Pro Commentary Lite ... 18th June 2007 ... GBPUSD

[GFTforex]

An excerpt from FX-Strategy's Pro Commentary


Price: 1.9773
Resistance:1.97811.98151.98521.9876Support:1.97501.97101.96861.9655

Bias:While there is a small risk of seeing 1.9815-24 I feel today should see a correction lower
Daily Bullish:The break above 1.9710 and then 1.9740 peaks has generated gains as suggested but I feel we are close to a short term peak. Resistance lies at 1.9815-24 which should cap. Thus a stronger bullish stance will require a break above 1.9824 which would extend the upside to 1.9852 at least and probably 1.9876. Take care here as I feel this could cap. Next resistance is then found at 1.9914.MT Bullish:The failure to break down yesterday warns of an earlier than expected rally. However, we do need to be cautious and only above 1.9835 would provide strength for 1.9896-1.9934 – then higher. (June 14th)Daily Bearish:It looks as if we have confirmed a low but I don’t think we’ll see any strong extension higher today. Note resistance at 1.9815-24 which I feel should cap. If a test here coincides with a retest of the broken support line in FXS-RSI then this would provide a good selling signal. Below 1.9750 would then confirm losses to 1.9710 and possibly as far as 1.9686 but this should the most we see on the downside. Next support is at the 1.9621 low. MT Bearish:There is increasing evidence that we may have seen a major low at 1.9621. Thus only below 1.9621-50 would signal losses to 1.9545-75 at least – at most 1.9499-17 before higher again. (June 18th)

ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS



14th June



The limited losses seen yesterday do not appear to be in line with losses in Wave –c-. For that we’ll need a quick break below yesterday’s low at 1.9675 to attack the 1.9621 low and then the 58.6%-61.8% daily retracement at 1.9545-75.



Until then I note that if we label the 1.9781 high as Wave a and the 1.9675 low as Wave b then a wave equality target in Wave c would come to 1.9835 which is where the 61.8% retracement in Wave –b- rests.


We need to observe the next reaction as there are a few alternatives here.
Ian Copsey
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