Daily Market Outlook by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

USD

The dollar recovered against its peers on strong medium-tier data and indications that former FBI director Comey was not pressured to stop his investigation into alleged information leaks to Russia. Initial jobless claims landed at 232K versus the 240K consensus while the Philly Fed index posted a surprise gain from 22.0 to 38.8.

EUR

The euro was either stuck in consolidation or reacting to currency-specific events since their were no major reports out of the region yesterday. The ECB meeting minutes contained a few cautious remarks but the recent upside surprises in data points kept the shared currency afloat. German PPI and euro zone current account balance are due today.

GBP

The pound had a volatile run as it enjoyed a strong boost from impressive UK retail sales data then returned its gains and more later in the day. Consumer spending rebounded by 2.3% in April versus the projected 1.2% gain while the previous reading was upgraded from an initially reported 1.8% drop to a smaller 1.4% decline. Only the CBI industrial order expectations index is due today.

CHF

The franc paused from its recent climb as risk appetite appeared to return to the markets. There were no major reports out of Switzerland yesterday and none are due today so the Swiss currency could stay sensitive to risk flows.

JPY

The yen gave back some ground to the dollar when US equities and bond yields recovered. There were no major reports out of Japan recently so the lower-yielding currency is also reacting to risk sentiment and could continue to do so for the rest of the trading week.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls tossed and turned on account of changes in market sentiment. Australian employment change rose by 37.4K versus the 4.5K consensus while the jobless rate improved from 5.9% to 5.7%. Canadian foreign securities purchases came in below expectations while credit card spending and visitor arrivals in New Zealand increased at a faster pace. Canadian CPI and retail sales figures are due next.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

USD

Dollar weakness stayed in play for Friday as traders continued to worry about the repercussions of the investigation on Trump’s intelligence information leak to Russia. There were no reports released from the US then so the focus was on political headlines, and it could be the same situation today. A couple of FOMC members are set to give testimonies and any shift to a less hawkish bias could influence Fed rate hike expectations for next month.

EUR

The euro *managed to hold on to most of its gains at the end of last week as medium-tier data beat expectations. German PPI rose 0.4% versus the projected 0.2% uptick while the current account surplus turned out higher than expected. There are no major reports due today but the Eurogroup meetings will take place and discussions will likely focus on Brexit.

GBP

The pound ended the previous week strong but was off to a weak start today as the UK government said over the weekend that it is not willing to pay any bill that the EU charges relating to Brexit. UK Rightmove HPI advanced from 1.1% to 1.2% while the CBI industrial order expectations index advanced from 4 to 9 instead of staying unchanged. UK Prime Minister May has a speech today.

CHF

The franc had a mixed performance as the currency reacted mostly to currency specific events. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy on Friday and none are due today so sentiment flows could still be the main driver of franc pairs.

JPY

The yen gave back a few of its gains towards the end of the week, likely on profit-taking activity. Earlier today, the trade balance came in weaker than expected at 0.10 trillion JPY versus the consensus at 0.25 trillion JPY. To top it off, the earlier reading was downgraded to show a smaller surplus of 0.11 trillion JPY.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

Economic data from Canada came in mostly weaker than expected, with headline CPI at 0.4% versus the 0.5% consensus and the core retail sales down 0.2% instead of posting the projected 0.2% uptick. Headline retail sales rose 0.7% versus the projected 0.4% gain, though. Canadian banks are closed for the holiday today so volatility could pick up closer to the BOC statement and OPEC meeting.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

USD

The US dollar moved slightly lower against most of its peers, particularly the Kiwi. There have been no major reports out of the US while the FOMC speeches gave little assurance that a June hike is on the table. US flash manufacturing and services PMIs are lined up today, along with the new home sales report and Richmond manufacturing index. FOMC members Kashkari and Harker are scheduled for more speeches.*

EUR

The euro managed to hold on to most of its gains so far this week even with resurfacing Greek debt headlines. Flash manufacturing and services PMI readings are due from Germany and France today, with more improvements expected. Strong readings could allow the shared currency to rake in more gains while disappointing results could push it back down.

GBP

The pound has been in a weak spot owing to concerns about Brexit negotiations and the snap elections. BOE Inflation Report hearings and UK public sector net borrowing data are lined up today so the focus could move back to economic data, although Brexit-related headlines could still influence price action.

CHF

The franc paused from its risk-off rallies after SNB head Jordan jawboned the currency last week. There have been no reports out of Switzerland yesterday and none are due today so currency-specific events or market sentiment could keep driving franc pairs around.

JPY

The yen is drawing some support from a pickup in risk aversion and dollar weakness. Reports of an explosion in the Manchester Arena in the UK have spurred geopolitical uncertainties once more during the Asian session. Japan’s flash manufacturing PMI is lined up next and a pickup from 52.7 to 52.9 is expected.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Kiwi was the leading performer of the bunch as data from New Zealand have been mostly upbeat in the past weeks. The Loonie also got a bit of a boost from stronger expectations of a 9-month extension of the OPEC deal, with Kuwait and Iraq showing signs that they are likely to cooperate. New Zealand trade balance is due next and a narrower surplus is eyed.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

USD

The US dollar regained some ground in recent trading as market watchers are shifting their focus back to economic data and June rate hike expectations. FOMC member Kashkari indicated that he’s still on the fence, citing that jobs growth has been impressive but that inflation is heading the wrong way. Medium-tier US reports were mixed, with flash manufacturing PMI posting a surprise drop and the services PMI showing a stronger improvement. The Richmond manufacturing index and new home sales figures also disappointed. FOMC minutes are due today and any confirmation that a June rate hike is on the table could stoke the dollar’s gains.

EUR

The euro managed to hold on to most of its recent gains as PMI reports came in mostly stronger than expected, except for the French flash manufacturing PMI. The German Ifo business climate index advanced from 113.0 to 114.6. German GfK consumer climate data is due today, ahead of a speech by ECB head Draghi. Cautious remarks from the central bank head could prevent the shared currency from extending its rallies.

GBP

The pound was one of the weaker performers of the bunch as traders are still reeling from the Manchester Arena attack. This adds to the uncertainty leading up to the snap elections and Brexit negotiations, especially since ISIS has claimed responsibility for the bombing. Public sector net borrowing and CBI realized sales data also disappointed. There are no reports due from the UK today.

CHF

The franc was able to hold on to some of its gains as risk appetite remained weak in the European region. Swiss trade balance was weaker than expected at a surplus of 1.97 billion CHF versus the projected 2.87 billion CHF figure. There are no reports due from Switzerland today so market sentiment could be responsible for the direction of franc pairs.

JPY

The yen slid slightly lower as traders renewed demand for the dollar ahead of the release of the May FOMC meeting minutes. Japanese data also turned out weaker than expected as the flash manufacturing PMI is down from 52.7 to 52.0 while the all industries activity index tumbled by 0.6% versus the projected 0.4% drop. There are no reports due from Japan today so risk sentiment could stay in play.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were able to hold their ground, with the Kiwi extending its flight. Canadian wholesale sales turned out weaker than expected with a 0.9% gain versus the projected 1.1% increase while New Zealand’s trade balance churned out a larger than expected 578 million NZD surplus. Australia’s quarterly construction work done fell 0.7% versus the projected 0.5% fall. The BOC statement and US crude oil inventories report are lined up next.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

USD

The US dollar gave up ground after the May FOMC meeting minutes didn’t seem as hawkish as expected. Although majority of members confirmed that a rate hike is appropriate soon, they also cited that it would be prudent to wait for more data to see if the slowdown in Q1 was really transitory. Apart from that, the discussions focused on balance sheet rebalancing, which might lessen the need for additional tightening moves down the line. US existing home sales came in below expectations at 5.57 million. Initial jobless claims, goods trade balance, and preliminary wholesale inventories are due today.

EUR

The euro recovered to the dollar but was stuck in consolidation against the commodity currencies. Data came in stronger than expected once more as the German GfK consumer climate index rose from 10.2 to 10.4 instead of holding steady. French and German banks are closed for the holiday today so liquidity could be lower than usual during the London session.

GBP

The pound was still in a weak spot against most of its peers as the terror threat in the UK weighed heavily on investor sentiment. There were no reports out of the UK then while today has the second estimate GDP reading, preliminary business investment data, and the BBA mortgage approvals. No revisions are expected for the growth figure but an upgrade could yield some gains for the British currency.

CHF

The franc had a mixed performance as it mostly reacted to currency-specific events. There were no reports out of Switzerland yesterday and none are due today as Swiss banks are closed for the holiday, leaving market sentiment as the likely driver of price action for franc pairs.

