GFT Daily Market Commentary

[GFTforex]

Forex Market Commentary for August 26, 2008 by Cornelius LucaGFT Daily Market Commentary


The dollar followed divergent paths on a Monday thinned by the London holiday, as euro/yen and euro/Swiss drove the market. The US currency rallied versus the commodity currencies, fell against the yen and closed little changed versus the European currencies. With the US equity markets under pressure, the dollar should make a choppy decline. Keep an eye on the German Ifo report and on the US new home sales and consumer confidence reports.


Euro/dollar


Euro/dollar recovered most of early losses caused by sales of euro/yen and euro/Swiss. It should attempt another recovery in the short term before the next decline. My model is still long, but the immediate risk is on the downside.

Initial support is now seen at 1.4697. The next levels are 1.4631 and 1.4600.

Immediate resistance comes at 1.4805. This is followed by 1.4845, 1.4902 and 1.4950.

Oscillators are mixed.


NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Dollar/yen


Dollar/yen is alternating up and down days, and Monday was a down day – eventually. This is because the pair aggressively reversed early gains. The initial risk is on the upside now – if 109.15 holds.

Immediate resistance remains at 109.65. Strong resistance follows at 110.35 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 109.85 and 110.85. Distant resistance is 111.60 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 112.10 and 111.10.

Strong support is at 109.15 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 109.65 and 108.65.

Oscillators are declining.


NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Sterling/dollar


Sterling/dollar remains weak, even though it managed to crawl to flat from a new low for its downmove. The medium-term outlook remains negative, while the short-term outlook is mixed.

Immediate support moved up to 1.8450. Further supports are at 1.8405, 1.8330 and 1.8190.

Initial resistance now comes at 1.8565. The next likely cap remains 1.8620.

Oscillators are falling.


NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Dollar/Swiss franc


Dollar/Swiss franc has been alternating up and down days for six days and my model remains barely short. The immediate risk is now on the upside while the market is trying to make up its mind.

Initial support is still pegged at the nearby level at 1.0910. Below 1.0855, support remains at 1.0725.

Immediate resistance is at 1.1030. Above it, key resistance remains at 1.1185.

Oscillators are declining.


NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed