[pipsquito]

Originally Posted by Andrewunknown

Hard to believe this comment was 750 pips ago and it's only been a few short days. 6 weeks and a drop of almost 3000 pips.

I quoted the above to key in on one thing: rising wedges (192.64 on 03/17 to 215.89 on 07/22) retrace their advance and then continue the prior trend - which is downward from last year's high @ 252.

Noteworthy as it is that 192.64 was breached, it's actually the function of the pattern. It made good sense to be very wary of a bounce there because it was the year low and low of (the first leg of) the downtrend that began last year; but again, that was only the initial target, not likely to be the terminus of the decline according to the pattern.

Here's something I posted about a month ago:

Fair value v. perceived value: what is the fair value of USD v. the EUR, the GBP, the YEN, the CAD, etc.? Disagreement over this point makes the market in which we trade. What better resource to gauge perceived value than the market itself? But, traders - for various reasons - are often deluded, insisting on asserting their own perception of fair value vis-a-vis naked market behavior. This is often where bottom (or top) picking comes into play. Expressions put forth by any trader such as "It surely can't go down any further than this" and such practices as buying at support with a very liberal or no stop loss because you're "all but certain" price will bounce are examples of the delusional superimposition of opinion onto the wider market as objective fact.

What's the intrinsic value of the GBP vis-a-vis JPY? 1:192? 1:252? 1:170? Do any of us have any clue? No. We can't answer that for any currency pair because we don't have a comprehensive grasp of the fundamental picture and the intuitive/computational faculties capable of figuring the answer. As Origen famously said once upon a time, "God knows". In fact, it is our collective inability to answer this question that creates a market (any market) in the first place.

Andrew...I hope you make a lot of money, because you REALLY know this stuff...