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  1. #771
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    FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 11th April, 2017
    By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

    GBP/USD Bullish Momentum Re-Tests Ahead of Local Data


    Sterling showed a significant recovery on Monday with +63-pips price action. Today, GBP/USD was modest with +4 pips profit and the pair clocked 1.2432 high, then retreated 1.4221, at which the pair is currently trading intraday. GBP/USD still under pressure by recent strong U.S Dollar performance as the U.S Index clocked 101.24 April-2017-fresh-highs, although the index currently trades 100.93, is still a threat for the Sterling and promises for further declines for GBP/USD.

    Mrs. Yellen, head of U.S Fed crossed wires yesterday with the following headlines and the coming hours will decide how the market will digest Yellen's speech as traders awaited more positive hints for coming U.S Fed hikes.

    "I think we have a healthy economy now"

    "Whereas before we had our foot pressed down on the gas pedal trying to give the economy all the oomph we possibly could, now allowing the economy to kind of coast and remain on an even keel -- to give it some gas but not so much that we are pressing down hard on the accelerator -- that's a better stance of monetary policy," she said. "We want to be ahead of the curve and not behind it."

    Today, UK Data pocket is heavily loaded with Consumer Price Index CPI, Producer Price Index PPI, and Retail Price Index with CPI in focus. The UK CPI is expected to be weaker at 2.2% y/y in March versus a 2.3% reading booked last. On monthly basis, the consumer prices in the UK are expected to arrive at 0.3% versus 0.7% on previous sessions. GBP/USD low volatility is justified by markets being poised for economic data arrival today, but there will volatility after releasing data which will be eyed by BOE correlated with Inflation and coming interest rate decision.

    Fundamentals:

    1- GBP - CPI + PPI + RPI today at 8:30 AM GMT.

    2- GBP - BOE Gov Carney Speech tomorrow at 8:00 AM GMT.

    3- GBP - Average Earnings Index 3m/y tomorrow at 8:30 AM GMT.

    Technical:

    Trend: Bearish Sideways

    Resistance levels : R1 1.2444, R2 1.2494, R2 1.2545, R4 1.2618

    Support levels : S1 1.2375, S2 1.2321, S3 1.2267, S4 1.2195

    Remark : UK Data today is crucial for GBP/USD trend coming hours with expectation of high volatility shortly after release. Although cable trend is currently bearish sideways, the data outcome could re-set GBP/USD Trend. U.S Index levels to be taken highly into consideration.

    For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.

    Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

  2. #772
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    FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 11th April, 2017
    By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

    EUR/USD Remains Under Pressure by Stronger U.S Dollar


    EUR/USD extended the bearish trend for the 12th consecutive session and has been confined with 37-pips price action since yesterday. The pair clocked a 1.0620 high today and remains under pressure by recovering US Dollar as the Index peeked to 101.24 high yesterday. Today U.S Index retreated to 100.73 low, showing signs of weakness following Yellen speech yesterday as the market still not digesting the outcome. Yellen and Co. abandoned the support for U.S Dollar, and left the Index to trade based on U.S upcoming economic events, stressing that U.S economy is doing well overall.

    Technical :

    Trend : Bearish Sideways

    Resistance levels: R1 1.0622, R2 1.0653, R3 1.0705

    Support levels: S1 1.0570, S2 1.0537, S3 1.0486

    Remark : The market is bearish and Friday's drop out from sideways congestion around 1.07+/- alerts for fro another aggressive selling wave to reach S2. Any corrective congestion trapped within the lower half of Friday's range will stay aligned for selloffs. A close above R3 level is needed to spark bullish forces and trend reversal.

    For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.

    Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

  3. #773
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    FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 12th April, 2017
    By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

    Crude Oil Rallies Over Geopolitical Tension, Awaiting U.S Inventories


    Fundamentals:

    Crude oil prices added +1.28 profit bp this week +2.44% with 53.58 April-2017-fresh-highs. On March 2017, oil prices fell to the lowest at 47.07 over concerns of market glut driven by intensive U.S shale drilling and overloaded storage. Last week, U.S attack on Al-Shaayrat airfield sparked fears in market with possible consequences that yet might come in coming days and this week, tension aroused further more as U.S battleships approaches North Korean offshore, and the Koreans responded with a sharper ascending tone, threatening to use Nuclear muscle power, in case they are provoked.

    On the other hand, Saudi Arabia told OPEC cartel that they have the good intention of extending OPEC-deal that was constructed in Vienna, late 2016. Add to that, troubles with Libyan oil filed still continues. Last week, there were also concerns about a supply outage at a field in the United Kingdom's North Sea that feeds into an international benchmark price.

