EURUSD Retail Positioning Grows More Net Short Ahead of the FOMC

[DailyFx]

EURUSD - Retail Positioning Grows More Net Short Ahead of the FOMC
GBPUSD - Nearly 76 Percent of Traders Are Holding Short Positions in the GBPUSD
USDJPY - Positions Outstanding Fall 12% on Profit Taking
USDCHF - Swiss Franc Open Interest Rises by more than 12 percent
USDCAD - Long Positioning Remains Extreme





How to Interpret the SSI? The FXCM SSI is based on proprietary customer flow information and is designed to recognize price trend breaks and reversals in the four most popularly traded currency pairs. The absolute number of the ratio itself represents the amount by which longs exceed shorts or vice versa. For example if the EURUSD ratio is 2.55, long customer orders exceed short orders by a ratio of 2.55 to 1. Conceptually similar to contrarian analyses using the CFTC IMM open position data or COT Report, the SSI provides an alternative approach that is both more timely and accurate in forecasting currency price movement. The SSI is a contrarian indicator that tells you how the market is weighted and where the trend may head. More long positions don't necessary suggest more confidence in the direction of the current trend. In general, when traders start having adverse movements against their position, many tend to increase the size of their position with the purpose to average down their entry price in one last attempt to recover from previous losses. However, the higher the number of short orders in a bull market the more dangerous is to take additional shorts because many of those traders who just entered the markets are also leaving their protective stop losses just above the current price action.



EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.92 as nearly 66% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.73 as 63% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 9.4% lower than yesterday and 22.7% weaker since last week. Short positions are 0.4% higher than yesterday and 4.0% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.2% weaker than yesterday and 2.1% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.



GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -3.17 as nearly 76% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -2.86 as 74% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 9.5% lower than yesterday and 28.3% weaker since last week. Short positions are 0.3% higher than yesterday and 18.7% stronger since last week. Open interest is 2.2% weaker than yesterday and 9.5% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.


USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 3.56 as nearly 78% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 3.79 as 79% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 6.0% lower than yesterday and 38.2% stronger since last week. Short positions are 0.0% lower than yesterday and 33.4% weaker since last week. Open interest is 4.7% weaker than yesterday and 6.5% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.


USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at -1.01 as nearly 50% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.07 as 52% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 12.5% lower than yesterday and 21.6% stronger since last week. Short positions are 5.6% lower than yesterday and 31.2% weaker since last week. Open interest is 9.2% weaker than yesterday and 6.6% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY gains.


USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 5.26 as nearly 84% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 4.07 as 80% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 10.4% higher than yesterday and 13.4% stronger since last week. Short positions are 14.7% lower than yesterday and 28.8% weaker since last week. Open interest is 5.4% stronger than yesterday and 1.0% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.FXCMManagedFunds.com or call +1 646-432-2968