Pro Commentary Lite ... 29th May 2008 ... GBPUSD

[GFTforex]

An excerpt from Pro Commentary Price: 1.9792
Resistance:1.98261.98491.98801.9909Support:1.97641.97321.97031.9685

Bias:Short term is mixed but I am beginning to suspect that the 1.9880-09 area should cap
Daily Bullish:Price has most certainly been very choppy and it does leave the underlying wave structure under some cloud. However, I am beginning to suspect that the prior bullish structure has failed. However, the short term structure could provide one more rally while the 1.9732-64 area supports. A move above 1.9826 and 1.9849 would provide a test of 1.9880-09 but at this point I feel it will hold. Thus only above 1.9910 would accelerate gains to 1.9950 and then the 2.0002-31 resistance. MT Bullish:28th May: Yesterday’s decline is causing significant doubts over the very bullish stance. There is resistance at 1.9880-09 that could hold or failing that at 1.9950 and 1.9997-05. Beyond will need confirmation. Daily Bearish:Yesterday’s refusal to go down along with the Euro was a surprise but may only imply room for one more minor high. Watch the 1.9880-09 area and if this is tested and holds then the downside could become more aggressive. An earlier break of 1.9732-64 would suggest the downside is occurring directly to push through 1.9703 and probably the next support at 1.9630-51 at least. This should be treated with a little care – breach would accelerate losses for 1.9567 at least. MT Bearish:28th May: Failure in a more aggressive rally is causing risk of more losses. However, until 1.9700 breaks there may still be a little more room on the upside. Below 1.97 sees losses eventually to the 1.9335-63 lows.
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

29th May
The rally is struggling although it is still possible to generate a bullish structure with yesterday’s 1.9703 being a possible Wave –b- in Wave –iii-. This will require a prompt move above 1.9851 but also 1.9880-09. Only if seen would I begin to consider resurrecting the 261.8% projection in Wave –iii- at 2.0130.
Ahead of that the risk is that the decline to 1.9363 was a rather messy daily Wave (a) from 2.0397. This implies a 50% pullback at 1.9880 and we should also observe the 1.9909 corrective high. While this holds we could then actually see resumption of a much stronger downtrend…
Ian Copsey
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