We are entering a super busy week with FOMC meeting on Wednesday to hog the limelight. Fed interest rate decision, accompanied by a press conference and economic projections will answer many questions of the traders’ and is expected to drive the market, especially the USD cross pairs. Bank of Japan and Reserve Bank of New Zealand also have their policy meetings this week. Eurozone’s Economic Bulletin, Markit PMIs and a speech from ECB President Mario Draghi will be the main euro drivers while in U.K. the BoE Quarterly Bulletin will be the epicenter.
The [B]week is starting[/B] with a Bank holiday in Japan on Monday and the day continues with the European current account figure for July, with the forecast to move to €27.2B seasonally adjusted from €28.2B before. Also, German Buba monthly report will be released which includes a detailed analysis of current and future economic conditions from the bank’s viewpoint. Later, the U.S. National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB) housing market index is forecasted to remain the same as the previous month, 60 level. The CB leading economic index for July will be released in Australia. Overnight, the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its meeting minutes.
Early on [B]Tuesday[/B], German producer price index for August will be announced and is forecasted to fall 1.5% yoy from a drop of 2% the previous month. Later in the day, the U.S. building permits for August are expected to have inclined to 1.159M from 1.144M which will probably have a positive impact on the dollar. Moreover, housing starts are expected to show a decrease in August to 1.200M from 1.211M before. In Canada, the BoC Governor Poloz speaks at 16:45GMT time and will be a significant event to watch for the CAD traders. Later in the day, in Japan, the exports will be announced and overnight, Bank of Japan press conference will take place. Also, the monetary policy statement will be in focus with the release of the interest rate decision. The central bank is expected to lower its interest rate at -0.15% from the already all-time lowest rate at -0.1%.
On [B]Wednesday[/B], the European Central Bank will hold its non-monetary policy meeting. In the U.K., the BoE Quarterly Bulletin report will be released. Later in the afternoon, the traders’ attention will turn to the spotlight event of the week. The multi-awaited Fed announcement following the two-days FOMC meeting. The committee will announce its interest rate decision at 16:00 GMT, which is very likely to be that they keep its main fund rate unchanged at 0.5% following the weaker than expected data released last week. The policymakers will also update and publish their economic projections for the next year accompanied by the monetary policy statement. This meeting will be especially interesting for the traders as it is the last meeting before December which includes economic projections and press conference which usually trigger more volatility than the others. Fed Chair Janet Yellen will speak half an hour after the big announcement to give details for central bank’s decisions. Later in the day, at 21:00 GMT, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will also announce its interest rate decision. No changes are expected following last month’s easing. The central bank lowered its main interest rate 25bp to 2% for the second time this year.
The focus on [B]Thursday[/B] will be on the ECB President Mario Draghi’s speech at 13:00 GMT time. Earlier in the day, Eurozone’s economic bulletin report will be released while in the U.S. the initial jobless are forecasted are coming out as usual. Moreover, the CB leading indicator is forecasted to slow its pace of growth at 0.1% mom in August from 0.4% before and the existing home sales also for August are forecasted to rose to 5.44M from 5.39M mom the previous month. Half an hour after ECB Draghi’s speech, in U.K., MPC member Cunliffe will give a speech. In the Eurozone area, the first estimation of consumer confidence for September is predicted to have a small rise to -8.4 from -8.5 before. In the midnight, the RBA Governor Philip Lowe will give a speech.
[B]Friday[/B] is a Markit day! In Germany, the Markit services, and manufacturing PMIs are released early in the day. The Markit composite PMI is also coming out with the forecast to be 53.2 in September from 53.3. In the Eurozone area, the manufacturing PMI is forecasted to worsen for September, moving to 51.5 from 51.7. On the other hand, the services PMI will remain the same while the PMI composite will be announced with the consensus to be lower at 52.8 for this month from 52.9 in the previous month. In Canada, the consumer price index and the retail sales are coming out.
