Daily Market Analysis by IC Markets
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  1. #1
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    Thumbs up Daily Market Analysis by IC Markets- Comprehensive Price Action Analysis.

    Welcome to IC Markets' daily Market Analysis thread. Here we will be sharing detailed Technical Analysis written by our Experts covering the Four Majors EUR/USD, AUD/USD, GBP/USD & USD/JPy .

    Please feel free to leave any feedbacks or ask any questions related to the analysis.
    Last edited by icmarkets; 05-08-2014 at 12:12 AM.

  2. #2
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    Default Wednesday 7th May: Buyers in control on the Euro, where next?

    The charts levels and zones will be color coded for the benefit of readers as follows:
    Weekly TF = Black.*Daily TF = *Gold.*4hr TF =*Brown*

    EUR/USD:

    Daily TF.

    Previous 52-week/Monthly and Weekly highs (1.38934/1.39060/1.38892) stood no chance today with the bulls in full force.

    A supply area at 1.39669 – 1.39317 has been identified, where a bearish reaction is currently being seen, but not with conviction. It is doubtful the selling pressure will be able to overcome the buyers, even if a retrace does persist.
    The round number 1.40000 is so close; traders can smell the liquidity lurking around it. Expect serious sellers to be waiting here as a lot of traders around the world will be watching this figure. With so much attention around this small area, and the expectation of a reversal here, what will Pro money be thinking? A guess would be to try and gain as much liquidity for a big move in their favor. This big figure will not only have sellers waiting, but also buyers attempting to buy the breakout. A supply area above marked with a check at 1.42443 – 1.41146 is a perfect area to facilitate a fakeout of this big number. Swing traders trying to fade the area will have their stops 20 to 30 pips above the figure on average, these stops will be buy orders if/once they are triggered. Pro money will then sell into the buy stops in small batches of orders not allowing price to move too far from their entries. The supply zone above will just add fuel to the selling pressure for the fakeout to be completed.

    So do keep a watchful eye on the big figure and the Daily supply area above it which is within weekly supply at 1.42445 – 1.38589 as mentioned on the weekly outlook analysis.

    Demand on this timeframe is still seen at the S/R flip area at 1.37974, this was the last place serious buyers came into the market.

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    Here is just a reminder of how beautiful the supply marked with a check looks in history, who would not want to trade this area??

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    4hr TF.

    After rallying for 2 consecutive 4hr candles up to Daily supply (levels above), price action shows buyers were totally in control for most of the day yesterday.

    On this timeframe, two demand areas are worth noting down , the first, a decision point for price rally up to supply which is the highest of the two marked with an x,at 1.38709 – 1.38798 , and below, the demand area and origin of the whole rally at 1.38709 – 1.38798.

    Either 2 of these demand areas may have active buyers waiting if price retraces far enough, so as always, trade with caution.

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    • Areas to watch for buy orders: 1.38709 – 1.38798, 1.38709 – 1.38798, 1.37974
    • Areas to watch for sell orders: 1.42443 – 1.41146, 1.40000, 1.42443 – 1.41146
    • Most likely scenario: Price will likely not see much reaction at the current Daily supply as most of the supply has been consumed previously. A touch of the 1.40000 is expected very soon.
    Last edited by icmarkets; 05-09-2014 at 01:07 AM.

  3. #3
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    Default Wednesday 7th May: GBP/USD

    GBP/USD:

    4hr TF.

    As reported in the last analysis, if price was to shoot north, the next supply is at 1.70372 – 1.69811, which is within Daily supply (1.70372 – 1.68747). Price is currently reacting near the big figure 1.70000 within the 4hr supply area.

    A break of this supply would not only be breaking 4hr area, but the daily too. Price would then be entering major supply on the Weekly timeframe at 1.76290 – 1.70420 as shown on Monday’s weekly outlook.

    Similar to the Euro, there are 2 obvious demand areas below for price to react to, if a drop happens. The lowest of the two is not a fresh level at 1.68069 – 1.68280, the next demand higher up is a decision point on this timeframe to take price deeper into supply at 1.68522 – 1.68729.