JPY

The yen is also in a weak spot as risk appetite appears to have improved. There were no reports out of Japan yesterday and none are due today so the same market factors could stay in play. National and Tokyo core CPI readings are due in the next Asian session.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Loonie was one of the top performers thanks to a more optimistic BOC statement. The central bank focused on the improvements in hiring and consumer spending, confirming that their monetary policy stance is still appropriate. Moody’s downgraded China’s outlook but the Aussie seems unnerved as it is currently taking advantage of gold rallies. Crude oil stockpiles fell by 4.4 million barrels, according to the EIA report, and the focus is now on the OPEC meeting.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

USD

The US dollar barely established a clear direction in recent trading sessions as medium-tier reports were mixed. Initial jobless claims landed at 234K from 233K, still lower than the 238K consensus. Preliminary wholesale inventories slid 0.3% instead of showing a 0.2% buildup to indicate stronger demand and likely rising business production later on. However, the goods trade balance revealed a larger deficit of $67.6 billion on higher imports and lower exports, particularly of automotives and consumer goods. The US preliminary GDP reading is due today and a slight upward revision to 0.9% is eyed.

EUR

The euro was able to hold its ground and even take advantage of the dip in commodities. Most European banks were closed for Ascension Day yesterday so liquidity was low. There are no reports due from the euro zone today, which suggests that market sentiment or currency-specific action could push euro pairs around.

GBP

The pound took in some heavy hits after the UK GDP reading was downgrade from 0.3% to 0.2% to suggest that the economy might not be as resilient as many expect. However, preliminary business investment still beat expectations with a 0.6% gain versus the projected 0.3% uptick. There are no reports due from the UK today so traders might focus on Brexit-related headlines.

CHF

The franc regained ground as European currencies and commodities were weaker for the most part of the day. Swiss banks were closed for the holiday yesterday so there were no reports printed then and none are due today, leaving market sentiment in the driver’s seat.

JPY

The yen took advantage of the fall in commodities even as a bit of risk appetite returned in the US session. National and Tokyo core CPI readings are lined up today, with the former expected to rise from 0.2% to 0.4% and the latter likely to show a flat reading after the previous 0.1% dip.*

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls gave up a lot of ground as commodities tumbled after the OPEC decision. The cartel agreed to a 9-month extension of their output deal as expected, without any additional adjustments in production levels or requiring exempted member nations to join in the output cuts. Saudi’s energy minister urged US shale oil producers to moderate their output as well. There are no other reports due from the comdoll economies for the rest of the week.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

[B]USD[/B]

The US dollar gained some support from mostly stronger than expected economic reports. In particular, its Q1 GDP reading was upgraded from 0.7% to 1.2% versus the 0.9% consensus, signaling that the “slowdown” in the period wasn’t all that worrisome. Durable goods orders posted a 0.7% drop versus the projected 1.4% slide but the core version disappointed with a 0.4% drop instead of the estimated 0.4% uptick.

[B]EUR[/B]

There were no economic reports released from the euro zone economies on Friday while today has only M3 money supply and private loans data. ECB head Draghi also has a testimony lined up and a less cautious tone than usual could mean more support for the shared currency.

[B]GBP[/B]

There were also no major reports out of the UK on Friday but traders seem to be wary of the upcoming snap elections and the possibility that May could lose. UK banks are closed for the holiday today so liquidity could be lower and there are no reports due.

[B]CHF[/B]

The franc had a mixed performance as it mostly reacted to currency-specific events. There were no reports printed out of Switzerland on Friday and none are due today so overall market sentiment could push franc pairs around and the lack of any big catalysts could keep consolidation in play.
[B]
JPY[/B]

The yen barely reacted to mixed inflation reports from Japan. The national core CPI ticked 0.3% higher versus the projected 0.4% uptick while the Tokyo core CPI advanced from -0.1% to 0.1% instead of staying flat. There are no reports due from the Japanese economy next so market sentiment could be the main driver of yen pairs’ action.
[B]
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)[/B]

The comdolls regained some ground as traders priced in the longer-term impact of the OPEC agreement to extend their output deal by nine months. Chinese banks are closed for the holiday today so liquidity could be lower than usual and there are no reports due from the comdoll economies

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

USD

The US dollar was barely moving in recent trading sessions as traders were out enjoying Memorial Day. There were no reports out of the US economy then while today has the core PCE price index, as well as personal spending and income data. The CB consumer confidence index is also lined up and a dip from 120.3 to 120.1 is eyed.

EUR

The euro took a hit after ECB head Draghi’s testimony, even as he did have upbeat remarks on the economy. He acknowledged that economic risks have subsided and that the threat of deflation is lower than before. However, Draghi also mentioned that the economy needs an “extraordinary” amount of support, weighing on the shared currency. German import prices, preliminary CPI, French consumer spending, and French preliminary GDP are due today.

GBP

The pound recovered from its recent slide after the ComRes poll reflected a wider 12-point lead for May’s Conservative Party compared to the YouGov poll indicating a mere 5-point gap. This suggests that the UK economy could avoid additional political uncertainty ahead of the Brexit negotiations. There were no reports out of the UK yesterday and none are due today.

CHF

The franc had a mixed performance as it reacted to currency-specific events. There were no reports out of Switzerland yesterday while today has the KOF economic barometer due. An improvement from 106.0 to 106.2 is expected, possibly adding support for the franc.

JPY

The yen also had a mixed performance as it simply reacted to market sentiment. Household spending, retail sales, and the BOJ core CPI reading are due today. Household spending could fall by 0.7% versus the earlier 1.3% slide while retail sales might increase from 2.1% to 2.1%.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls managed to hold on to their recent gains and go for more against the euro. There were no reports out of the comdoll economies yesterday while today has the current account balance and underlying inflation data from Canada. Strong figures could underscore the BOC’s relatively confident stance and allow the Loonie to keep advancing.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

USD

The US dollar scored a few gains when the core PCE price index printed a larger than expected 0.2% gain versus the projected 0.1% uptick. Personal income and spending both posted 0.4% gains as expected while the CB consumer confidence index for May surprised with a tumble from 119.4 to 117.9 instead of improving to 120.1. Chicago PMI, pending home sales, and the Fed Beige Book are lined up next.

EUR

The shared currency moved mostly sideways even as economic data turned out weaker than expected. German import prices ticked 0.1% down instead of posting the projected 0.2% uptick while preliminary CPI fell by 0.2% versus the projected 0.1% dip. French consumer spending increased by 0.5%, short of the projected 0.8% gain, while the Spanish flash CPI also fell short. German retail sales and unemployment change, as well as French preliminary CPI, are lined up today.

GBP

The pound suffered a sharp selloff in the latter trading sessions when a YouGov poll reflected a narrowing lead for the Conservative Party, also indicating that it would fall short of securing the majority by 16 seats. There were no reports out of the UK economy yesterday while today has medium-tier reports such as net lending to individuals and mortgage approvals data lined up.

CHF

The franc was also in a weak spot as sentiment in Europe appears to have turned sour. Also, the Swiss KOF economic barometer fell from 106.3 to 101.6 versus the projected 106.2 reading. The Swiss UBS consumption indicator is due next and another weaker than expected read could mean more franc weakness.

JPY

The yen had a mixed performance as it functioned more of a counter currency instead of setting its own direction. The BOJ core CPI posted a 0.2% uptick, representing a rebound over the earlier 0.1% drop. Preliminary industrial production is due next and a 4.2% rebound is eyed.

Commodity Currencies (AUD,NZD, CAD)

The Loonie turned lower as economic data from Canada came out weaker than expected. The current account deficit widened from 11.8 billion CAD to 14.1 billion CAD while the underlying inflation readings came in below consensus. According to the RBNZ, financial risks are subsiding and upward pressures to home prices are lower. Chinese official PMI readings are due next and another round of declines could mean more weakness for the comdolls.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jun 01, 2017)

USD

The dollar was barely able to establish a clear direction in recent trading as economic data came in mixed. The Chicago PMI surprised with a jump from 58.3 to 59.4, outpacing the consensus at 57.0 to reflect a much stronger pace of industry expansion. The Fed Beige Book showed that most districts saw moderate growth but the pending home sales report printed a 1.3% slump instead of the projected 0.7% uptick.

EUR

The euro managed to score some wins versus the comdolls and the pound even as flash CPI readings from the region turned out weaker than expected. The headline reading came in at 1.4% versus the 1.5% forecast and the earlier 1.9% increase while the core reading landed at 0.9% versus 1.0% from the previous 1.2% gain. The region’s jobless rate improved from 9.4% to 9.3% though. Final manufacturing PMI readings from its top economies are due next.

GBP

The pound took another hit when a poll from The Sun indicated a narrower lead for Theresa May’s Conservative Party. It showed a 44% stronghold for Conservatives and 38% for Labour. UK net lending to individuals was also weaker than expected at 4.3 billion versus the 4.5 billion consensus. UK manufacturing PMI is due next and a dip from 57.3 to 56.5 is expected.

CHF

The franc barely budged when SNB head Jordan started jawboning again. He mentioned that an overvalued franc puts pressure on the Swiss economy but franc traders don’t seem to be bothered until they see actual central bank action. The Credit Suisse Economic Expectations index is up from 22.2 to 30.8 and the Swiss manufacturing PMI is due next.

JPY

The yen was able to hold on to its recent gains as risk aversion stayed in play. Japanese capital spending data is due next and a 3.9% figure is eyed, slightly higher than the earlier 3.8% read. The final manufacturing PMI is also due but no changes to the initial 52.0 estimate is expected.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were slightly weaker even after Canada printed a higher than expected monthly GDP growth of 0.5% versus 0.3% in March. Oil prices remain under pressure ahead of inventory data from API and EIA. Australia has its private capital expenditure data and retail sales figures due next, along with China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI. New Zealand is due to print its quarterly overseas trade index as well.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jun 02, 2017)

USD

The dollar got a boost from upbeat leading jobs indicators, namely the ADP employment change and ISM manufacturing PMI. The former climbed from 174K to 253K, outpacing the consensus at 181K, while the latter ticked up from 54.9 to 54.9 instead of dipping to the consensus at 54.7. Underlying component showed a rise in hiring activity and a decline in prices. The NFP report is due next, and this is expected to show a 181K reading and no change in the jobless rate at 4.4%.

EUR

The euro was able to hold on to most of its gains even with mixed data from the region. French and Italian manufacturing PMI came in weaker than expected while the Spanish manufacturing PMI beat expectations. The region’s PPI and the Spanish unemployment change report are lined up today.

GBP

The pound struggled to stay afloat as more polls indicated a narrowing lead for PM May’s Conservative Party, keeping political uncertainty in play. The UK manufacturing PMI is down from 57.3 to 56.7 versus the projected drop to 56.5. The construction PMI is up for release next and a drop from 53.1 to 52.7 is expected.

CHF

The franc had a mixed performance as it reacted mostly to currency-specific events. The Swiss manufacturing PMI is down from 56.2 to 55.1 to reflect a slower pace of industry growth compared to the projected 56.1 figure. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today.

JPY

The yen also had a mixed performance as it was sensitive to market sentiment and currency-specific events. Data from Japan was stronger than expected, with capital spending up 4.5% versus 3.9% in Q1 and the final manufacturing PMI upgraded from 52.0 to 53.1. The Japanese consumer confidence index is due next and a rise from 43.2 to 43.6 is expected.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls gave up ground to the dollar and euro but managed to hold steady against the pound. Crude oil steadied as the EIA report showed a draw of 6.4 million barrels in stockpiles versus the projected decline of 2.7 million barrels. The Canadian trade balance is due next and flat reading is eyed.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jun 05, 2017)

USD

The dollar sold off heavily on Friday when the NFP reading fell short of estimates, casting doubts on a June hike. The economy added 138K jobs in May versus the projected 181K increase and the earlier reading, which was downgraded to 174K. The unemployment rate improved from 4.4% to 4.3% while the average hourly earnings figure printed a 0.2% uptick as expected. US ISM non-manufacturing PMI is due today and a drop from 57.5 to 57.1 is eyed.

EUR

The euro was still mostly weaker for the day after the region’s PPI reading showed a flat reading versus the 0.2% uptick to indicate weaker price pressures down the line. Most European banks are closed in observation of Whit Monday today but final services PMI readings are still lined up.

GBP

The pound is off to a shaky start owing to the fresh round of attacks in London and the upcoming snap elections. Polls could have a major impact on the currency’s direction for the week and additional volatility is expected. UK services PMI is due today and a fall from 55.8 to 55.1 is expected.

CHF

The franc gave up some of its recent wins as the SNB continued to jawbone the currency. There were no reports released from Switzerland on Friday and none are due today since Swiss banks are closed for the holidays.

JPY

The yen took advantage of dollar weakness on Friday as bond yields tumbled upon seeing the NFP report. Japan’s consumer confidence index improved from 43.2 to 43.6 as expected and there are no reports due from Japan today so market sentiment could push yen pairs around.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls regained ground versus the dollar but were still weak against the yen. Data from Canada, namely trade balance and labor productivity data, turned out weaker than expected. New Zealand banks are closed for the holiday while Australia just reported a drop in its AIG services index from 53.0 to 51.5.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jun 06, 2017)

USD

The US dollar managed to stay afloat despite mostly downbeat medium-tier data. The ISM non-manufacturing PMI slid from 57.5 to 56.5, lower than the projected drop to 57.1. The final services PMI by Markit was downgraded from 54.0 to 53.6 to reflect a weaker pace of expansion as well. Only the JOLTS job openings report is due from the US today.

EUR

The euro was in a weak spot against its peers as final services PMI weren’t so upbeat. Most euro zone banks were also closed in observance of Whit Monday. Euro zone retail PMI and Sentix investor confidence data are due today and another round of downbeat results could mean more euro weakness.

