Risk Reversal Rates and Long Term Elliott Pattern
Current Price: .8105
Wave analysis indicates that the Aussie will extend a bit higher. A measured objective is at .8243 and chart resistance is at .8180. However, a major turn lies just ahead. Both the risk reversal rate (the most extreme since November 2004) and long term wave analysis make the argument for a reversal in the next few weeks.
The 5th wave (of the larger 5 wave structure from .7678) is in progress and will likely subdivide and extend a bit further before reversing. Wave v (from .8038) would equal wave i (.7678 - .7883) at .8243. The 1996 high at .8180 is also a level to watch. RSI is also divergent with the recent high. With a momentum extreme put in at the top of wave 3 our confidence is high that this rally will lead to a reversal. Watch the cited levels.
The long term picture makes a strong case for a top to form in the next week or two. There are 5 waves up from the 2001 low so the next big move is most likely a decline back to the 4th wave of one less degree (near .7000) before the long term uptrend resumes. Additionally, wave 4 is a triangle. Triangles end with a terminal thrust, which is what the current rally will likely prove to be.
The risk reversal rate has just declined from the mot extreme level since November 2004, when the AUDUSD topped out near .7950. This evidence alone supports a reversal.