GFT Daily Market Commentary

[GFTforex]

Forex Market Commentary for September 15, 2008 by Cornelius LucaGFT Daily Market Commentary


The dollar collapsed both on Friday and Monday, initially on concern about the credit crunch and the fortunes of some investment banks, and then after plans to rescue Lehman failed, the Bank of America is about to buy Merrill Lynch, and AIG is facing a forced restructuring. The US currency had recovered too much too fast, and it should now remain under pressure.



Euro/dollar


Euro/dollar surged on Friday and then on Monday, and my model went long. A more sustained recovery is under way.

Above 1.4480, resistance is seen at 1.4545. Above 1.4625, resistance is at 1.4810.

Immediate support is at 1.4330. Below 1.4180, support is at 1.4110.

Oscillators are mixed.


NEAR-TERM: Bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish


Dollar/yen


Dollar/yen has been alternating up and down days for five days and my model went short early Monday. The downside is favored.

Initial support is at 105.10. This followed at 104.50 by a 50-point pivot, which targets 104.00 and 105.00. The next level is 103.40 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 102.90 and 103.90.

Immediate resistance is at 105.60 from a 50-point pivot that targets 105.10 and 106.10. The next resistance moved down to 106.75 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25.

Oscillators are mixed.


NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed


Sterling/dollar


Sterling/dollar surged impressively on Friday and turned my model long. The short term is bullish.

Good resistance is at 1.8120. Above the strong level at 1.8190, further resistance looms at 1.8280.

Below 1.7965, strong support is at 1.7780. This is followed by 1.7672.

Oscillators are mixed.


NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish


Dollar/Swiss franc fell sharply on Friday and Monday to turn my model short. The initial bias is lower.

Immediate support is at 1.1060. Below 1.1010, support is pegged at 1.0885. This is followed by 1.0844.

Initial resistance comes at 1.1200. This is followed by 1.1360.

Oscillators are mixed.


NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish