GBPUSD has been trading inside an equidistant channel which supports the uptrend zig zag. The price has been making higher highs and higher lows which is showing us a scholastic example of uptrend. At 78.6 fib – deeper retracement there is a strong confluence with equidistant channel lower trend line so the price might get a bounce in the zone ( 1.5670-85 ) and try another push toward 1.5740 and 1.5780. That being said if the price gets H4 close above cam H4 level ( 1.5780 ) it will target 1.5855 the confluence spot of H5 and upper equidistant channel.
The bullish bias should persist as long as GBPUSD is above 1.5620.
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USDJPY reached 120.50 after a big spike down preceded by PBOC decision to reduce its interest rate and ease bank reserve requirements. Technically a huge drop which we see on USDJPY chart is actually a BEARISH PENNANT and short to mid term the pair could bounce from 120.50 targeting even 114.40 levels (!). Bearish pennant can be seen on H4 chart but zooming in we can see it better on H1 chart. Adding the flagpole distance to the projected distance from breakout and we get 114.40.
Weekly cam pivots show L4/L5 confluence with a bearish pennant adding one more part of chart confluence. The projected move is short to mid term. Intraday shorts could reach 119.10 zone. Have in mind that the move is valid as long as 121.50 stands strong.
Original material is provided by Admiral Markets
GBPUSD felt heavily after EUROSTOXX50 futures surged couple of days ago and was influenced by a global fear of China slowdown and PBOC Yuan devaluation. Also, BOE is still holding off from rate hikes and we have some clues that the hike could come at the end of the year. BOE’s governor Carney unwillingness to share any more details about recent events and possible rate hike led to a strong sell off of GBPUSD pair.
Technically the pair sold off 1.5800-20 zone as i suggested on LIVE webinars- pre fact, but even I am a bit surprised of the huge GBPUSD weakness in the recent days. 1.5530 level shows the X Cross- the intersection of trend lines. X cross usually finds strong confluence with other price factors, this time it is H5 camarilla pivot. 1.5530 is a strong point for taking short trades. Interim resistance is 1.5445 zone as we can see H3 camarilla and double top confluence. Interim support lies at 1.5360 and if that level is broken the price should accelerate to 1.5330. Notice that 1.5330 is previous double bottom and when you are reading price action you should always take HISTORICAL price action into account. Historical buyers lie at 1.5330 and in the context of historical vs now moment buyers we could see bounce from that spot. if 1.5330 is lost 1.5260 is next
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Not surprisingly RBA decided to put rates on hold , leaving rates unchanged. During RBA monetary policy meeting it was concluded that the inflation forecast is consistent whereas low interest rates support both borrowing and spending. RBA statement caused just a small bounce in the pair effectively leaving the pair within the sideways range.
Technically last 10 days AUDUSD has been trading below 0.7200 and any rallies toward have been a chance to short it further as I have stated before. The pair shows hidden divergence and compression triangle shows a possible breakout soon. Hidden bearish divergence is telling us that the pair is ready to proceed down possibly testing 0.7070 and 0.7020. Anyway, for trend traders some pullback is required as R:R is significantly higher then. POC comes around 0.7205 spot and if 0.7230 stays strong , another good opportunity for short is there. Historical sellers, 50.0 fib, Divergence top all constitute a strong POC and upper trendline of the triangle will be adjusted then too for additional resistance.
AUDUSD is bearish targeting 0.7070, 0.7020 and 0.6990 but the decision should be about either going for a breakout trade or a classic pullback trend trade.
Original material is provided by Admiral Markets
If you remember my past article about EURUSD on 24.AUG I warned that 1.1255 is crucial for EURUSD upside. EURUSD dropped mainly because of Chinese equity markets, Shaghai index and EUROSTOXX50 futures especially at London open. Some hawkish comments about possible rate hike also gave boost to USDx which additionally lowered the pair. Yesterday we saw 2 rejections from 1.1260 each for 50+ pips and finally 1.1260 level was broken again. PMI rose to 53.3 from 51.8 and it better then preliminary estimate.