GBP

The pound tossed and turned as traders kept close tabs on polls leading up to the elections on June 8. The latest batch showed a bit of a higher lead for the Conservatives, which could mean more political stability and a stronger negotiating front during the Brexit talks. UK services PMI was weaker than expected as it fell from 55.8 to 53.8 versus the 55.1 consensus.

CHF

The franc was still in a weak spot as traders hesitated to put funds in Europe and for fear of SNB intervention. Swiss banks were also closed on Whit Monday so there were no reports out of Switzerland then. There are also no reports due today so franc price action could hinge on market sentiment.

JPY

The yen was able to hold on to most of its gains even as US bond yields recovered. There were no reports released from Japan at the start of the week while today has the average cash earnings figure. A 0.3% uptick is eyed, which would be an improvement over the earlier flat reading.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

Crude oil was under some selling pressure as the rift in the Middle East threatens to make the OPEC deal more challenging to implement. Data from Australia has been mixed, with the AIG services index falling and the MI inflation gauge printing a weaker reading as well. The RBA statement is coming up next and no rate changes are eyed, but the central bank could continue to express caution about employment and inflation. Canada’s Ivey PMI and New Zealand’s GDT auction are lined up next.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jun 07, 2017)

USD

The US dollar was unable to benefit from stronger than expected JOLTS job openings data as traders are feeling uneasy ahead of Comey’s testimony on Thursday. This could have repercussions on the pace of fiscal reforms or if any are set to be implemented at all. Only the US consumer credit report is lined up today.

EUR

The euro was under a bit of selling pressure against the yen and comdolls but it managed to advance versus the dollar and pound. Euro zone retail PMI fell from 52.7 to 52.0 but the Sentix investor confidence index improved from 27.4 to 28.4, outpacing the consensus at 27.6. German factory orders and Italian retail sales are due today.

GBP

The pound struggled to stay afloat as traders are keeping extra close tabs on opinion polls leading up to the actual elections later this week. The UK BRC retail sales monitor also printed a 0.4% dip after showing a strong 5.6% surge last time. UK Halifax HPI is due next and a 0.2% fall is eyed.

CHF

The franc had a mixed run as it reacted mostly to currency-specific events. There were no reports out of Switzerland yesterday while today has the SNB foreign currency reserves on tap. A significant increase over the earlier 696 billion CHF level could be evidence of intervention, especially since Chairman Jordan has jawboned heavily in the past couple of weeks.

JPY

The yen was the strongest performer as it benefitted from risk-off moves and anti-dollar sentiment. News that China will be buying US bonds drove prices higher and yields lower, which then lifted demand for the yen. Average cash earnings also turned out stronger than expected with a 0.5% gain versus the projected 0.3% uptick. Leading indicators is due today and a fall from 105.5% to 104.4% is expected.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Kiwi was the leader of the gang as it got a healthy boost from a 3.2% gain in ANZ commodity prices and another increase from the GDT auction. Dairy prices are up 0.6%, slower than the earlier gain but still enough to bring prices up by their third month in a row. The RBA kept rates on hold as expected and brushed off the Q1 slowdown. Australian GDP and US crude oil inventories data are due next.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jun 08, 2017)

USD

The dollar regained some ground when the text of Comey’s opening statement was released on the Senate website. It hinted that the former FBI head won’t be divulging evidence of wrongdoing on Trump’s part when it comes to sharing intelligence information on Russian officials. US consumer credit fell sharply to $8.9 billion to indicate a possible slowdown in spending for April.

EUR

The euro tanked when rumors about the ECB cutting its inflation outlook hit the newswires. This follows the downbeat flash CPI readings released late last week. German factory orders also printed a weaker than expected 2.1% slump instead of the projected 0.2% dip. No actual policy changes are expected from the ECB today but traders are likely to hunt for policy clues from Draghi’s testimony and press conference.

GBP

The pound was able to recover slightly on more polls hinting that the Conservatives could maintain their lead in the elections. Halifax HPI also came in stronger than expected with a 0.4% gain versus the projected 0.2% drop. The UK parliamentary elections is coming up next and a majority for the Tories could restore political stability in the country.

CHF

The franc gave up some ground to most of its peers as risk appetite returned to the markets. The SNB foreign currency reserves reading dipped from 697B CHF to 694B CHF to show no evidence of intervention just yet. Swiss jobless rate is due next and no change from the 3.3% reading is eyed.

