Range Trading Pairs:
EURUSD
AUDUSD
AUDNZD






Event Risk Euro Zone and US

Trading Tip – Similar to the range that formed in January and the first half of February, price action since the break above 1.3060 has once again been relegated to congestion bands. However, caution should be taken with playing another bounce higher for EURUSD since the daily chart is showing a relatively clear heads-and-shoulders formation. Typically, such formations result in broken necklines, but a heavy defense with a confluence of fibs, ranges, a moving average and long-term rising trend suggest the attractive risk reward may be worth it. Watch for reactions to US indicators, especially if spot is in the area of 1.3100 just before a release.
Euro Zone – The European calendars have almost completely cleared out. Though the week, the smaller Euro Zone member economies will release their respective consumer inflation reports, which will culminate in the region wide measurement due on Thursday. However, since the German indicator has already been printed, many market participants will overlook the lagging news. For similar reasons, the fourth quarter Euro Zone employment print will fall on deaf ears as the month jobless data is already available and in fact gives a better read on labor health. Though it is quiet, there may still be some action from the calendar yet. Tuesday brings the Euro Zone and German ZEW reports. With the VAT slowly showing through data, it may help erode confidence in the currency.
US – After a relatively active week for economic indicators, the US calendar thins out in the days ahead. However, each indicator holds its own relevance for market participants and can therefore garner significant action should it print far off of the consensus market. The greatest level of event risk rests with Monday’s retail sales report which has consistently been a market mover as the consumer sector is seen as the engine underlying US growth. Beyond that, the inflation complex will take control. Expectations for the price gauges have been muffled recently as the Fed holds its neutral tone, though big divergences can quickly call back the possibility of a rate shift. Therefore, Friday’s CPI will be the pinnacle of rate speculation. Also due that day will be the first sentiment survey from the University of Michigan – which has recently been overlooked as it consistently hovers near five-year highs.

Data for March 9 – March 16
Data for March 9 – March 16
Date
Euro Zone Economic Date
Date
US Economic Data
Mar 13
German ZEW Survey (MAR)
Mar 13
Advanced Retail Sales (FEB)
Mar 14
Euro Zone Employment (4Q)
Mar 14
Import Price Index (FEB)
Mar 15
Euro Zone CPI (FEB)
Mar 15
Producer Price Index (FEB)

Mar 16
Consumer Price Index (FEB)

Mar 16
U ofMichigan Consumer Confidence (MAR P)






Event Risk Australia and US
Trading Tip – Though the fundamental calendars have lightened up from the previous week, an even spread of data from both sides could easily trigger breakouts on surprising numbers. As AUDUSD works its way through the sluggish and active sessions, a close eye should be kept on the data wires during US releases – especially if spot is near any of one of the aforementioned support or resistance levels prior to the event. Also, the slow nature of the pair may necessitate patience for swings to develop.
Australia – The Australian dollar has weathered a number of key events (fourth quarter GDP, TD inflation and fourth quarter GDP), and now it is time for a comparatively reserved week of data. For much of the period, second and third tier indicators will fill in the inactive void when only Sydney liquidity is online. Indicators on home loans, business confidence and consumer confidence from Monday through Wednesday will generate modest interest. On the one hand, each of these readings will be useful in the central bank’s long-term outlook. On the other, the next rate decision is a ways away and none of these three is necessarily important enough to encourage a shift on their own. However, Thursday’s employment report will offer a direct read in on consumer spending habits and future inflationary pressures.
US – After a relatively active week for economic indicators, the US calendar thins out in the days ahead. However, each indicator holds its own relevance for market participants and can therefore garner significant action should it print far off of the consensus market. The greatest level of event risk rests with Monday’s retail sales report which has consistently been a market mover as the consumer sector is seen as the engine underlying US growth. Beyond that, the inflation complex will take control. Expectations for the price gauges have been muffled recently as the Fed holds its neutral tone, though big divergences can quickly call back the possibility of a rate shift. Therefore, Friday’s CPI will be the pinnacle of rate speculation. Also due that day will be the first sentiment survey from the University of Michigan – which has recently been overlooked as it consistently hovers near five-year highs.

Data for March 9 – March 16
Data for March 9 – March 16
Date
Australian Economic Date
Date
US Economic Data
Mar 11
Home Loans (JAN)
Mar 13
Advanced Retail Sales (FEB)
Mar 12
NAB Business Confidence (FEB)
Mar 14
Import Price Index (FEB)
Mar 13
Westpac Consumer Confidence (MAR)
Mar 15
Producer Price Index (FEB)
Mar 14
Employment Change (FEB)
Mar 16
Consumer Price Index (FEB)

Mar 16
U of Michigan Consumer Confidence (MAR P)






Event Risk Australia and New Zealand
Trading Tip – The AUDNZD’s choppy trade seems like it will hold through another pass at its recent range. However, jerky moves could quickly turn into a momentum slide depending on the action in the crosses. Both the Aussie and New Zealand dollar are the primary high yield currencies purchased in the typical long carry trade. Since the strategy has started to gain back some of its prominence, both currencies have risen – albeit unevenly. Aussie and kiwi crosses denominated in USD, JPY and CHF should be watched in order to determine which side of the AUDNZD will rally or fall quicker.
Australia – The Australian dollar has weathered a number of key events (fourth quarter GDP, TD inflation and fourth quarter GDP), and now it is time for a comparatively reserved week of data. For much of the period, second and third tier indicators will fill in the inactive void when only Sydney liquidity is online. Indicators on home loans, business confidence and consumer confidence from Monday through Wednesday will generate modest interest. On the one hand, each of these readings will be useful in the central bank’s long-term outlook. On the other, the next rate decision is a ways away and none of these three is necessarily important enough to encourage a shift on their own. However, Thursday’s employment report will offer a direct read in on consumer spending habits and future inflationary pressures.
New Zealand – New Zealand’s economic calendar will start the week off rather hot. At the RBNZ’s meeting last week, Governor Alan Bollard made specific mention of housing and consumer spending as key drivers behind unwanted inflation. Coincidently, a housing price indicator is scheduled for release Monday, while the monthly retail sales report hits the wires a day later. Any surprises underlying either or both of this indicators could mix with carry trade flows to really get the currency moving. Later in the week, the fourth quarter manufacturing activity report will measure the strength of a sector that has actually shown a reaction to high lending rates. If it comes out weak on the drop in commodity prices and exports, expectations that the March hike will further lean on the first and second quarters’ activity will certainly spread.

Data for March 9 – March 16
Data for March 9 – March 16
Date
Australian Economic Date
Date
New Zealand Economic Data
Mar 11
Home Loans (JAN)
Mar 11
House Prices (FEB)
Mar 12
NAB Business Confidence (FEB)
Mar 12
Retail Sales (JAN)
Mar 13
Westpac Consumer Confidence (MAR)
Mar 13
Manufacturing Activity (4Q)
Mar 14
Employment Change (FEB)
Mar 15
ANZ Business PMI (FEB)



Pair
EURUSD
AUDUSD
AUDNZD
Date Added
Mar-05
Feb-23
Mar-02