Quote:
Originally Posted by rrram2
I cant really tell, the 3H is a strong up still
I dont see a signal of a reverse.
It has been an amazing come back and i am certain there is some retrace in the works and thatis why I sold my 209.99 for 7 or 8 pips and reenetered a order to buy one again at 209.99.
We have strong LT trend line support at 209.20 now moving up every 3 hours.
There may be some small bounces but a continued move upward is in order.
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Thanks for keeping us up to date while you are on vacation!
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The widest TF to which I pay heed with any consistency is 1D, which I follow closely because of IKH. There I see an ascending trendline from begun 03/17-03/18 that has had 7 subsequent touches (6 excluding today): all have held, with today being no exception. Currently that line sits right around 209.60, which we'll close above (my 1D candles are configured for ET) unless a flood of shorts pushes the rate down in the next 10. Uptrend intact.
The last time that line was
violated intraday was May 9, but the close occurred above the line. The line, as circumstance would have it, coincided almost exactly with the bottom of the cloud. Price moved up, touched the line once more on May 21 while it dawdled along Kijun-sen, then crossed KS and didn't look back until the uptrend's momentum began stalling around June 27.
How about precedent? The most recent top-down Tenkan/Kijun cross occurred on May 16, several sessions before the trendline test on May 21. The trendline pushed back, causing a bottom-up cross that was only negated yesterday. Now we have a new top-down T/K cross, once again at the trendline. The difference? The top of the cloud (Senkou Span B) supported price in late May. This time around, the top of the cloud (Senkou Span A) sites @ 206.30. Again, this is all derived from 1D. It's a moderately bullish POV that relies principally on maintenance of the ascending trendline.
But, I don't take trades from 1D - almost always 1H or 3H. This approx. level at this point in time is littered with support (209.93, 209.67, 209.26) which is mostly respected (with the exception of the excursion beneath 209 earlier, promptly corrected), but also resistance (210.15, 210.45). On these TFs, I'm neutral, seeing some significant buoyancy around 209 but also the capacity to slide another couple hundred pips to the kumo if this pull back to 210 turns out to be corrective (not to mention the cloud does ramp back to 210 at the beginning of August). This is the gray area in which I'm - mostly - comfortable being alternately bullish and bearish whenever suitable, with relatively little mental quibbling over direction.
And no problem - glad to be able to check in on occasion while I'm gone. Sometimes you need a brief vacation from vacation, anyway!
