Pro Commentary Lite ... 27th May 2008 ... USDCHF

[GFTforex]

An excerpt from Pro Commentary Price: 1.0232
Resistance:1.02751.03001.03311.0362Support:1.02031.01861.01541.0126

Bias:I still suspect that the 1.0203-14 area should support for a second recovery else see 1.0126 min
Daily Bullish:The break below 1.0261 provided the losses back to 1.0232 and just below to 1.0214. I still see the 1.0203-14 area as modestly strong support and while this holds the risk still does look higher. Back above 1.0275 would provide the trigger for a move back through 1.0300 and probably 1.0331 en route 103.53-72 again. At this point I feel it will cap for additional losses. Only break provides a stronger bullish signal for 1.0420 and 1.0467-87 at least. MT Bullish:27th May: I still have the expectation of seeing a move down to the 1.0134 level at least and possibly just below but from there the risk will be back higher again. An earlier break above 1.0402 confirms. Daily Bearish:I feel we are still probably in a correction that could still see a test of 1.0353-72. While this is possible the 1.0203-14 area should support. Thus only a break below the 1.0200 level would imply direct follow-through lower to 1.0126-34 at least and at which point we need be more cautious. We should also note supports around 1.0073-1.0108. MT Bearish:22nd May: We are already close to the 1.0220 target and with this direct test I suspect there is now a greater chance of seeing the 1.0134 support. Also note the next area at 0.9986-1.0018 which should be the max we see.
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

27th May
The pullback to the 1.0353 high came in 3 waves and thus we face the possibility of a complex correction. Thus we need to allow for a flat correction back to 1.0232 and possibly an expanded flat to 1.0203 both of which could still see a move tot eh 41.4% retracement in Wave iv at 1.0372.
Overall this would have potential to the 50% retracement in Wave –x- at 1.0134.
Also note a 76.4% projection in a direct move lower to 1.0073.
Ian Copsey
See Also

• Pro Commentary
  Probably the most extensive technical report in the market