Pro Commentary Lite ... 19th June 2007 ... AUDUSD

[GFTforex]

An excerpt from FX-Strategy's Pro Commentary


Price: 0.8430
Resistance:0.84520.84850.85090.8530Support:0.83970.83620.83310.8319

Bias:Cautiously I prefer seeing 0.8397-04 supporting for a move higher to 0.8478-89
Daily Bullish:Price moved to the 0.8445-50 resistance, and just a couple of points above. It is possible that a corrective peak has edged just above the perfect retracement but with FXS-RSI breaking above its resistance line I tend to prefer a bullish stance. This will require the 0.8397-0.8404 are to support with a move above 0.8439 triggering gains through 0.8452 and to the 0.8478-89 area which should cap for a larger pullback. MT Bullish:It is not impossible that we have seen a major low at 0.8331. To confirm we require a break above 0.8427-50. Once seen the move should gradually rally towards the next major resistance at 0.8594. (June 18th)Daily Bearish:Price has retested and marginally broken the 0.8427-45 resistance. The margin of the break is so small that we do need to be prepared for a second decline. However, I’d prefer to wait for breaks and this will mean the 0.8397-0.8404 area must break and causes losses below 0.8362 and then down to the 0.8319-31 area en route 0.8282. MT Bearish:The reversal from 0.8331 hasn’t quite confirmed the major low was seen and while 0.8427-45 caps there does still remain a small risk that we shall see a further test to the 0.8282-0.8309 area. (June 18th)

ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS


19th June



The prior Wave b at 0.8448 has broken but it is so minor that there is still some ambiguity over whether this formed Wave X or whether it is part of a larger wave higher. Thus take care today. A move above 0.8452 would confirm a small Wave i to 0.8478-89 from where a pullback in Wave iii is likely.


Any earlier dip below 0.8397 would provide the opposite picture and that we shall see a further ABC pattern lower towards the larger 50%-61.8% pullback in Wave [b] between 0.8282-0.8319.
Ian Copsey
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