Happy Corner: Aussie (AUD) pairs

[FXcharts]

The Aud looks like it is trading within a converging range of 0.9950/1.0200, as per the chart, with a mild indication of a possible break to the topside, with a potential run to the 8 Dec high at 1.0380.
Interim downside Fibo support is seen at 1.0090 and 1.0010.
It would not surprise to see a continuation of the current range for the next session or two just through general lack of interest.

[bobmaninc]

I can mostly agree with your analysis. I dont see the pair doing much till the new year. Like you said mostly due to lack of intrest. However I see price smashing pairty a couple more times. There is most likely quite a few stops and orders to take out around there. If price does go for those orders then I see it going to taking out that swing low at .9877 if it can get enough momentum. I think it will as that will be where those entries at pairty will be looking to cash out and again there are most likley more stops around there to take out. Then big money will be in at a good price and yes then I think you are right on price is going up and way up. Then again this pair has been playing pairty so well its been painful to my account. I have been sitting on the sidelines for now. If price decides to rally off pairty like you say it will do the exact opposite of what I think and probably use pairty to trigger some stop to take out that swing high. Sure they are some stops resting up there to. Just not mine hehe. One thing is for sure though price is about to move pretty hard around the new year. Should be fun to watch from the sidelines as the bulls and bears fight to the death. I would love to get in on the action but really dont see anything solid enough. We will se though as the days click by.

[FXcharts]

I don't think it is worth getting too carried away looking for the medium/longer term direction at this stage. I do agree that there is a move coming - though which way I don't really have a clue at this point. The Euro is still a concern, as is China's slowing economy (The Shanghai Comp looks headed to sub 2100), and either could conspire to drag the Aud lower, but for now just stick with the range. Like you, I think it best to just stand aside at this point in time. Out of choice I would not mind being able to sell rallies into the 1.0380 area, leaving myself room to add to it with a SL on the whole position somewhere around 1.0540 , but looking for a return to current levels and below to take profit. Right now stand aside - probably till the New Year.

[FXcharts]

The Aud traded up to the downtrend resistance line at 1.0203 in Europe, which was flatly rejected and resulted in a sharp move down to 1.0070, before a partial bounce to around current levels. Conditions are extremely thin and volatility exaggerated.
For the time being we can continue to use the converging trendlines as a guideline, with the indictors hinting that we may see a test of the support levels in sessions to come. 1.0050, and then 0.9970 are the areas to watch and where bids are likely to be seen.
To the topside, 101.70 and 102 remain the immediate resistance levels to be overcome.
Asia is unlikely to do too much and 1.0050/1.0150 should easily cover it.

[paragon123]

Hi Fxcharts. Would you care to show us your latest graph?

____________________
You're never a loser until you quit trying.

[FXcharts]

Hi paragon123, I haven't posted here recently as been busy on my website upgrade, where you can see the charts on a daily basis if you are interested, but soon I will be a bit more active here. In the meantime go to the website (address is attached to the chart, above...).

[happypip]

This pair has been ridiculously oversold for the past few weeks and I'm thinking that a reversal could be in the works. Right now, a bullish divergence seems to be brewing on the 1-hour time frame, with stochastic making higher lows and AUD/USD making lower lows.

audusd.jpg

Will the Aussie snap out of its downtrend and jump back above parity this week? Let me know what you think!

[kaner25]

hello..yes that's a bullish divergence...i think that 1.0023 could be a resistance...so we should see maybe a small rebound
i'm a newbie...so correct me if i'm wrong!
have a nice day!

[alwjmonster]

hi happypip, i don't think reversal will form, in fact a small pullback like kaner25 said.. anyway i think still it's largely depend on how possibility the outcome of grexit.

[bobmaninc]

Good to see you around Happypip. So far you are correct the pair is back above pairty but not by much. Seems to have found a happy place at pairty. This is telling me that either direction it decides to go you better buckle up as its going to move fast.