Technically we can spot HUGE Bearish M pattern which went below 1.1260 and it stopped at 1.1155 .EURUSD was sold subsequent spike to 1.1260 ( green circles ) and we can easily spot Historical vs Now moment sellers. Last drop from 1.1260 was good for intraday shorts but now the price is heavily bought from BUFFER ZONE. BUFFER zone shows clear levels which we should be focused on.
Historical PA shows BPC pattern at 1.1260 (1) so my conclusion is – as long as EURUSD is above 1.1260 it is bullish and below 1.1155 it is bearish. MACD is gaining a possible momentum ( when above 0 line ) so above 1.1260 we can expect 1.1360 and 1.1395. Only h4 close above 1.1395 will target 1.1500 again.
Below 1.1155 we can expect 1.1000 but so far this looks like a bullish price action with a possible scope for 1.17 retest.
Original material is provided by Admiral Markets
While we are patiently waiting for FOMC meeting we need to know that interest rate differential between US and Switzerland definitely favors the dollar. Having a record unemployment rate at 5.1 % FOMC is a step closer to rate hike and recent Yellen comments suggested that China turmoil had no significant impact on FED’s plans about the hike.
USDCHF is buy the dips mode. Technically we can spot V shaped reversal which has been very strong to the extent that it is forming a giant inverted head and shoulders pattern on H4 chart. We should be focused on a retracement towards 0.9630-40 zone ( 78.6, previous buyers, L3, X cross ) If the retracement happens we could take a long position with a good r:r . Inner trendline is providing support so 0.9595 should hold ( inner trend line, 88.6 ).
Rejection from POC targets 0.9760 and H4 close above the level will target 0.9820.
The GBPUSD fell sharply after UK deficit rose. Adding to that public borrowing has risen unexpectedly and BOE revised down their growth outlook for the next half of the year. We also see no rate hike hints in near future.
Technically we can see that a giant triangle on the pair has been broken to the downside. On 4 hour time frame there has been no retest at this point. Also we see that POC ( L4,23,6, previous double bottom/historical sellers ) stands at 1.5320-40 and if its reached the pair should dip towards 1.5250 and 1.5190 initially. Have in mind also that when watching lower time frames we can also see that 1.5275 too is a level to watch for as it shows confluence on lower TFs.
NZDUSD pair is correlated to Chinese markets and China A50 index and any turmoil is reflected on the pair. Weak data reflects at the price and as I analyzed it earlier NZDUSD is sold on rallies. Next fade could come soon as we can spot a strong POC which could reject the price.
POC comes at 0.6410-30 as we see a confluence of historical sellers ( blue rectangles ), H3, 88.6 deep fib retracement and X cross. Initially NZDUSD is targeting 0.6295 zone and if H4 candle closes below 0.6295 (L4 camarilla) then Breakout-Pullback-Continuation pattern should target 0.6250 and 0.6220. Have in mind that H4 camarilla pivot needs to hold ( 0.6480 ) for the price to remain bearish.
The AUDUSD has had a relief rally after the RBA decided to keep the rates at 2 %. The RBA indicated at the start of 2015 that it wanted to achieve 0.75 for the AUDUSD pair; currently it has surpassed this achievement as it is currently at 0.7200. As I have also explained 2 days ago on that basis, I doubt the RBA will cut rates further. Having said that, if commodities continue to weaken further, expect AUDUSD to weaken further under free markets.
Technically we have 2 POCs. The first POC is 0.7210-0.7225 zone (61.8, descending trend line) and the price could reject here BUT we see that HISTORICAL sellers are a bit higher. POC 2 shows historical sellers, 78.6 ,and X-cross. The zone is 0.7255-70 and if the price get here, we could expect now moment sellers. First target for any rejection off POC or POC2 is 0.7190 zone (H3, 89 EMA) then 0.7150 and 0.7110 (23.6, inner trend line )
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The AUDUSD managed to recover after a big drop caused by equities, Chinese market and Yuan devaluation. As we know, Chinese markets correlate to AUD and a possible loss of competitiveness in Chinese export market is also negative for AUD.
Technically AUDUSD is sitting at POC 0.7005-15 (H3, DPP, 50.0) and it could reject towards 0.6950. The problem is that Equidistant channel is out of sync with price which is caused by a bullish divergence. That could spike the price up towards 0.7040 zone (H4,E89,78.6) and the price should reject towards 0.6950. In order for the price to follow with a bearish trend continuation, the pair should close below 0.6945 (L3 within EQ channel) and a close below should target 0.6911.
