Quote:
Originally Posted by tymen1
I see a morning star at the end of box 2 - and this correctly predicted the price action to go up for more than 10 candles!! 
At the end of box 3 I see a clear piercing pattern - and accordingly the price action went up for 5 candles (good, but 10 is better, of course). |
Thank you for your input.
Umm, I’m not quite sure where you get the precise target to pattern ratio from regards the candle prints, but that’s by the way.
Candles, bars or whatever one uses to interpret & gauge the order flow, are simply reflections of trader psychology. Nothing more.
Attempting to pigeon hole targets or place oneself at negative risk to cost exposure (trading against the dominant flows) is counter-productive in the long term.
Obviously, what individuals do with their own time & money is of little relevance to me, but if experience in this business has taught me one thing, it’s not to abuse dominant order flow or risk variables at any cost.
I’m not a follower or a big fan of these trading bulletin boards at all, but what I have noticed in the very short time that I’ve spent observing comments & posts (both here & briefly at one other similar venue) is the intense & almost obsessive fascination with micro-analysis that unfolds on these retail sites.
I can certainly understand where (& why) these high failure rates amongst non-professional participants emanate from.
The point I was attempting to make on that post was the fact the serious money was/is biased to the downside on the Pound. The correct market stance, from both a risk & value perspective was to continue to sell rallies, not buy support.
Those bars popping off that base at circa 1.7550 were displaying nervous, yet clear bearish psychology/behavior (confirmed by the reluctance to break back through established lower high momentum flow). To those who are able to read trader psychology and/or order flow, it merely continued to confirm the short bias.
Art.