    If a decline does take place, there is very little to stop price getting to the near-term demand zones highlighted above.

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    A quick reminder of how the supply areas look on the higher timeframe.

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    • Areas to watch for buy orders: 1.68069 – 1.68280, 1.68522 – 1.68729
    • Areas to watch for sell orders: 1.70000, 1.70372 – 1.69811
    • Most likely scenario: Price will likely see a retracement here, so do set alerts near the mentioned near-term demand areas.
    Last edited by icmarkets; 05-07-2014 at 05:04 AM.

  4. #4
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    Default Wednesday 7th May: AUD/USD

    AUD/USD:

    4hr TF.

    The minor consolidation between the S/R flip level at 0.93124 and demand (0.92029 – 0.92299) has been broken. The upper limit (S/r flip level) was challenged as reported, the spike up was to clear out the remaining sellers for the rally to supply at 0.93784 – 0.93751.

    Price is currently testing this very supply area at the time of writing which was reported may happen. Nonetheless, a deeper move into supply is expected due to the S/R weekly flip level at 0.93718 and fresh 4hr supply at 0.94232 – 0.09040 with the round number just below (0.94000). This is coupled with being surrounded by daily supply at 0.94466 – 0.93777.

    If price resolves south reacting from supply, we have support which was previous resistance at 0.93124 where a reaction may be seen, if only for a bounce, then down to the decision point of the rally at 0.92580 – 0.92746 for a bigger reaction.

    This pair has not changed much medium term, and still remains capped either side between Daily supply at 0.94466 – 0.93777 and demand at 0.92037 – 0.92825 which can be clearly seen on the 4hr timeframe below.

    Click image for larger version. 

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    • Areas to watch for buy orders: 0.93124, 0.92580 – 0.92746
    • Areas to watch for sell orders: 0.93718, 0.94232 – 0.09040, 0.94000
    • Most likely scenario: Price will likely push deeper into supply to find more sellers before making any kind of retracement, if any.
    Last edited by icmarkets; 05-07-2014 at 05:05 AM.

  5. #5
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    Default Wednesday 7th May: USD/JPY

    USD/JPY:

    Daily TF.
    A reminder of the higher timeframe price action:
    No change has been seen to either supply at 104.831 – 104-121 or demand at 101.236 – 101.769 which has capped price either side.

    At the time of writing the bears have been selling hard into daily demand (levels above), do not forget though, there’s also a powerful weekly S/R flip level at 101.328 currently with trendline confluence, so a break of this demand area will not be easy.

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    4hr TF.

    The minor consolidation was broken south, a reaction off of a small S/R flip level at 102.128 was enough for the bears to break the 4hr range (Supply = 103.067 – 102.734 Demand = 101.847 – 102.026).

    As reported a break south may happen. Why did price only need a small S/R flip (level above) to break quite an important area? The reason may have been because pro money did the hard work beforehand marked with a check on the chart. This demand area was penetrated deep, consuming most of the willing buyers there, so all the big guys had to do was start selling into all these willing buyers in small chunks, once all those buyers dried up and price reached a minor level of supply – BOOM! No more buyers, pro money loaded up = big move south.

    Price is reacting to an area of demand at 101.536 deep within daily demand (levels above) which was reported to watch in yesterday’s analysis. This could see price make a short rally to supply which was prior demand at 102.026 – 101.847 as a short-term target.

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    • Areas to watch for buy orders: 101.536
    • Areas to watch for sell orders: 102.026 – 101.847
    • Most likely scenario: Price will likely push a little deeper south at the current demand level 101.536 to stop out traders who were long, pro money will then use the sell stops to buy into to push price higher to supply at either 102.026 – 101.847 or the small S/R flip level at 101.132.
    Last edited by icmarkets; 05-08-2014 at 01:07 PM.

  6. #6
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    Default Thursday 8th May: EUR/USD

    The charts levels and zones will be color coded for the benefit of readers as follows:

    Weekly TF = Black. Daily TF = Gold. 4hr TF = Brown

    EUR/USD:

    4hr TF :
    Even though a reaction is being seen at daily supply (1.39669 – 1.39317) buyers and sellers have still not decided on a direction, resulting in price action not moving much since the last analysis

    1.40000 is still fresh supply and waiting to be challenged, a break above this level could force prices to test daily supply at 1.42443 – 1.41146.

