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Originally Posted by jsese
I have been reading posts and systems and claims and have to come to a moment of epiphany in my trading. I must be no good at this because I, being completely disciplined in my strategy, using no more than 2% risk on any trade, having a 64% win ratio, and never getting emotional in my decisions, have never been able to post the kinds of results I see on some people make.
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Jsese,
With the institutional and retail experience you have, you've no doubt come across a fact about traders that transcends whatever instrument they're trading: many (not all, but many) of those making claims to exceptional profits are not making consistently exceptional profits, nor are they representing their trading activity with complete transparency. The psychological motivation for this selective coverage is pretty simple, really: ego: supporting it, guarding it, nurturing it and praising it. That doesn't mean there aren't those who humbly go about trading each day, week and month and do very well; but typically they aren't loudly advertising their performance or quite as self-confident as this other class of egotistical traders. As you're well aware, it's a tiny sub-set of very successful traders that post their performance for the world to see; most of them do what they do, keep a low profile on the Internet and quietly grow their accounts to very impressive values.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jsese
I stick religiously to 2% rule and never hold trades over night. I have 64% win loss ratio and with all that I average between 250 and 300 pips a month. This represents between 5% and 6% gains a month. Based on what I have read, this is embarrasing and by no means advertising.
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Your profits shouldn't be embarrassing, and their contrast with those claiming massive gains shouldn't dissuade you from maintaining what is most valuable: the plan that you're rigorously sticking to. With that as a foundation, you can look in other directions for ways to improve.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jsese
Now I read post of people making 2000 pips a day, or 4500 pips a month. Ok, I believe it. I don't doubt anyone, it doesn't bother me that I make less. But what I don't see is anyone saying what kind of risks are being taken to achieve that? is that just a one time thing? Off how much capital is that being achieved. What about drawdowns?
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2000 pips a day? How are they counting them? 100 pips on 5 mini lots each opened separately with a separate TP may be counted as 500 pips by some (signal services like to advertise by representing historical performance this way). Is this person making hundreds of pips each day net? There's a whole host of questions to ask to deconstruct these types of claims. You're questions above are good points to start with: what kind of risk went along with making that many pips in one day because it's likely they have trades open on quite a few pairs, how often do they do it (e.g. +500 pips each day?)? If they make 2000 pips trading 10 units (1/1000th of a mini lot) they haven't earned enough to fill up their gas tank. And yeah: what happens on a bad day, or how many of those are there? And how long have they been making that number of pips consistently? Probably they're going to be light on these details.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jsese
1200 pips a day off $5000? Consistantly?
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1200 pips? Trading a mini lot? That's almost 25% per day. Does this claim have any credibility? No. It can be done (well 25% in a day, anyway), but how many days consecutively before you blow up your account? Ask around: the vast consensus of traders who are the least bit sensible will call this ludicrous. You're right to doubt.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jsese
It is ok to tell me simply that I suck at this. I won't be offended. I will keep doing what I do and DEMO new things to see if I find something better. I want to hear reality. Long term results, facts about money management, growth of a portfolio over time. Not I made a Billion FUfillion pips today! I am sure everyone keeps trading journals here where they have accurate figures on themselves so anwering to this isn't a big chore.
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You don't suck, based on the details you've provided. As you know, 5-6% per month is an outstanding return that dwarfs many of the "best" in the business, whether institutional or retail. But, could you potentially clear more than 250-300 pips/mo.? Sure; at the same time, your win ratio is comfortably high that you could perhaps bump up your position sizing. Tell us a bit about what methodology you use to trade.
And the journal threads on forums, just like on stock forums, are a very mixed bag: some are honest, some are not; and if anyone is around who knows what they're talking about, the dishonest will probably be revealed as such. Get a feel for different people, keep tabs on their threads, and you'll find those who are genuinely successful.
Best wishes to you,
Andrewunknown