    According to OPEC's sources quoted by Reuters, OPEC's 11 states with oil output targets comply 104% with curbs in March. Also, OPEC oil output data from secondary sources may be revised before publication on Wednesday. On Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute said U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 1.3 million barrels last week, following a 1.8 million drop seen in the previous report. The weekly inventory report from the Energy Information Administration due to be released today during the NA session now has the potential to record a drop as well.

    Summary: Given the geopolitical tension in the middle eat and the ugly flirting between U.S and North Korea, crude levels has the potential to break higher. Add to that, Saudi Arabia message of six months extension desire which is a clear message for April 22th 2017 OPEC next-meeting, will support oil bullish forces more. We look forward for U.S Crude Inventories today at 2:30 PM GMT.

    Technical Overview:

    Trend: Bullish/sideways

    Resistance levels: R1 54.11, R2 54.79, R3 55.63

    Support levels: S1 52.52, S2 51.67, R3 50.71

    Remark: The market has turned short term bullish. A close over 53.65 is needed to continue pressing advances. Be guard for a back off from 53.65 into a short term swing high. Corrections should fight to hold along 51.00. A close Below S3 level is an indication for shifting course trend to bearish.

    For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.

    Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

  4. #774
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    FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 12th April, 2017
    By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

    USD/CAD Extends Losses Ahead of BOC's Rate Decision


    USD/CAD extended the bearish momentum for the 5th consecutive session with a 1.3306 low today and stingy -33-pips price action. Loonie sharp tone was supported by collapsing U.S Dollar as the Index clocked 100.50 low today and crude oil bullish levels with 53.74 high today, considering Canada is a major oil producer. Canadian Dollar awaits today BOC interest rate decision and forecasts are highly bet to leave it at current 0.5% which could create a pessimistic wave for the Loonie, but the pair could receive a lift by Gov. Poloz depending on the speech tone.

    Fundamentals:

    1- CAD - BOC Interest Rate Decision today at 2:00 PM GMT.

    2- CAD - BOC's Gov. Poloz Speech at 3:15 PM GMT.

    Technical overview:

    Trend : Bullish Sideways

    Resistance levels: R1 1.3376, R2 1.3432, R3 1.3515

    Support levels : S1 1.3294, S2 1.3231, S3 1.3166

    Remark : Market to consider the pair bullish despite weekly losses due to strong relatively strong USD. A break below S1 will increase selloffs and wash towards S2 level. Dips should fight S1 level. Closing under S2 level is a signal for trend reversal and market to consider the pair bearish. On the other hand, closing above R1 level will spark bullish forces towards R2 level. Expect high volatility with sideways destination shortly after BOC rate decision. Crude levels are vital for the Loonie.

    For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.

    Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

  5. #775
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    FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 13th April, 2017
    By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

    Gold Tweets Higher Over Collapsing U.S Dollar, Eyes on U.S Data


    For the second week, Trump interfered, forbidding gold bullish forces to shift course and shoot lower. Last week, an attack on Syria with Tomahawk missiles, creating uncertainty and political tension in the middle eat. But Trump didn't stop at this level, he amplified the compass and headed east towards North Korea, increasing further tension, and along with it, gold was the ultimate choice as sacred haven for market with 1279.96 high.

    Yesterday, Trump broke his fasting silence with a hint that U.S Dollar is too strong causing U.S Index to shed $0.5 within 15 minutes, and today, U.S Index anchored at 99.91 low after clocking 101.24 on Monday. As a result, gold added $17 additional profits this week with a 1288.03 high, with expectation of bullish dilatation as tails yet to follow Trump's tweets. April is the lucky month for the yellow metal with $49 profits and +34.8% gains. XAUUSD can officially consider Trump as a strong ally and can count on Trump when desperate measures fail.

    Today, U.S Data has two major news with high impact, Producer Price Index PPI and Unemployment Rate, both scheduled for a release at 12:30 PM GMT, and market is anticipating the result and how Trump will tank U.S Dollar again.

    Technical Overview:

    Trend: Bullish

    Resistance levels: R1 1290.55, R2 1302.05, R3 1312.05

    Resistance levels: S1 1271.55, S2 1262.70, S3 1253.03

    Comment: Market to consider gold bullish due to the above fundamentals, but U.S data today could tackle rising cable or contribute to gold's bullish forces further. The pattern hints for a larger upswing if we see trade accelerate over 1285+, aiming at R2&R3 as a target. Any corrective dips should fight to hold over previous congestion at S1 level to keep strong bull forces. A penetration for S2 level in an alert for trend reversal, but only a close below 1249 is a 100% confirmation for bearish momentum.