At this point it is important to see if the price rejects from POC and POC2 as it is still in a bearish trend.
After a strong bounce from 1.0800 the EURUSD is still bought on dips. The lack of important data today and US bank holiday will probably keep the pair within the range, but it will also give us the opportunity to long on dips.
Technically POC comes within 1.0870-80 (L3, X cross.T-89 pattern) and it is also supported by a hidden bullish divergence. Hidden divergence is a trend continuation type of divergence and in this case it supports the bounces off the support. Adding to that we can see the Ascending scallop pattern right off the trend line.
However, the pair needs to stay above 1.0800 and only below 1.0800 we will see stop grabbing towards 1.0740 zone.
After yesterday’s BOE Governor mr.Mark Carney comments where he stated there was no timetable for raising interest rates, GBPUSD fell heavily from POC suggested both 1.4225 and 1.4050 levels. The first rejection off 1.4225 made more than 100 pips to the upside but Carney’s comments made a huge drop in the exchange rate. In the midst of Chinese growth hitting 25y low we have concluded that BOE is unlikely to raise interest rates soon.
Technically GBPUSD is sold on rallies. 1.4200 has been broken and we should pay attention to a possible retest. The price is in retracement due to regular bullish divergence and 1.4200-10 is looking interesting for intraday shorts. However, better retracement could come at POC which is a tad higher within 1.4235-60 zone. We see a multiple confluence of previous double bottom, 50.0,61.8 H4 and EMA89. The buffer zone for shorts 1.4235-60 is bigger due to a multiple important confluence points. The targets are 1.4124 and 1.4095. If 1.4124 breaks we could see a breakout setup towards 1.4095 without any retracement to the upside. Below 1.4095 we have a very important level which is 1.4050.
So we need to pay attention to 1.4200-10 and 1.4235-60 with a potential breakout of 1.4124.
The EURUSD has completed its first swing within he channel and on intraday chart we can see a range with bearish bias. POC comes within 1.0850-60 zone (H4, EMA89, EQ channel top, previous breakout spot) and the price could be rejected towards 1.0770-50. Only a clear break of 1.0770 can tank the price down to 1.0710.
However if we see a strong momentum or 4h close above 1.0880 we could see 1.0920 and 1.0970. So, from R:R perspective shorts are justified as long as EURUSD stays within POC range and stops are placed slightly above 1.0880.
USDJPY momentum suggesting bullish continuation
BoJ’s dovish move to introduce negative rates was in response to poor inflation in Japan and a strengthening JPY, which the later, has the potential to cause a negative impact on its economy and its exports. Nonetheless, in the short term, the JPY should weaken on this news.
The pair has made a momentum break above L4 support -119.30 and EMA89 has closed above suggesting a valid breakout. The price may either a) continue with the trend b) retrace to POC zone (DPP, L3, 50.0). Watch the chart carefully- because we have a strong momentum break on USDJPY we might see a shallow retracement to 23.6 (blue coloured -121.00) and the price might continue towards H3 resistance at 121.95.
If the price respects a zig-zaggish standard retracement pattern, it could drop towards POC and reject from there. The zone is 120.15-30 and as long as the price holds above 119.30 the targets are 121.95 and 122.80 if we get hourly or 4h close above 121.95.
The GBPUSD has spiked above 1.4600 zone and as I have shown in the latest AUDUSD coverage very often a retracement is mistaken for a trend change which is wrong. Similarly to AUDUSD (which has perfectly rejected from POC making 180 possible pips), the GBPUSD is in a similar situation. Any retracement towards POC zone could be considered another sell into rally with the 1.4255-40 as the target zone.
POC (Xcross, 50.0, EMA89, Bearish order block) comes within 1.4500-10 zone. Rejections from the zone target 1.4375 and 1.4240. Around 1.4240 the price might bounce making another retracement to the upside. A strong 1H momentum or 4h close below 1.4375 should also tank the price towards 1.4240.