    Near-term demand is seen at the round number 1.39000 along with the previous monthly high which was prior resistance, now becoming possible support at 1.39060.

    The 2 demand areas mentioned in the last analysis should still be watched carefully as a touch is yet to happen. The first, the highest of the two, marked with an x is at 1.38709 – 1.38798. The lower demand, the origin of the previous rally at 1.38122 – 1.38295 (These levels should have been on the last analysis – apologies!), which also contains the previously weekly low within it at 1.38122. Out of the 2 demand areas the origin normally provides the biggest reaction, so if you do trade the higher of the two demands; make sure your risk is in check!

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    • Areas to watch for buy orders: 1.39000, 1.39060, 1.38709 – 1.38798 Trade here with caution, 1.38122 – 1.38295
    • Areas to watch for sell orders: 1.39669 – 1.39317, 1.40000, 1.42443 – 1.41146
    • Most likely scenario: Price will likely test either of the demand areas below, as it is currently seen consuming sellers at daily supply, but will more than likely head for the origin
    Last edited by icmarkets; 05-08-2014 at 12:51 AM.

  7. #7
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    Default Thursday 8th May: GBP/USD

    GBP/USD:

    4hr TF.

    Very similar to the Euro, a weak bearish reaction at 4hr supply (1.70372 – 1.69811) is currently happening: more so near the big round number 1.70000 on this pair.

    Price is deep within daily supply at 1.70372 – 1.68747, a lot of buyers have been consumed with the 2 prior momentum candles. If a break above this supply is seen, price will be entering huge weekly supply at 1.76290 – 1.70420, this could be important for any traders long the market with the current uptrend, as this could be a place where serious sellers show their strength.

    Demand is much the same as the last analysis of the pair. The higher of the two, marked with an x is at 1.68522 – 1.68729 could see a nice reaction. The demand area directly below at 1.68069 – 1.68280 is not a fresh area, but was used during the NFP announcement, and holds a previous weekly low within at 1.68224, so there may still be unfilled orders left.

    Be aware there is also closer demand than already mentioned, but not deemed as strong. There is previous monthly (1.69009) and weekly (1.69198) high levels along with the round number 1.69000 which made a cluster resistance. These levels got consumed with the recent rally. This cluster of levels may become support if price retraces far enough.

    Nothing much has changed regarding price having room to move lower, there are currently no demand/buyers until the round number cluster support.

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    • Areas to watch for buy orders: 1.68522 – 1.68729, 1.68069 – 1.68280, 1.69009, 1.69198, and 1.69000.
    • Areas to watch for sell orders: 1.70372 – 1.69811, 1.70000.
    • Most likely scenario: Price will likely test lower demand, the round number cluster support area (1.69000) will likely see a bounce, before faking this level to real demand at 1.68522 – 1.68729. Do keep an eye on the big round number 1.70000 for shorts as we have not yet formally touched this level.
    Last edited by icmarkets; 05-08-2014 at 11:27 AM.

  8. #8
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    Default Thursday 8th May: AUD/USD

    AUD/USD :

    4hr TF.

    A deeper move into 4hr supply (0.93784 – 0.93751) has not been seen yet as expected.

    The S/R flip level at 0.93124 is seeing a reaction as expected. This is supported with a prior weekly high resistance, turned support at 0.93167. At the time of writing, price is once again caught within a mini range between recent supply and the S/R flip level below (levels above). A break above may see price testing fresh supply at 0.94232 – 0.09040, conversely a break below may see demand (0.92580 – 0.92746) being tested.

    A point that needs emphasizing here and which could be used in the future relates to the bearish approach price action took before reaching the minor S/R flip level. Look at the bearish candles; notice the ones with long wicks forming almost pin-bar like formations? This is pro money clearing minor lower timeframe supply areas whilst price is still dropping. The reason this is done is to allow a clear path for more bullish price action with little selling pressure to stop it.