    For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.

    Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.
    Last edited by FxGrow_Support; 04-13-2017 at 05:52 AM.

  6. #776
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    FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 13th April, 2017
    By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

    Japanese Yen Surges Over Tanked U.S Dollar, U.S Data Eyed


    USD/JPY extended the bearish momentum with 108.76 18-Dec-2016-fresh-lows supported by crisp U.S Dollar performance and upbeat Chinese Trade Balance. Overall, political tension starting with attacks on Syria and U.S battleship approaching North Korean offshore added political and economical uncertainties, hence Japanese Yen is a sacred refuge. Add to that, Trump comment yesterday that U.S Dollar is relatively too strong, tackled the Index to 99.91 low today with expectations that negative tails will follow such surprising deceleration. Trump also mentioned that question marks are placed next to Yellen as nomination for next U.S Fed presidency. Along came with it. Chinese trade balance early this morning scored $23.93B surplus versus +$10B expectations, adding more weight to Asian currencies.

    U.S Data today will give a better clue on how the pair will trade for the coming hours.

    Fundamentals:

    1 -USD - Producer Price Index today at 12:30 PM GMT.

    2- USD - Unemployment Rate today at 12:30 PM GMT.

    Technical overview:

    Trend: Bearish Sideways

    Resistance levels: R1 110.10, R2 111.04, R3 111.93

    Support levels: S1 108.59, S2 107.75, S3 106.95

    Comment: The market has turned bearish at the moment but keep an eyes on U.S Index levels. Trades below R1 will sustain bearish forces. A penetration for S1 level will increase selloffs and wash towards S2&S3 levels. On the other hand, a break above R1 level signs for larger bull waves R2 level at which, the pair will shift to bullish.

    For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.

    Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

  7. #777
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    FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 14th April, 2017
    By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

    EUR/USD Hovers With Tight Range, Eyes On U.S Data


    EUR/USD traded flat with stingy 22-pips price action and clocked a high 1.0627, still below 50-SMA (D1) at 1.0663, with a cautious tone persisting across the financial markets against the back drop of the geopolitical tensions surrounding North Korea and today's U.S Mother of all Bombs release on Afghanistan for the first time.

    On other hand, French elections knocking on doors with the first round on April 23 2017 and bets are placed by markets between Macron and Le Pen (Anti EU), expectations of high volatility before and after results. Will the EU witness another departure after Brexit and now Frexit?

    The pair awaits U.S Data today with Consumer Price Index and Retail Sales in focus. Forecasts for CPI is booked at 0% compared to 0.1% previously, whilst Retail sales scored 0.1% earlier and predictions are left untouched as previously. CPI and Retail sales will impact U.S Index highly, but these two data are vital for inflation and U.S Fed will be watching closely results which will either set the hawkish to dovish tone for next FOMC meeting.

    Fundamentals:

    1- USD - CPI and Retails sales today both scheduled at 12:30 PM GMT.

    Technical overview:

    Trend : Bearish

    Resistance levels: R1 1.0648 R2 1.0699, R3 1.0723

    Support levels : S1 1.0589, S2 1.0550, S3 1.0518

    Comment: The market is still in bear trend and the back off on Thursday cautions for pressured action early this week to test last week's basing levels at 1.0637. A close under 1.0637 indicates a further selloff towards S1 level. Trade may creep back higher, but a push over 1.0709 is needed to foster rallies to challenge 1.0738 for a short term bottoming upturn. U.S Data today will draw a better picture on how the cable shall perform.

    For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.

    Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

  8. #778
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    FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 19th April, 2017
    By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

    Sterling Hikes Over Optimism Driven By Snap Early Elections, Awaiting Parliament Approval


    UK PM Theresa May stole the thunder yesterday despite current political tension hovering over the globe first by a sudden scheduling for media press, second by surprising call for UK's early elections by 8th of June, although the lady had previously disapproved such move. As a result, Sterling was on a chaotic ride with an incline destination, surging +390-pips as daily market action and GBP/USD clocked 1.2905 4th-Oct-2017 fresh highs with a reminder of Brexit's volatility before and after the referendum. U.S Dollar yesterday soared and has seen pale as the U.S Index plunged -$0.94 with April-fresh-lows at 99.34 facing sharp British Pound. Currently the pair trades 1.2826 intraday and has over passed 200 SMA at 1.2623.

    PM May's move called for UK citizens for once and all, open a new page, let the people decide, and put Brexit behind. The house of Commons will vote today for May's proposal with signs of approval which should boost GBP/USD higher. On the other hand, any rejection could result of a collapsing Sterling and digesting yesterday's gains.

