For me the answer is really that you cannot know for sure. I mean, if I could know for sure where price is going I wouldn't bother with a trading system, I would just place a trade and close it whenever price reached the preset point.
But anyways, a couple of observations on your chart:
1. your 38.2 level looks like a support to me, I can count 6 candles around the 6th November at 21:30 touching the level and closing above or on top of it
2. price at your point A reacted again to the same support level, seeing it going up was not that strange
The stochastics crossing down is a valid setup as far as the shallow retracement technique mentioned in this thread goes: now how would I had traded this setup? I would have placed a pending short order at the 23.6 level, with a stop between the 45.0 and the 50.0 level. Since this 23.6 level was never hit and price retraced back to the 61.8 level, I would then have canceled my short order and looked for another opportunity.
I'm looking forward to see other observations from the other people following this thread, and if daedalus wanted to chime in it would be great, too.
|