartbeat'. Get the picture??? (Sometimes I 'slip' and get up to my old 'overtrading antics')!!! Not good!!! Lucky that time!!! Not sustainable though.
As far as equities, commodities, metals, and oil vs forex pairs: I've been quite vocal about this in the past and I 'stick by it'. I don't like forex pairs, I don't like the way they move, and I don't like the money that they have cost me in losses. While I'm sure that there are LOADS of people who ONLY trade forex pairs these trades either don't work out for me or the rewards are not comensurate (geez now there is a word I have not used for a long time) with the amount of time and effort involved. I also don't believe that they 'follow the rules' as does the Dow for example. But this is JUST ME. If you're asking for MY advice I'd steer you in the direction of the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 (futures) to start with then move on to metals, commodities, and oil when you've built up a bit (a lot) of capital. The only problem is that the amount of capital that you have available to you to start with will limit your choice of broker and therefore your choice of tradeable instruments. I'm working on something for people who want to open accounts with GCI Financial (GCI Trading???) that have a minimum of $500 starting capital (GCI requires a minimum of $2 000) but I can only do this if I have more clients to justify the arrangement. GCI has EVERYTHING on offer so that's why this is such a 'big deal' to sort something out.
I hope this clears a few things up for you (well from my point of view anyway).
Any questions: that's what we're all here for!!!
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