Quote:
Originally Posted by 4xStar
We've just had another Tenkan-Kijun bullish cross above the kumo on the G-Y, however there was a bearish cross a few hours ago .. not sure how to interpret mixed signals like that or if it is just wait & see....
Oops, forgot to say I was looking at 4h timeframe for that cross. Now the tenkan is crossing the rising kijun .. not sure what that means  |
This is all above the cloud, so the crosses are strong bullish signals; but, as you know, the Guppy has not been in what we would call a smooth uptrend the past several days. Look at the Chikou Span - where is it at (remember, you're drawing horizontally from price back to Chikou, then vertically to price 26 periods ago) relative to the current price? On the 3H, anyway, I see a weak bearish setup there. Also, the Kumo is tightening dramatically, supporting the notion that the pair is consolidating. Nevertheless, price remains on the bullish side of the cloud, making any shorts inadvisable: as we have also seen.
There is the tendency here - at least for myself - to lean on the 3H/4H (for purposes of this point, it makes no difference) a little too much. IKH can be used on these timeframes and will generate excellent predictive results, but the daily is the classic IKH chart that cuts out the chop we're feeling here in this consolidative area. One look at the daily tells you the uptrend is, as yet, unchallenged with the IKH "big picture" unanimously supporting the upside movement.
But, a caveat to that: notice the peaks on the Chikou: 212.57-213.05. Price is struggling here in a way it has not since around 210-210.50. This correlates well to our traditional image of S/R, where we find clear resistance in the 212.80 area. The cloud has tapered to a thin band, and we nearly had a Senkou Span flip early yesterday. In a phrase, then: conflicting signals.