Pound, Euro Data Miss Again - Surprise From the BoE?

[DailyFx]

EZ and UK data once again missed expectations continuing the two week pattern of weaker than forecast economic results.



Talking Points

• Japanese Yen: spurts through 107.00 on early European demand
• Australian Dollar; Employment blows past expectations as demand remains strong
• Euro: French IP contract sharply nn high euro, oil
• British Pound: Halifax falls twice as much as forecast
• US Dollar: Jobless claims on tap

Pound, Euro Data Miss Again –Surprise From the BoE?

EZ and UK data once again missed expectations continuing the two week pattern of weaker than forecast economic results. In the EZ, French Industrial Production contracted sharply dropping to –2.6% from –0.6% projected as higher exchange rates and higher oil prices decimated demand. The print was the worst reading in nearly three years and pulled the EURUSD off its session highs of 1.5762. The unit however found support near the 1.5700 and continues to build a base there.

There appears to be two reasons why EURUSD is maintaining it bullish bias. First, oil has corrected but not crumbled refusing to break below the $130/bbl level. Tensions in the Persian Gulf, with Iran continuing to test fire its missiles are keeping crude well bid providing no relief from inflationary pressures which in turn is seen as euro bullish. Two, some market players believe that Mr. Trichet’s neutral stance to the contrary, the ECB may have one more rate hike left in its arsenal before the year end, especially if headline inflation remains at these elevated levels. Euro therefore continues to attract speculative flows as the yield story is revived. The danger to that view of course is that the slowdown in the EZ will become progressively worse as the summer turns to fall curtailing any further tightening by Mr. Trichet and company.

In UK signs of a slowdown are becoming much more prominent with the Halifax house survey just the latest piece of evidence to show that the country is teetering on the verge of a recession. Prices fell by –2.0% versus -0.5% forecast as the UK housing sector continues to collapse. At this point there is no argument that UK economic growth has declined significantly. The only question for the market is whether the BoE will begin to tackle these issues or will continue to stubbornly focus on inflation at the risk of tipping the country into an actual recession. Today’ s BoE rate decision is expected to produce no change in policy, but the MPC may surprise the market with post announcement communiqué perhaps addressing some of these lingering concerns.

The one exception to the downcast mood is Australia where employment data once again managed to surprise to the upside producing 28K jobs versus 10K forecast. After last months shocking –19K loss, many market observers believed that the boom Down Under was coming to an end. However, the rebound in labor demand suggests that the Aussie economy is maintaining momentum and given the underlying strength of the job market the RBA is unlikely to even consider any easing until 2009 at the earliest.

Meanwhile the North American session once again sees very little event risk with only the jobless claims on tap. That report however could prove damaging to the dollar especially if it prints once again above the psychologically important 400K mark. Unlike the NFPs which are subject to numerous revisions and derisions by many market participants, jobless claims leave no room for doubt as to the stare of the labor market and an upward climb in that report does not bode well for the US economy.

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