GFT Daily Market Commentary
Forex Market Commentary for July 10, 2008 by Cornelius LucaGFT Daily Market Commentary
The dollar’s attempts to pad its gains were unsuccessful on Wednesday, as Iran’s test of missiles triggered a knee-jerk reaction. The US currency sank broadly and my model went short. Firing nine missiles doesn’t change a thing, but the US equity indices sinking into recession do. Thus, choppy trading should continue in FX.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar rallied on Wednesday, but remained stuck in an inside range. My model is now long, but with the market alternating up and down days, I’m not sure for how long. Expect choppy trading.
Immediate resistance is at 1.5765. Above 1.5820, euro/dollar faces key resistance at 1.5905.
Below 1.5710, support now comes at 1.5675. The next good levels are at 1.5630 and 1.5575.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen fell on Wednesday, but once again didn’t break any new ground. Expect more choppy trading today as well, but the upside seems limited.
Good support is at 106.75 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25.
Initial resistance is at 107.25. Strong resistance iis at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar rallied sharply and unexpectedly and obliterated losses made in the previous two days. My model is long, but the upside looks limited.
Initial resistance is seen at 1.9865. Above 1.9908, cable now faces distant resistance at 2.0004.
Below 1.9775, support is now seen at 1.9730. Distant support is now seen at 1.9650.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss fell from a nearly two-week high and formed an incipient bearish reversal formation. Expect further choppy trading, but my model is now short.
Initial support is now seen at 1.0250. The next level is 1.0215. Distant support is seen at 1.0166.
Above 1.0320, resistance remains at 1.0415 and 1.0450. Distant resistance comes at 1.0540.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
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