Pro Commentary Lite 1st February 2007

[GFTforex]

An excerpt from FX-Strategy's Pro Commentary


Price: 1.1761
Resistance:1.17731.17861.18101.1845Support:1.17451.17221.16971.1680

Bias:While 1.1783-86 caps we look for a final move down to 1.1720-25 before a reversal higher
Daily Bullish:Losses seen to just below the 1.1754 minimum target and we feel that there should be a small recovery to 1.1783-86 but this should cap. Thus only above 1.1790 would imply an earlier move higher that should quickly overcome the 1.1807-12 area to allow a further attempt at the 1.1845-50 highs. MT Bullish:We consider this second move lower to the 1.1720-25 support should provide a base for a stronger move higher that should break above the 1.1850 high to target 1.1918-28 which should cap. (February 1st)Daily Bearish:Losses have been seen as expected and to just a few points below 1.1754. We feel the first move should be a choppy correction to the 1.1783-86 area but we look for this to cap and for a reversal lower below 1.1742-46 to see a test of 1.1720-25 but expect this to provide a floor for a reversal higher. Thus a stronger bearish stance will require clean break below 1.1715-20 and if seen will begin to pressure the 1.1697 level and below there to 1.1644.MT Bearish:We see the current retest of the 1.1720-25 area as a base for a rally. Thus a stronger decline will require break at 1.1715-20 and if seen would accelerate losses to 1.1644 and probably below. (February 1st)

ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS




31st January



We are beginning to feel more strongly about the flat Wave b which will mean a decline back to 1.1723-29 before Wave c can begin higher. We retain 1.1918-28 as probable targets for the upside.



1st February


Losses seen as expected and we feel we have seen the bottom of minor Wave iii at 1.1746. While Wave iv remains below the 50% pullback at 1.1783-86 we look for Wave v to move lower to the 1.1720-25 to complete Wave c of Wave b. This should allow Wave c of Wave v to begin and target the 161.8% projection in Wave (c) at 1.1918 and the 76.4% projection in Wave v at 1.1928.
Ian Copsey
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