Daily Technical Analysis by Admiral Markets - Page 13
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  1. #121
    JoshDavis is offline Verified Broker Support for Admiral Markets Senior Member
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    USD/CAD Bullish but Watch for Possible Bearish SHS Pattern

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    The USD/CAD spiked above the inner trend line with a strong marubozu candle making the POC zone strong enough on a possible retest. 1.3110-30 (H4, trend line, EMA89, ATR pivot) hasn't been re-tested yet on 4h time frame and subsequent retest could spike the price even more higher, towards 1.3220 and 1.3290. 1.3220 is strong resistance and only 4h close above, might spike the price towards 1.3290 otherwise it might give us short term bearish opportunities. If that happens, the USD/CAD will form bearish SHS pattern (head and shoulders) and we could see a rejection towards 1.3130 zone again. The pair is bullish until 1.2960 breaks to the downside. If that happens 1.2900 and 1.2800 will be exposed. The USD/CAD analysis is valid till the rest of the week. so traders should focus now on either POC rejection or a counter trade opportunities.

  2. #122
    JoshDavis is offline Verified Broker Support for Admiral Markets Senior Member
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    GBP/USD Master Candle Marks Trend Continuation

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    As I showed on Session Recap webinar, the GBP/USD has been in a steady uptrend that was almost interrupted by a stop grabber candle that was initiated after bad GBP/USD data yesterday. At this time we can see a Master Candle (MC) formed and a breakout above 1.2518 should spike the price towards 1.2560 and eventually 1.2600 zone. If a MC breaks lower below 1.2474 then it should retrace to POC zone 1.2435-50 where we might see a bounce towards 1.2515 and above. At this point the GBP/USD is still bullish and watch for a possible trend continuation.

  3. #123
    JoshDavis is offline Verified Broker Support for Admiral Markets Senior Member
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    EUR/JPY Trapped in a Consolidation Pattern


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    The EUR/JPY has been consolidating close to POC zone with M emerging pattern shaping up. The POC 121.15-30 (trend line, ATR pivot, 78.6, order block) is also very close to H4 camarilla resistance and rejections from the zone could confirm M pattern. Rejections from POC targets 120.75 and a break of 120.70 targets 120.54, 120.15 and 119.90. If the price spikes above 121.30 we might see 121.65 that is the top of ATR projection. As long as the EUR/JPY is capped below 121.65, chance for a bearish continuations are good.

  4. #124
    JoshDavis is offline Verified Broker Support for Admiral Markets Senior Member
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    CAD/JPY Downtrend Progressing Towards L4

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    As this week is a bit light with fundamental data and we have US holiday today, it is time to shift our attention towards crosses that are trending and have the scope to move during late New York/Tokyo session later. The CAD/JPY shows a bearish zigzag that might be targeting L3 and L4 camarilla levels. At this point the price is below historical low of a previous Master Candle and as long as it stays below it, continuation towards L3/L4 could happen without a retracement to POC. however a break above previous master candle low might trigger a retracement towards POC 86.60-75 (H4, ATR Pivot, 88.6, inner trend line). Rejection and continuation should target 85.90 and 85.65.

  5. #125
    JoshDavis is offline Verified Broker Support for Admiral Markets Senior Member
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    GBP/JPY is at a Crossroads

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    The GBP/JPY is standing at a crossroads there and we might see either a continuation down or a spike. The POC zone(H4, 50.0, trend line, ATR pivot) to watch for is 140.35-47, and the spike above 140.47 might target 140.95 and 141.14. in the case of rejection from POC, levels to watch for are 139.95 and 139.50. At this point this looks like a consolidation before possible breakout in either direction.

  6. #126
    JoshDavis is offline Verified Broker Support for Admiral Markets Senior Member
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    EUR/USD Five 0 Pattern Marks Two Way Trading

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    The main focus of this week is on mostly on NFP and EUR Bid Rate decision. With the market expectation of 3 rate hikes this year by the Fed, all eyes will be on this week's NFP numbers. The key test for the Fed is to ensure that inflation is improving and full employment is maintained. However, if NFP is bulging above 200k, then it may give incentive to hike sooner rather than later. ECB is not expected to change the rate at this point.
    Technically, the EUR/USD is in downtrend but due to Yellen's comments about possible March rate hike, investors turned to profit taking where we saw the EUR/USD spiking up on Friday profit taking. Traders need to watch possible spikes from POC buy zone 1.0555-64 ( L4, EMA 89, 5-0) and possible sell within 1.0660-80 zone (H3, ATR top, 88.6) where we can also see historical sellers. I am more inclined to sell on rallies due to higher time frame trends and EU problems with France, Italy and Netherlands but for intraday swings, two way trading is possible. Targets are camarilla pivots between these two POC zones.

  7. #127
    JoshDavis is offline Verified Broker Support for Admiral Markets Senior Member
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    NZD/USD Equidistant Channel in a Strong Downtrend

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    The NZD/USD has been dropping consistently within the Equidistant channel versus its counterpart USD mainly due to expectations the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next week while the Reserve Bank of New Zealand keeps its rate low. Additionally, the dairy prices fell in the overnight auction, adding to overall NZD weakness. The POC zone is 0.6935-50 (H4, DPP, equidistant channel top, ATR top) and we might expect new rejection if the price gets within the zone. 1h momentum or 4h close below 0.6890 marks the continuation towards 0.6858 and 0.6840. The ATR has been low but consistent so the NZD could be also suitable for traders who are afraid to trade volatile pairs.

  8. #128
    JoshDavis is offline Verified Broker Support for Admiral Markets Senior Member
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    EUR/USD Bullish Switch on Short Term Trend

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    The US is on track for 3 hikes this year, and a few more in following years, but there were mentions during previous week that the ECB too may shift to normalising rates also in due time, so at this point we see a possible change in direction on this pair. The POC zone 1.0725-40 (L3, trend line, EMA 89, ATR pivot 23.6) and if 1.0670 stays strong we might see 1.0800 and 1.0840. The uptrend has been established by strong momentum candle (highlighted in green) and it seems we might see a continuation. Watch for any rejections from POC and break of 1.0780 if it happens short term.

  9. #129
    JoshDavis is offline Verified Broker Support for Admiral Markets Senior Member
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    GBP/USD Bullish Cup With Handle Formation

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    The GBP/USD has formed a cup with handle pattern on H1 timeframe, suggesting further upside. W H4 camarilla is acting as support as the price broke above it, and it forms a clear handle at the brim of a cup. 1.2480 might spike the price to the upside, targeting D H3 H4 and H5 levels respectively, -1.2516, 1.2538, and 1.2580. If the price breaks below the handle, look for possible POC (D L3, double bottom, ATR pivot) 1.2425-45 rejection.

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    D L3 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Daily Interim Support)
    D H3 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Daily Interim Resistance)
    D H4 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Strong Daily Resistance)
    D L4 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Very Strong Daily Support)
    D L5 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Strongest Daily Support)
    W H4 - Weekly H4 Camarilla (Weekly Interim Resistance)

  10. #130
    JoshDavis is offline Verified Broker Support for Admiral Markets Senior Member
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    USD/CAD ABCD Pattern Marks the Support

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    The rate cut wasn’t on the table yesterday as economic data in Canada has improved. Slightly hawkish stance of BOC’s chief Poloc reflected on the USD/CAD, sending the dollar down straight to W L5 support. At this point, we see an ABCD pattern at D L3 support, so the break of 1.3250 could spur a correction towards 1.3300 where we see a bearish POC (ATR top, EMA89, bearish order block, W L4) within 1.3300-1.3320. Rejections from POC target 1.3220 and 1.3190.

    Keep in mind that if 1.3250 is not broken to the upside, we might see a straight drop below 1.3218 for 1.3190 and 1.3145 final D L5 target.

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    D L3 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Daily Interim Support)
    D H3 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Daily Interim Resistance)
    D H4 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Strong Daily Resistance)
    D L4 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Very Strong Daily Support)
    D L5 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Strongest Daily Support)
    W L5 - Weekly H4 Camarilla (Strongest Weekly Resistance)
    POC - Point Of Confluence (The zone where we expect price to react aka entry zone)

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