GFT Daily Market Commentary

[GFTforex]

Forex Market Commentary for June 25, 2008 by Cornelius LucaGFT Daily Market Commentary

The dollar plummeted on Tuesday on news the Conference Board's consumer confidence index collapsed to a 16-year low in June, but it reduced losses on the day. The FOMC will leave rates unchanged on Wednesday, and probably for the rest of the year, but look for what they have to say. Keep an eye on the volatile durable goods orders and the new homes sales; the data should be bad but it’s probably discounted and the dollar should attempt to bounce.

Euro/dollar

The euro/dollar has been alternating up and down days, and Tuesday should be the down day. My model went long and the pair must break out of an inside range before the direction becomes clearer.
Good support is seen at 1.5510. Below 1.5470, the next levels are 1.5430,1.5380 and 1.5305.

Strong resistance is at 1.5620. Above 1.5650, euro/dollar sees additional resistance at 1.5727.
Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen attempted breaks both ways on Tuesday, but when the dust settled, it remained around the 107.95 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45. My model remains short, but sideways trading is likely.
Initial support is at 107.45. Strong support is at 106.75 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25. Distant support is at 105.60.

Above 108.45, further resistance is pegged at 109.15 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 109.65 and 108.65.
Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar made a mild recovery on Tuesday, but got stuck in an inside range. I expect only choppy trading on Wednesday with a bias on the downside.

Immediate support is now seen at 1.9650. Below 1.9605, the next level is 1.9560. This is followed by 1.9500.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.9720. Above 1.9760, further resistance comes at 1.9800, 1.9890 and 1.9940.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss is still alternating up and down days, and Wednesday should be an up day, if this silly pattern continues. My model remains long.

Initial resistance remains at 1.0490. Above 1.0540, resistance is at 1.0622.

Immediate support is still seen at 1.0400. Below 1.0336, further support comes at 1.0290.
Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish