08-25-2008, 06:10 PM
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FX Analyst
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Join Date: Jan 2007
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Forex Technicals: The Day Ahead, August 26
We favor a larger recovery for the EURUSD and GBPUSD, although confidence in the EURUSD short term count is not high. The AUDUSD looks likely to slip to a new low.
As long as price is above 1.4672, we are bullish, expecting a correction back to at least 1.4981. Be very cautious though given the presence of a potential head and shoulders continuation pattern.
The USDJPY rally from 108.12 to 110.28 is in 5 waves, which is bullish. Support should be strong at the 61.8% of 108.12-110.28 at 108.95.
The decline below 1.8512 makes the GBPUSD decline from late July in 5 waves. A correction underway that reaches at least 1.88 should be underway now.
We got a decline on Thursday, which we were expecting but CHF strength proved short lived as the pair traded north of 1.10 again today. As long as price remains above the support line shown above, there is no reason to fade strength.
We’ll reiterate what we wrote this morning. That is, the USDCAD rally from .9974 is viewed as the 3rd wave of a 3 wave correction from .9055. In other words, an important top is expected. The problem with placing the top at 1.0726 is that the initial decline from there is sloppy and not indicative of a change in trend. This leaves the USDCAD open to a new high.
The decline from .8813 is an impulse (5 waves), indicating that the trend is still down and that a new low is likely. A small 2nd wave may be complete at.8688, but a push above there would not change the call for a new low (below .8591).
The NZDUSD rally from .6824 is viewed as wave A of an A-B-C recovery. Wave B is underway now and should reach .6907-.6973 before wave C turns higher.
Jamie Saettele writes Forex Technicals: The Day Ahead, Monday-Thursday (published at 6 pm EST), Daily Technicals every weekday morning (9 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), and analysis of currency crosses throughout the week. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
Contact at jsaettele@dailyfx.com
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