The light volume and lower volatility made AUDUSD possible trade bidirectionally. The initial rebound from 0.7050 made 30 pips initially as suggested on previous Session Recap webinar followed by a decline caused by investors dumping assets. Today’s FED’s chief Yellen testimony could be volatile and that is why I recommend caution. The testimony has been scheduled for 15:00 GMT. As head of the central bank, which controls short term interest rates, she has more influence over the nation’s currency value than any other person so pay attention to subtle clues about future monetary policy.
Technically the AUDUSD could retrace towards POC zone (0.7125-40) that consists of H3, triple top, 61.8 and X-cross ™. However, we can also see Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern on H1 but also a HUGE Head and Shoulders variant characterized by the triple top.If the price rejects from POC it could target 0.7080-70 (EMA89 and 38.2 fib) potentially going lower towards 0.7030 and 0.7000. If the price makes a 4h close above 0.7150, bearish rejection could be negated.
USDJPY has tanked breaking important patterns and supports clearly showing risk-off sentiment. Purely risk off sentiment across markets is the cause for Yen to appreciate against the G10 currencies.Many carry trades involving cheap credit from Japan are invested across foreign markets, and during risk-off, many of those trades are reversed and repatriated back into Yen, causing demand for Yen.
Technically USDJPY still has the room to fall down. As we can see on the chart, bear pennant has been broken to the downside making USDJPY hit L5 weekly CAM support. Pullbacks within POC zone 113.90-114.10 could be used for another short selling. The zone shows strong confluence selling at the Bearish pennant breakout and we should see institutional selling again if the price retraces.
However if the price breaks now moment double bottom -110.98 it should proceed to 110.06 previous weekly high.
We have heard many times before “Buy the dips, sell the rips”. Recently we had some USD gains and there were some rumours that OPEC may cut production, so Oil price went up. If OPEC cuts production traders should go long all equities with both CAD and RUB currency crosses. Remember Oil is connected to CAD and RUB. Because USA and Canadian markets are on holiday we are not seeing some big price movements at this moment.
Technically USDCAD is showing multiple patterns suggesting that selling on rallies is the option. At the top price has failed to break the neckline of inverted Head and Shoulders. It dropped heavily making a correction with the successful break of inverted head and shoulders at the bottom. The backwind of Inverted Head and Shoulders made a Bear flag variant pattern and 1.3885-1.3900 looks like a good place to short. POC (38.2, H3, EMA89, H3, DPP) should hold the price and in the case of positional POC sell the target is 1.3780. Any breakout below 1.3780 targets 1.3710. We should pay attention to current price around 1.3820 as it shows a potential inverted head and shoulders in progress which if realized could spike the price UP towards our POC for a subsequent sell.
As we know AUDUSD is a hard commodity currency.Basically, when its risk-on environment, commodities prices tend to increase, and traders go long AUD due to that factor. When commodities prices go up, Stock Markets go up and there is demand for positive swaps on AUD pairs currently as opposed to JPY (JPY weakened today). AUD bounce has also been stimulated by the PBOC, Oil and RBA. Oil is connected to commodity currencies so it gave AUD additional boost.
Technically AUDUSD is showing a possible breakout and positional trading. The pair is slowly grinding up in an ascending channel towards important levels. If the price retraces to 0.7130-40 POC (50.0, WPP, EMA89) we might see another bounce towards 0.7212. The price is currently 0.7191 so we might even see a direct test of 0.7212 before any retracement.
If the price closes above the channel and makes a breakout above the channel and H4 confluence (0.7215), next level should be 0.7267. So pay attention to any retacement towards POC for long setups or a breakout as stated above.
Risk warning: your capital is at risk
An unexpected jump in Crude Oil inventories (It influences the price of petroleum products that affects both growth and inflation) had a small impact on USDCAD yesterday as gains were limited and the pair continued to tank during US session.
The USDCAD is technically bearish and we can see a strong POC at 1.3465-80 (H4, X cross, EMA89, the channel top) that we can use for possible short trades. However the price is showing sellers in now moment (green rectangle) and we could see an immediate rejection towards 1.3390. If that doesn’t happen eyes should be on POC. The pair is initially targeting 1.3390 and a strong momentum or H1/H4 close below 1.3365 will target 1.3320-10, the channel bottom and L5 confluence zone.
