Here is the result of my first full month: +9% (4% up from the start). I started on loss and managed to climb above breakeven, with some ups and downs in between. I am satisfied in that this is my first month on profit ever, including the demo trading period. Still, there were some stupid trades that I could have lived pretty well without. I have learned a lot anyway, and if September is going to be as Dale is forecasting, I'm expecting to see bigger figures to come.
The above figure is calculated from my account, not the open trades. If you had asked my opinion one month ago, I would have liked to include the open positions as well. Now my eyes have opened for what Dale discussed about the profit counting principles a while ago. The open positions just are not the whole truth, they rather give a distorted picture of the whole situation. Personally I have more open positions now than ever, used margin is 16%. But all of these except one are such ones that I could open them again, if I weren't in already. The one is AUD/NZD, where I did a small mistake when entering - correct use of VSC1 would have saved me from it. Not surprisingly, I'm expecting the current VSC1 line for long to break now! All the rest of my positions are CFD, so when the stocks start to rise again, I'm expecting to see a lot green. On the other hand, if there is now a general collapse of the stocks coming and all my VS 3.1 stops start getting hit, then I/we have a problem. But I doubt that.
I have been counting the used margin based on the account. But I just noticed that Delta shows the free margin by subtracting the used margin from the sum of positions and account. If I calculate the current loss of the open positions on top of the used margins of individual trades I get the difference between the account and that free margin. That difference makes 19% for me right now. Is it that figure that I should worry to not exceed 30%, or is it still ok to look only at the margins of the individual trades (my 16%) even when the positions are (hopefully) temporarily on (possibly big) loss?
- I have some ideas on Craig's range-ATR indicator, but I need to think about them a bit more before posting too much too early. Dale mentioned my earlier tests and based on them I can say that if you blindly go and follow VS with C=1, it will be a disaster for any forex pair (don't know about CFD). You definitely need something to assist in entries and exits.
J.
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