Daily Technical Analysis by Admiral Markets
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  1. #1
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    Default Daily Technical Analysis by Admiral Markets

    USDCAD is retracing towards POC

    US FED will release the statement today, without any press conference and we will probably have some range-bound market till FED statement. Expectations towards rate hike are rising and we could see a rate hike in between September and December. US CPI has come in line with expectations, Core Durable Orders also while major news release for CAD will be GDP later in the week (Friday). However any mention of a possible hike is bullish to USD and traders will pay close attention to FED’s statement.
    Technically USDCAD has broken through 4h trend line and it is falling towards POC. POC1 (L4, triple bottom, 50.0 fib ) comes at 1.2930 zone and the zone could reject the price. If the retracement continues, next zone to watch for is 1.2865-45 (L5, 61.8 fib) just above strong round number support which makes a confluence with double top/historical breakout point and 78.6. That support is naturally 1.2800. If the pair gains upward momentum after rejection it will target .1.3030 and 1.3100. Only H4 close above 1.3100 will target 1.3150.
    However a drop below 1.2800 could extend towards 1.2750 and 1.2700.

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  2. #2
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    Default USDJPY strength even after bad advance GDP data

    USDJPY strength even after bad advance GDP data

    USDJPY has bounced after FED statement which clearly stated that the rate hike is inevitable after further job gains. We think it could come in September or December, but December seems more likely. According to Reuters poll economic growth in US is picking up pace which goes in accordance with FED’s possible tightening monetary policy in September.
    USD has shown strength even after bad preliminary GDP data.
    Technically USDJPY is showing V shaped reversal variant 2 with a possible rejection from current levels towards 123.40 zone. If rejection happens we could use POC zone at 123.40 ( 78.6, L4, historical buyers ) for a new long trade towards 124.55. 4H close above 124.55 will target 125.05.Judging from current sentiment even lower TFs show a predominant long trend and if we align lower with higher TF we are getting a good picture of an overall trend

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  3. #3
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    Default NZDUSD is showing Bearish Divergence

    Last week NZDUSD dropped by a huge percent after PBOC devalued Yuan. Usually soft commodities ( AUD ) perform better then hard commodities ( NZD ), but this time NZD also dropped by a volatilty caused by devaluation. The pair is correcting itself now, and technically it shows Regular Bearish Divergence on H1 chart.
    V Shaped Reversal that happened has retraced the pair to the level where it was sold instantly ( 0.6650 ), Next wave of sellers is showing up at POC ( H4, historical sellers, 61.8, regular bearish divergence ) at 0.6600 zone. Pullbacks towards 0.6600 could be used for further shorts towards 0.6550-40 and only a momentum break or 4H close below L4 ( 0.6540 ) would target 0.6510-00. Pay attention to the triangle as vortex of the triangle is close so, if the pair rejects from POC it still needs to pass below DPP/L3/Triangle lower TL ( 0.6550-40 )

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    Default EURUSD Forming a Rising wedge

    Waiting for FOMC meeting minutes and report which is due on Wednesday, EURUSD has dropped after 4h closed below 1.1070. Fundamentally economic growth in Germany looks strong as we know that lower EUR fits exporters such as Germany. But still. Every FED meeting minutes is important as we might get a clue on rate hike timing
    Technically the pair shows strong confluence at 1.1070 and 1.1000 zone. 1.1070 is showing the battle between buyers and sellers ,indicated by wicks, but also weekly PP. We know that PP are used for placing new orders , so traders should always pay attention to both Daily and Weekly PP. If we get H4 close ( presumably with stronger body ) above 1.1070, the pair could proceed to test 1.1185 and 4h close above 1.1185 will target 1.1250-65 the confluence zone of ascending upper trend line and H4 camarilla pivot.
    Looking the downside we can spot lower ascending trend line, previous lows and inner trend line thrust. It is clear that 1.1000 is very important. Below EURUSD is targeting 1.0940 and if we get 4h close below it should target 1.0820-10.
    Looking at the whole picture it looks like EURUSD is setting up for a Rising wedge ( upper ascending and lower ascending TL ) which is bearish. As the main trend is bearish, adding the forming of a bearish wedge, EURUSD could be traded both ways but selling into rallies is the better option at the moment.

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  5. #5
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    Default GBPUSD is bullish above 1.5620

    GBPUSD has been trading inside an equidistant channel which supports the uptrend zig zag. The price has been making higher highs and higher lows which is showing us a scholastic example of uptrend. At 78.6 fib – deeper retracement there is a strong confluence with equidistant channel lower trend line so the price might get a bounce in the zone ( 1.5670-85 ) and try another push toward 1.5740 and 1.5780. That being said if the price gets H4 close above cam H4 level ( 1.5780 ) it will target 1.5855 the confluence spot of H5 and upper equidistant channel.
    The bullish bias should persist as long as GBPUSD is above 1.5620.

