GFT Daily Market Commentary

[GFTforex]

Forex Market Commentary for May 16, 2008 by Cornelius LucaGFT Daily Market Commentary

There was no penury of data on Thursday, great for the euro and bad for the dollar, but the US currency ended once again little changed. Today we’ll be looking at housing starts and the University of Michigan, both expected to show economic weakness, but the dollar retains upside bias.

Euro/dollar

Euro/dollar gave up minor gains to close flat on Thursday as well, and remained in an inside range for the third consecutive day. Will today be a one-way Friday? Once again, my model remains short, but only a close below 1.5394 would encourage the bearish outlook.
Immediate support is still seen at 1.5432. Strong support then comes at 1.5394. Below 1.5365, distant support follows 1.5287.
Initial resistance is at 1.5505. The next level us 1.5545. Above 1.5600, euro/dollar retains additional resistance at 1.5685.
Oscillators are bearish.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen made a weak decline on Thursday, but my model remains long. The upside still looks limited, but I would sell dollars only on a stop.

Immediate resistance is at 105.00. Strong resistance remains at 105.60 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 105.10 and 106.10.
Initial support is now at 104.50 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 104.00 and 105.00. Distant support moved up to 103.40 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 102.90 and 103.90.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar encountered choppy trading and close unchanged on Thursday as well. My system remains short, and the short-term outlook is slightly bearish.

Immediate support is at 1.9425. Below 1.9363, support remains at 1.9273. Distant support looms at 1.9220 and 1.9185.
Initial resistance still comes at 1.9515. The next levels are 1.9580 and 1.9635. Above 1.9690, there is distant resistance at 1.9840.
Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly lower
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss reversed early losses, and my model remains long. I still need more proof that this upmove is here to stay.

Initial resistance moved to 1.0600. If this close level gives way, expect a test of 1.0650. Distant resistance is at 1.0745.
Immediate support is remains at 1.0480. This is followed by 1.0445, 1.0410 and 1.0300. Distant support is then pegged at 1.0255.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish