[dpaterso]

Good (Saturday) evening all!!!

Ahhhh!!! A nice clean keyboard is like a new pair of shoes (I never replace only open up and clean and 'silicone' so that the keys are nice and smooth and 'bouncy'. Besides: 'they' don't make keyboards decent keyboards anymore in my opinion)!!! RIGHT: that concludes my 'typing test'!!!

NOW for matters at hand!!!

kaalilaatikko

Yep: as I suspected you would have been dealt a 'bad hand' this week unfortuantely but nobody saw that coming. Having said THAT though: what I DO NOT understand is that (as I mentioned previously) I'm not close to any SAR's (using a 3.1 constant) (with the exception of Dell and THAT is only because of the massive move down after they released their quarterly results and I only bought AFTER that move down i.e. the next day at the open so the VS has not even had time to 'settle down' and 'work itself out' i.e. the signals it's giving now are of no use until fourteen days past that move). And in addition to THAT: most of the stock trades I'm in I got in BEFORE I started using the VSC(1) for entries so at this point I would probably not be in very many of them ANYWAY. I'm long most of the financials and one or two transport stocks at the moment. I have alreay taken profit on some trades (Freddie Mac for one) that I posted last week or the week before.

As far as forex goes: because you're also in EUR/ZAR and GBP/ZAR I'm assuming that you took the same signals as I did. I'm also long GBP/BGN and short EUR/GBP. GBP/NOK has indeed given a signal so I'll place that order on Sunday night. I'm also long EUR/CAD (which as I mentioned has given me a SAR signal) and short CAD/CHF. I'm long Gold and Silver as well. MOST of these positions are in losses at the moment (as a matter of fact only EUR/GBP and GBP/BGN are in profit at the moment BUT: it's ONLY THE 6TH OF THE MONTH)!!! (I'm not giving details of my, let's call them 'private', trades at GCI because nobody else has an account there but aside from the Frankfurt DAX and Brazil's Bovespa Index I'd say that most of the trades open THERE are the same trades that I have open at Delta NOW using the VSC(1)).

One thing you have to bear in mind (as mentioned before): not ALL GBP/??? pairs are going to go in the SAME direction ALL of the time (and the same as with any other pair). I mean: WHO is to say that the GBP cannot strengthen while at the same the EUR can strengthen as WELL??? What would happen??? EUR would fall against the GBP BUT strengthen against the USD and same with the GBP!!! Take a look at USD/TRY for example. The USD 'took off like a rocket a couple of weeks ago' but the move on USD/TRY (and USD/RON is I'm not mistaken) do not even SHOW any 'extraordinary' moves on the USD. See my point???

Craig:

What I'm saying is this:

I've watched the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P DAILY (HOURLY) for almost two years now and that, coupled with what I know NOW, is why I'm saying what I'm saying. In other words: I do NOT have the knowledge nor do I have the experience in this business to be able to 'call' the state of the American economy. I DO, however, NOW, have the knowledge and experience to know that selloffs similar to that of Thursday and Friday are 'emotive' and 'overdone' and the indices ALWAYS recover after that. A year ago would I have 'bailed' the moment I saw that selloff coming??? FOR SURE!!! Will I NOW??? Definitely not!!! Maybe they don't recover for LONG but: recover they do and always enough to either BE or make profit.

Personally: the 'tone' of BOTH of these posts AGAIN worry me i.e. you just CAN NOT expect EVERY SINGLE TRADE to turn to profit and stay in profit right from the outset JUST BECAUSE you or I are of the opinion that we have good trading systems and in addition to THAT you CAN NOT expect that 100% of your trades are going to close at profit. I KNOW you're saying to yourself that you already know this and you've heard it all before but you need to hear it again. I mean: at any given time or 'snapshot in time' I show MORE losses than profits and yet I always close a month 'up'. It's just 'the nature of the beast'. OK: I know that there are those of you who do not agree with my 'Enron' system but be that as it may: I am NOT the one that is decreasing my account balances on a constant basis. Of course it takes me longer to show profits on 'Enron'd' positions because I have to wait to 'Un-Enron' the positions BUT in the meantime I've opened and made profit on other trades.

At this point to be honest I'm not quite sure what to say or how to help. I cannot fathom how we are all following the same systems and yet some are doing better than others??? If ANYBODY has an explanation for this then please DO let me know!!!

Edit:

Just one thing:

I just read J.'s post again:

Just to be clear: you DO wait for the close but you DO NOT simply close or 'Enron' a position AT MARKET i.e. you place a stop order either to close the position totally and realise the loss or 'Enron' IF EXECUTED. I don't know if THAT would have made a difference because I don't know which positions you are referring to (the ones that you closed at losses). I also don't know if it wil make you feel any better but look at it THIS way: by placing an order there is at least a CHANCE that the price will turn again in your favour whereas if you just SAR or close at market there is a 100% chance that even if it DOES you're not going to be any better off!!! Look at it this way: by THAT stage you're already SO 'down' that a few more $$$ really is not going to make that much more of a difference!!!

Another edit:

I was just reading some more posts (back) and J.'s post again. One thing you ALSO have to remember is this: ALL the stuff that YOU are reading about and that YOU have just found out the banks and the institutions knew about LONG ago. In other words: YES we've all read that the UK may go into recession and YES we've all read that the EU may follow suit and YES we've all read that the RBA is going to cut rates in Australia and YES we've all read that the RBNZ is going to cut rates in New Zealand (need I go on). The point is: ALL of this is ALREADY factored in so that by the time these things DO happen it no longer affects the price as it did in the past (which is why I cannot understand how anyone makes a living out of 'trading the news' nowadays). What I'm saying is that JUST BECAUSE the UK MAY go into recession does NOT mean that the GBP is automatically going to just drop through the floor i.e. for all WE know it already has!!! Same with the EUR. And I'll tel you what: SAME with the NYSE!!!

And anothe LAST edit for tonight:

As you know I have Bloomberg TV on next to me all day so I try to 'pick up' on things.

In the past two weeks I've heard to interesting 'tidbits' of thought.

1) In one interview the person was saying that buying Gold at the bottom was the thing to do. HOWEVER: WHO KNOWS where the bottom is??? The point is: whether it's here NOW or it keeps going down a bit further at SOME point you have to get in if you're going to trade it. If you're going to wait for THE bottom: by the time that you've seen that THE bottom has been reached the price has already turned!!! Same with stocks (financials). I mean: AT WHAT POINT do you say that THE bottom has been reached??? When Fannie is a $0.01???

2) (And this is MORE interesting to me anyway): at least two people mentioned that they were 'long only shops'. SO: it would sure seem to me that my 'long only fetish' is INDEED a 'method' (especially for stocks). As I've said: VERY seldom have I gone short on anything and the times that I HAVE gone short I've sat with BS losses and waited forever and a day for BE or a little profit. Time will tell I suppose but I STILL feel FAR more comfortable taking ONLY long trades. Again: THIS is 'just me'.