GFT Daily Forex Market Commentary

[GFTforex]

Forex Market Commentary for February 2, 2007 by Cornelius Luca

GFT Daily Forex Market Commentary

The most important economic report - the US non-farm` payrolls report – is due on Friday, and the day before was choppy, frustrating but bottom-line irrelevant. The US currency recovered early losses against all of the majors, except for the pound. The carry trades remain under relative pressure, but the next direction for a few hours will come from the jobless data, which can nor really be forecast.

Euro/dollar

Euro/dollar reversed early gains that took it to a four-week high to close with minor losses on Thursday. The technicals say the pair is overbought here, but take your cues from the jobless report.
There is still strong resistance from a double Fibonacci level at 1.3030. Above the neckline at 1.3060, the pair has resistance at 1.3085, which held on Thursday. The next level is 1.3135.

Initial support is at 1.2995. The next levels are at 1.2960 and 1.2925. Below 1.2868, euro/dollar has strong support at 1.2820.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen spiked down on Thursday, as expected, but closed virtually unchanged. The upside is now favored, but more information is needed here.
Below 120.55, the key support level remains at 120.15. Dollar/yen retains good support at 119.65 from a 50-pip pivot, which targets 120.15 and 119.15.
Immediate resistance is still seen at 121.05 from a 50-pip pivot that targets 120.55 and 121.55. Above 121.90, strong resistance remains at 122.50 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 122.00 and 123.00.
Oscillators are falling.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Sterling/dollar

For the second day, sterling/dollar was not for faint-hearted on Thursday, when it rallied sharply, only to close marginally higher. Again, the pair needs more information before a new direction ensues.
Initial resistance remains at 1.9694. Above 1.9736, which held on Thursday, resistance comes at 1.9775 and then at 1.9810.
Immediate support is still seen at 1.9585 and 1.9547 follows that. Below the area between 1.9510 and 1.9500, strong support follows from a rising trendline at 1.9460. Further support lies at 1.9400.
Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss franc spiked lower on Thursday and briefly broke below a long-term the Fibonacci retracement level at 1.2425. It then closed virtually unchanged, suggesting more gains today, but the jobless data will give direction on the day.

Significant support remains at 1.2410 from a rising trendline. Below 1.2375 there is support at 1.2325.
Above 1.2465, dollar/Swiss franc still has resistance at 1.2495. Next levels are 1.2520 and 1.2570.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish