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Old 04-18-2007, 12:47 AM
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akeakamai akeakamai is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Oil country, Canada
Posts: 275
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Well I think I've come up with a lot of solutions since my first post, including some of the things you just mentioned.

I'm now working on the daily charts exclusively, and to increase my signal count, I decided to work with USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, EUR/USD, and GBP/USD. This isn't as much hassle as it seems, since my system is pretty simple and its the daily chart. Also, I "loosened up" my indicators. So now I'm getting more signals (about 10 per year per pair), which are shorter term (no more than a month). So this partially handles my concerns with carry cost and lack of signals.

Instead of getting rid of short trades altogether, I have a "biased indicator" towards buy signals, which essentially weeds out most of the short signals, but still allows the ones that give really "good" signals. Also, I've decided to use Fibonacci retracement as a means of determining my exits (which makes sense since my system is based on trend reversals). And I use the 0.5 as a P/T for short signals, and 0.618 as a P/T for long signals to further favour the long trades, which I've noticed "bounce" harder than my short signals. And to note, my S/L is exactly 1/2 of my P/T just as a rule, to keep a good risk:reward ratio.

I've also considered fine-tuning my Fib. retracements by figuring out the "average max. retracement" which might end up being more or less than 0.618 for instance, but for now, the default levels seem to work pretty good.

And also I should note that my system for USD/JPY and EUR/JPY is identical, as is the one for GBP/USD and EUR/USD (with the exception of some Fib. retrace levels). As is, scanning the chart for signals takes 5-10 min a day, a very reasonable time investment I'd say. Since I've just penned out my system, I haven't done any tallies on pip profit, but overall it looks pretty good. The win% is about 75%, which combined with the set risk/reward ratio, gives me the idea that this could be pretty profitable. I'll post pip profit for each system as soon as I can.

One more thought before I shutup. Some of these buy/sell biases are based on long-term (years) trends, and I suspect that over the years I'll have to modify these biases to reflect prevailing trends or interest rate changes. Thus said, I see a pretty universal system that seems like it could well stand the test of time in the FX. And if anyone is interested in the indicators, I'd be glad to share, since I've pretty much decided on those now.

Sorry bout' the length gang! Hope this is mildly interesting to someone
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