Pro Commentary Lite 8th May 2007 ... USDCHF

[GFTforex]

An excerpt from FX-Strategy's Pro Commentary


Price: 1.2116
Resistance:1.21351.21691.21881.2223Support:1.21001.20821.20571.2036

Bias:We should now see the 1.2095-1.2105 area support for additional gains back to the 1.2188 high
Daily Bullish:The 1.2075-91 support area held perfectly and we have seen a recovery back to 1.2133 this morning. While the 1.2095-1.2105 area continues to provide support we will look for the upside to extend further and reach the 1.2188 area once again. This does hold risk of a small pullback but overall we will be looking for gains to reach 1.2223 at least with an eventual target around 1.2275.MT Bullish:With the break above 1.2126 we have reviewed and only above 1.2172 would imply extension of the upside back to the 1.2282-90 area (Max 1.2334) but would look for that to cap. (May 2nd)Daily Bearish:With the 1.2075-90 area supporting we can pinpoint the requirements for the downside to resume. First support is around the 1.2095-1.2105 pivot and break here would pressure the 1.2075-90 support again. It is break of this area that would keep the downward momentum intact for a retest of 1.1994-00 initially which should cause a pullback.MT Bearish:We could have seen just a slightly deeper than expected pullback but to generate losses to the 1.1917-44 and 1.1864-78 targets we shall require breach of 1.2100. (May 3rd)

ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS


8th May



We are firming up the revised wave count to label the 1.2188 high as Wave a of Wave iii. The pullback to 1.2089 stalled between the 50% and 58.6% retracement in Wave b and thus we can generate targets for Wave iii.



We note that a 176.4% projection rests at 1.2223 and this should be noted. More convincingly is the 223.6% projection at 1.2275 which is also where Wave c will be equal to Wave a.


Any earlier break below 1.2070 would imply that the 1.2188 high was Wave [b] of Wave [v] and thus we revert to the Wave [v] targets between 1.1944 (61.8%), 1.1917 (66.7%) and 1.1864 (76.4%).
Ian Copsey
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