    Fundamentals:

    1- GBP - UK House of Commons decision on PM May early election today.

    2- USD - Unemployment Claims tomorrow at 12:30 PM GMT.

    3- GBP - BOE's Gov. Carney speech tomorrow at 3:30 PM and 4:30 PM GMT.

    Technical Overview:

    Trend: Bullish

    Resistance levels: R1 1.2938, R2 1.3022, R3 1.3154

    Support levels: S1 1.2767, S2 1.2683, S3 1.2595

    Summary: The explosive rally signals a significant upside breakout from a coiling congestion pattern on a weekly chart, creating a target at R3. The strong close yesterday alerts for a dilation for bullish forces. Be careful from resistance at R2 +/-. Any congestion over 1.2721 will likely develop a bull flag or staging level for rallies. A close below S3 is needed for trend reversal. Be aware of setbacks as a test on S&R level due to high volatility for the cable. PM early election proposal is the main gear for GBP/USD movement.

    For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.

    Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

  9. #779
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    FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 19th April, 2017
    By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

    Crude oil Slips Over API Report, U.S Inventories in Focus


    Crude Oil levels dipped -$0.76 yesterday with a 52.09 low, a minor downward correction after API report showed that U.S. crude stockpiles fell less than expected in the latest week while gasoline stockpiles grew unseasonably, but markets remained bloated. On Wednesday, oil showed stability with 52.61 high after OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo mentioned that all oil producers taking part in a supply-cut treaty are committed to deliver global inventories down to the industry's five year average and restoring stability to the market.

    OPEC and non-OPEC producers agreed in December to cut supplies for six months, helping lift oil prices to about $55 a barrel after a two-year slump. OPEC will review policy for the second half of this year at a May 25 meeting.

    Barkindo, crossed wires in the United Arab Emirates, saying that compliance data in March is showing better conformity by the oil producers with the agreement than in February.

    OPEC with other producers like Russia, has agreed to curb output by almost 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) during the first half of the year. Saudi crude exports dropped to 6.96M bpd during February, from 7.7 million bpd in January, according to (Jodi). Its production, however, rose to 10 million bpd in February, up from 9.75 million bpd in January, as domestic refiners processed more oil. (Reuters).

    Trump recently waived that Iran's nuclear treaty will be revised, but ever since sanctions were lifted against Tehran, crude oil exports has doubled and more which kept market oil supplies overloaded and contributed to oil bearish levels, at that, Trump has the time to consider any move towards Iran, since it's of U.S interest to maintain lower oil levels.

    Look forward for U.S Inventories today which will impact crude levels for the next coming days.

    Technical overview:

    Trend: Bullish sideways

    Resistance levels: R1 52.67, R2 53.22, R3 54.05

    Support levels : S1 52.08 , S2 51.48, S3 50.78

    Comment: The market remains short term bullish with choppy trading. Closing above R1 will sustain bullish forces and projects for a larger hike towards R2&R3. A close below S1 alerts for futher selloffs with congestion and wash towards S2&S3. Below S3, market will shift bearish.

    For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.

    Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

  10. #780
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    FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 20th April, 2017
    By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

    Gold Retreats As Political Tension Fades Away, Eyes on U.S Data


    Gold shed -$16.79 yesterday with a 1273.81 weekly fresh lows due to aggressive selling and abandoning buying positions, still above 200 D1 SMA at 1255. Last week and Monday's rallies supported by geopolitical tension, lifted gold to 1295.27 2017-highs. Although political and economical uncertainties has temporary lulled, the coming days will witness arousing events. first from the French elections round this Sunday, to PM May's call for early British elections which was approved yesterday and on May the 2nd, the Parliament will be dissolved. Add to that, Trump's and his unpredictable tweets and propaganda media announcements are always on Stand-buy position, could provoke gold yet again as traders leans to the yellow metal as a sacred haven substitute.

    Fundamentals:

    1- USD - Unemployment Claims today at 12:30 PM GMT.

    2- French Elections This Sunday.

    Technical Overview:

    Trend: Bullish Sideways

    Resistance levels: R1 1284.02, R2 1295.80, R3 1310.81

    Support levels : S1 1271.15, S2 1264.28, S3 1256.64

    Comment: Gold remains bullish despite yesterday's minor down correction. Staying above S1 sustains bullish forces and calls for additional rallies and a penetration for R2 level will dilate further gains towards R3. The other scenario, longing below S1 level will increase selloffs with congestion and wash towards S2&S3. A close below S3 calls for trend reversal and market to consider gold bearish. Keep an eye on U.S Index levels and French elections this Sunday with end results will have an impact on Gold.

    For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.

    Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

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