JPY

The yen was one of the weakest performers for the day as it gave up ground on risk appetite. Japan’s leading indicators came in slightly better than expected at 104.5% versus the projected 104.4% reading, down from the earlier 105.5% figure. The final GDP reading is due next and a small upgrade from 0.5% to 0.6% is expected.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Aussie got a strong boost from a better than expected 0.3% GDP reading versus the projected 0.2% expansion. The Loonie was also lagging behind due to a surprise fall in Canada’s building permits and a buildup in US crude oil stockpiles of 3.3 million barrels. The Australian trade balance is due next and a smaller surplus of 1.91 billion AUD is expected. China is also set to print its trade balance and might report a wider surplus of 336 billion CNY.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jun 09, 2017)

USD

The US dollar steadied throughout the day as traders didn’t see any surprises from the Comey testimony. Economic data was in line with estimates as the initial jobless claims reading came in at 245K, down from the earlier 255K figure. Only the final wholesale inventories report is due from the US today.

EUR

The euro gave up some ground as the ECB downgraded inflation forecasts as expected. However, losses were limited since Draghi gave a few upbeat remarks during the presser. He clarified that normalization has not been discussed but that they’re not looking to cut anytime soon unless things get worse. French industrial production and the Italian quarterly unemployment rate are due next.

GBP

The pound was slightly weaker for the day as traders are feeling the jitters during the UK elections. Early polls are still hinting at a narrow lead for the Conservatives but that they could eventually win the majority. UK manufacturing production data is due next and a 0.8% rebound over the earlier 0.6% drop is eyed. Industrial production is slated to recover by 0.7%.

CHF

The franc had a mixed run as it acted as safe-haven against most of its rivals but caved to dollar and Kiwi strength. Data from Switzerland came in better than expected as the jobless rate improved to 3.2% while CPI ticked 0.2% higher versus the projected flat reading. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today.

JPY

The yen gave up some ground as traders reestablished their long dollar positions on the lack of surprises during Comey’s testimony. Japan’s final GDP reading was downgraded from 0.5% to 0.3% instead of being upgraded to the 0.6% forecast. Tertiary industry activity data is due next and a 0.5% rebound is expected.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Aussie was able to hold on to its gains even with downbeat trade data from Australia and China. Australia’s surplus narrowed from 3.17B AUD to 0.56B AUD versus the 1.91B forecast as exports slipped 8%. China’s trade surplus widened from 262B CNY to 282B CNY versus the projected rise to 336B CNY. Australian home loans and Chinese inflation numbers are lined up next. Canada is also set to release its jobs report and might show a gain of 11.5K in hiring.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (June 12, 2017)

USD

The US dollar regained some ground against its peers as risk aversion kicked in after the UK elections. There were no major reports out of the US on Friday and only the Fed budget balance is due next. Dollar demand also got an extra boost after Comey’s testimony did not have any damning evidence for Trump.

EUR

The euro trailed the pound in losing ground to most of its counterparts after the UK snap elections led to a hung parliament. Medium-tier data from the region also missed expectations while today only has the Italian industrial production data on tap. Analysts are expecting to see a 0.2% uptick.

GBP

The pound sold off sharply after the UK snap elections resulted to a hung parliament. Prime Minister May is now making moves to hold on to office and is also seeking a coalition with other political parties. There are no reports due from the pound today but the post-election selloff could resume or traders could price in expectations for the top-tier data due this week.

CHF

The franc took in some gains after the pound tanked during the UK elections. There were no reports out of Switzerland on Friday and none are due today so market sentiment could stay in play.

JPY

The yen also took advantage of the rally in safe-havens during the aftermath of the UK elections. Data from Japan was stronger than expected as tertiary industry activity rose by 1.2% versus the projected 0.5% uptick. Core machinery orders, PPI, and preliminary machine tool orders data are due next.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls held on to their gains even though a bit of risk aversion came into play on Friday. Canada added 54.5K jobs in May versus the projected 11.5K increase. Australian banks are closed for the holiday today and there are no major reports due.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (June 13, 2017)

USD

The dollar took in some losses against its rivals as the tech sector tumble on Wall Street dragged sentiment down. There were no major reports out of the US on Monday while today has the PPI and NFIB Small Business index. Headline PPI could stay flat while core PPI could have a 0.2% uptick.

EUR

The euro managed to hold its ground as the first round of French parliamentary elections yielded a lot of support for Macron’s political party. However, Italian industrial production was weaker than expected with a 0.4% drop instead of the projected 0.2% uptick. German ZEW economic sentiment index is due today and a rise from 20.6 to 21.6 is eyed.

GBP

The pound carried on with its slide from after the elections last week as there still has been no political clarity in the UK. PM May apologized to lawmakers who lost their seats in the elections and said that it is up to the party whether or not she can keep her job. UK CPI is due next and no change to the 2.7% headline figure is eyed.