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    • Areas to watch for buy orders: 0.93124, 0.93167, 0.92580 – 0.92746.
    • Areas to watch for sell orders: 0.93784 – 0.93751, 0.94232 – 0.09040.
    • Most likely scenario: Price will likely consolidate within the temporary range providing lower timeframe traders the opportunity to scalp the limits, until a decision is made to break.
    Last edited by icmarkets; 05-08-2014 at 12:49 AM.

  9. #9
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    Default Thursday 8th May: USD/JPY

    USD/JPY:

    4hr TF.

    An area of demand at 101.536 that was reported a few days ago to be attentive of has seen a reaction. Nonetheless, if your stop was too tight, you may have been stopped out on this one, with that crafty spike down.

    The near-term target which was prior demand, now acting supply at 102.026 – 101.847 was hit, and is where price is trading at the time of writing.

    Similar to the Aussie, this pair is now within minor consolidation between demand at 101.536 and supply (102.026 – 101.847).

    Remembering we are within a daily timeframe consolidation as well (Supply: 104.831 – 104.121 Demand: 101.236 – 101.769). If price decides to go southbound, the previous monthly lows (101.325) accompanied with the huge S/R weekly flip level (101.328) is the next point of trouble for the bears. If price breaks north, the bulls have to contend with selling pressure from the minor S/R flip level at 102.128

    All things considered, price is still in daily demand with a weekly S/R flip level within (levels above); so long trades are more viable at this point.

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    • Areas to watch for buy orders: 101.536, 101.325, and 101.328.
    • Areas to watch for sell orders: 102.026 – 101.847, and 101.132.
    • Most likely scenario: Price will likely consolidate within the temporary range providing lower timeframe traders the opportunity to scalp the limits, until a decision is made to break.
    Last edited by icmarkets; 05-08-2014 at 01:05 PM.

  10. #10
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    Default Friday 9th May: Euro makes new highs, yet we’re still in weekly timeframe supply.

    The charts levels and zones will be color coded for the benefit of readers as follows:
    Weekly TF = Black.*Daily TF =*Gold.*4hr TF =*Brown

    EUR/USD:

    Daily TF.

    A quick look at what recent price action shows us on this timeframe. Price has consumed more sellers within weekly supply at 1.42445 – 1.38589. This could be because one of two things or even both going on here:

    • Long-term trend traders who were long the market in the current uptrend may think this is a good opportunity to unload some of their positions and begin taking profit.
    • This could be Pro money sellers loading their first shorts into the market.


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    4hr TF.

    Look at that wick completely clearing sellers from daily supply at 1.39669 – 1.39317, this wick made a high of 1.39909! Another 10 pips and price would have been trading at the big figure 1.40000. What does this wick portray? It tells traders this is a strong area of supply where more sellers are likely to be waiting with their unfilled orders. One can imagine the emotional disappointment caused by traders missing their entry by a few pips as price selfishly turns just before the entry level.

    Near-term demand at the round number 1.39000, coupled with the previous monthly high at 1.39060 saw a small reaction, but nothing that would have been worth trading.

    The demand area marked with an x at 1.38709 – 1.38798 has now been completely consumed; remember in the last analysis, it was reported to trade this area with caution as the origin normally provides the best reaction.

    Next demand on the hit list for the sellers is at 1.38122 – 1.38295 which is also the previous weekly low at 1.38122. Be that as it may, we are still in weekly supply (levels above) and higher timeframes normally supersedes the lower, so be aware fellow traders!

    Could this bearish momentum be the start of a long-term trend change, or are we still in for higher prices? As the sellers have been cleared out at daily supply above (levels above) price most certainly can rally higher. Time will tell as there are yet some strong demand areas to be consumed before any type of downtrend commences.

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    • Areas to watch for buy orders: 1.38122 – 1.38295
    • Areas to watch for sell orders: 1.40000
    • Most likely scenario: Price will likely begin retracing here, seeing some short-term profit taking. A test of the demand at 1.38122 – 1.38295 is likely to happen before a visit to the big figure 1.40000.
    Last edited by icmarkets; 05-09-2014 at 12:39 AM.

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