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  6. #6
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    Default USDJPY showing a bearish pennant confluence

    USDJPY reached 120.50 after a big spike down preceded by PBOC decision to reduce its interest rate and ease bank reserve requirements. Technically a huge drop which we see on USDJPY chart is actually a BEARISH PENNANT and short to mid term the pair could bounce from 120.50 targeting even 114.40 levels (!). Bearish pennant can be seen on H4 chart but zooming in we can see it better on H1 chart. Adding the flagpole distance to the projected distance from breakout and we get 114.40.
    Weekly cam pivots show L4/L5 confluence with a bearish pennant adding one more part of chart confluence. The projected move is short to mid term. Intraday shorts could reach 119.10 zone. Have in mind that the move is valid as long as 121.50 stands strong.

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  7. #7
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    Default GBPUSD falling towards strong support

    GBPUSD felt heavily after EUROSTOXX50 futures surged couple of days ago and was influenced by a global fear of China slowdown and PBOC Yuan devaluation. Also, BOE is still holding off from rate hikes and we have some clues that the hike could come at the end of the year. BOE's governor Carney unwillingness to share any more details about recent events and possible rate hike led to a strong sell off of GBPUSD pair.

    Technically the pair sold off 1.5800-20 zone as i suggested on LIVE webinars- pre fact, but even I am a bit surprised of the huge GBPUSD weakness in the recent days. 1.5530 level shows the X Cross- the intersection of trend lines. X cross usually finds strong confluence with other price factors, this time it is H5 camarilla pivot. 1.5530 is a strong point for taking short trades. Interim resistance is 1.5445 zone as we can see H3 camarilla and double top confluence. Interim support lies at 1.5360 and if that level is broken the price should accelerate to 1.5330. Notice that 1.5330 is previous double bottom and when you are reading price action you should always take HISTORICAL price action into account. Historical buyers lie at 1.5330 and in the context of historical vs now moment buyers we could see bounce from that spot. if 1.5330 is lost 1.5260 is next

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  8. #8
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    Default AUDUSD Hidden bearish Divergence within Compression Triangle

    Not surprisingly RBA decided to put rates on hold , leaving rates unchanged. During RBA monetary policy meeting it was concluded that the inflation forecast is consistent whereas low interest rates support both borrowing and spending. RBA statement caused just a small bounce in the pair effectively leaving the pair within the sideways range.
    Technically last 10 days AUDUSD has been trading below 0.7200 and any rallies toward have been a chance to short it further as I have stated before. The pair shows hidden divergence and compression triangle shows a possible breakout soon. Hidden bearish divergence is telling us that the pair is ready to proceed down possibly testing 0.7070 and 0.7020. Anyway, for trend traders some pullback is required as R:R is significantly higher then. POC comes around 0.7205 spot and if 0.7230 stays strong , another good opportunity for short is there. Historical sellers, 50.0 fib, Divergence top all constitute a strong POC and upper trendline of the triangle will be adjusted then too for additional resistance.
    AUDUSD is bearish targeting 0.7070, 0.7020 and 0.6990 but the decision should be about either going for a breakout trade or a classic pullback trend trade.

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  9. #9
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    Default EURUSD is bullish above 1.1260

    If you remember my past article about EURUSD on 24.AUG I warned that 1.1255 is crucial for EURUSD upside. EURUSD dropped mainly because of Chinese equity markets, Shaghai index and EUROSTOXX50 futures especially at London open. Some hawkish comments about possible rate hike also gave boost to USDx which additionally lowered the pair. Yesterday we saw 2 rejections from 1.1260 each for 50+ pips and finally 1.1260 level was broken again. PMI rose to 53.3 from 51.8 and it better then preliminary estimate.
    Technically we can spot HUGE Bearish M pattern which went below 1.1260 and it stopped at 1.1155 .EURUSD was sold subsequent spike to 1.1260 ( green circles ) and we can easily spot Historical vs Now moment sellers. Last drop from 1.1260 was good for intraday shorts but now the price is heavily bought from BUFFER ZONE. BUFFER zone shows clear levels which we should be focused on.
    Historical PA shows BPC pattern at 1.1260 (1) so my conclusion is – as long as EURUSD is above 1.1260 it is bullish and below 1.1155 it is bearish. MACD is gaining a possible momentum ( when above 0 line ) so above 1.1260 we can expect 1.1360 and 1.1395. Only h4 close above 1.1395 will target 1.1500 again.
    Below 1.1155 we can expect 1.1000 but so far this looks like a bullish price action with a possible scope for 1.17 retest.

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  10. #10
    JoshDavis is offline Verified Broker Support for Admiral Markets Senior Member
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    Default USDCHF buy into dips

    While we are patiently waiting for FOMC meeting we need to know that interest rate differential between US and Switzerland definitely favors the dollar. Having a record unemployment rate at 5.1 % FOMC is a step closer to rate hike and recent Yellen comments suggested that China turmoil had no significant impact on FED’s plans about the hike.
    USDCHF is buy the dips mode. Technically we can spot V shaped reversal which has been very strong to the extent that it is forming a giant inverted head and shoulders pattern on H4 chart. We should be focused on a retracement towards 0.9630-40 zone ( 78.6, previous buyers, L3, X cross ) If the retracement happens we could take a long position with a good r:r . Inner trendline is providing support so 0.9595 should hold ( inner trend line, 88.6 ).
    Rejection from POC targets 0.9760 and H4 close above the level will target 0.9820.

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