CHF

The franc consolidated against most of its peers as European market sentiment was weak but there was some degree of risk aversion. There were no reports out of Switzerland yesterday and none are due today so risk flows could determine franc direction, along with pricing in of SNB expectations.

JPY

The yen was one of the big winners for the day as dollar weakness and risk-off moves favored the safe-haven currency. Data from Japan was mixed as core machinery orders slid 3.1% while PPI was close to consensus at a 2.1% increase. The BSI manufacturing index is due next.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Loonie got a big boost from hawkish remarks by BOC member Wilkins who said that the central bank might need to evaluate whether all of stimulus is still needed or not. Australia’s NAB business confidence index is due next and New Zealand will print its current account balance in the next Asian session.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jun 14, 2017)

USD

The dollar was able to hold its ground as traders are pricing in a relatively upbeat FOMC statement. A rate hike of 0.25% is widely expected but the Fed might hint that they could slow down their pace of tightening later this year. Also, the focus could be on balance sheet adjustments, which would lessen the need to hike interest rates soon. US CPI and retail sales are also due.

EUR

The euro had a mixed run as returned most of its intraday gains to commodity currencies. Data from the region was downbeat, with German WPI down 0.7% instead of gaining 0.2% and the ZEW economic sentiment index dropping from 20.6 to 18.6 instead of improving to the 21.6 consensus. German final CPI and euro zone industrial production are due next.

GBP

The pound had a boost from stronger than expected UK CPI, spurring expectations of an upbeat BOE statement. Headline inflation rose from 2.7% to 2.9% while core CPI advanced from 2.4% to 2.6% instead of dipping to 2.3%. There have also been talks of a coalition formed between the Tories and DUP. Jobs data is due next and claimants could come in at 12.5K while the average earnings index could hold steady at 2.4%.

CHF

The franc was able to score some wins as risk sentiment improved in Europe. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy and none are due today so market sentiment could be the main driver of price action.

JPY

The yen gave up some ground as risk appetite improved and data from Japan turned out weaker than expected. The BSI manufacturing index fell from +1.1 to -2.9 instead of improving to the projected +1.5 figure. The revised industrial production report is due next and an upgrade from 4.0% to 4.1% is expected.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Aussie was under some selling pressure after iron ore prices tumbled again but it recovered as risk sentiment improved later in the day. The Loonie continued to advance against its peers on hawkish remarks from BOC officials and the lack of negative reports in the oil market. Chinese industrial production, retail sales, and fixed asset investment are due next. New Zealand will release its GDP in the next Asian session.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jun 15, 2017)

USD

The US dollar took a huge hit after economic reports turned out weaker than expected. Headline retail sales fell 0.3% instead of posting the projected 0.1% uptick while the core reading also showed a 0.3% drop. Headline CPI is down 0.1% versus expectations of a 0.2% gain. The FOMC is still coming up next and additional volatility is eyed.

EUR

The euro weakened against most of its counterparts, except for the US dollar, as medium-tier data from Germany fell short of estimates. The final CPI reading was unchanged at -0.2% instead of being upgraded to the 0.5% consensus while the ZEW economic index also turned out below expectations. Employment change ticked up by a slightly better than expected 0.4% while industrial production advanced 0.5% as expected.

GBP

The pound resumed its drop to its peers on mixed jobs data. The claimant count change came in at 7.3K, lower than the projected 12.5K increase in hiring, but the previous reading was revised to show a larger 22K rise in joblessness. The average earnings index fell to 2.1% instead of landing at 2.4% while the earlier figure was downgraded to 2.4%. The BOE decision is due next and traders are keen to see whether the central bank will attempt to reassure the public or not.

CHF

The franc had a mixed run leading up to the SNB decision this week as market sentiment and currency-specific events seemed to be the bigger drivers of price action. No actual rate changes are expected but strong jawboning could mean franc weakness as traders grow wary of intervention.

JPY

The yen took back ground against the dollar even though the industrial production figure was unchanged at 4.0% instead of being upgraded to the 4.1% consensus. There are no reports due from Japan today so traders could hold out for the BOJ decision on Friday.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Loonie seemed unfazed by weaker oil prices as traders continued to buy up the Canadian currency on tightening expectations. Australia reported a weaker Westpac consumer sentiment index at -1.8% versus the earlier -1.1% reading while data from China came in closely in line with estimates. Industrial production stood at 6.5% instead of dipping to 6.4% while fixed asset investment slowed from 8.9% to 8.6%. New Zealand’s GDP data is due next and a 0.7% expansion is eyed.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way