bobmaninc's quest to short the Aussie into extinction

[yunny1]

Thanks Bob, I try to keep it as simple as I can. Less errors made...

[bobmaninc]

You know for the fun of it I was playing aroung with that starc indi (while I had a trading program lol) Its a very cool indicator. Not sure how to use it very well since some butthole just cant leave the viruses alone. Its ok though I will still be on BP not sure what they are trying to accomplish but there are not getting my money. If they want to know if I am profitable just follow me I cant keep my mouth shut I post every trade every time. No I am not signing up with myfxbook or any of that. If I cant keep people from messing with me on here I need no more trading related crap around that unlike this site has no benefit to me. Here I learn I have fun.

Sorry guys but this is starting to get under my skin. 3 in a month REALLY? If I wanted to deal with that I would watch porn all day and not little candle sticks moving around on my charts lol.

[bobmaninc]

Ok in my attempt to show everyone my quest to short the Aussie. I am going to try to get this thread on track.

After todays events I will show what I am looking for. On my last chart I posted I wanted to see price hit the 128 fib of the last swing and show me something to get short. Well it hit it but didnt show signs of a short so no trades this week as tomorrow is Friday. Price smashed the 128 Fib and like I said if price did break this level I would wait for the 162% fib. This level is looking promising as it is OTE from the major swing (the swing can better be seen on the weekly but you can see it as I marked it on the daily. This area also has a S/R level along with the 1.05 figure and will sucessfully run the stops I talked about on my last chart post. What I will be looking for is price to hit this area and reverse creating a hammer (inverted hammer) by fridays close. If I get this I will look to get in on sunday/monday at the 50% retracement of the hammers wick. I will also look for pivots and anything else that will give me confluence as the days unfold. Still a ways out I was looking for something today but I have nothing that screams short me. So its the sidelines I sit on for now. Hopefully I get something next week. Here is a chart. Sorry for the clutter but I wanted to show the confluence with the 162% fib and ote off the weekly with support and all that good stuff.


On a side note even though I made no trades this week it was a profitable week as I closed out a trade from last week for about 150 pips. Stay tuned as I continue my quest to short the Aussie into extinction.

[bobmaninc]

Its Saturday night and markets are closed for me. I want to take the time to show what I am like to see next week. I will not post a daily chart as it pretty much looks the same as the one above except Friday was a red candle. Price pushed down on Friday but did not show anything that screamed short me on any time frames I look at. I look at the Monthly and weekly but pay more attention to the daily. I will also look at the 4hr to find a trade but didnt find anything there either. I also look at the 1hr and 15 min for entries (not trades ENTRIES). I use the monthly, weekly and daily mainly to plot S/R levels. As stated in my last post I was looking for price to now break the green line as it is a valid S/R level on the weekly and daily charts. Also as stated it is a 162 fib along with ote. Price came close last week but pushed down on Friday. Since there was nothing to tell me price is going down I will expect a gap to the down side and price to fill that gap. If it does then it most likely will set up the short I was looking for last week and did not get. Now there are a couple things I find interesting to support me looking to go short that I did not have last week.

First one is the COT report. I see large speculators (red line) are turning to the short side. As Commercials are looking long (blue line). Keep in mind a couple things on the excel spreadsheet I have below. One is there is 3 months of data missing as you can see by the part the chart goes in a straight line. I have not figured out how to import old data correctly. That is what it is I am not to worried about it. The next is we are not at an extreme positioning so this could be a small retrace on the weekly or daily time frames. That is fine with me as I trail stops and a retrace on the weekly or daily is plenty of pips for me. Here is the spreadsheet that I got off babypips. I wont say who as he knows who he is and I must say thanks.

The next thing I got to support my short that I did not have last week is SMT divergence on the daily chart. I know I said I was not going to post another chart but I lied. This is a line chart that shows the AU (red line), NU (blue line) and the USDX (green line). The MT4 indicator I am using to do this has a option called mirror mode. I am using that on the USDX. This feature flips the USDX meaning if it is posting higher highs on my chart it is really making lower lows. I use this to make it easier to spot divergence. I generally look for SMT on lower timeframes but never get it on these pairs. I know I have said many times before that it is very rare on this pair but when it does happen the probability of your trade goes up significantly. Here is the chart


As you can see the NU and USDX failed to push higher but the AU did make a higher high. Thats SMT right there. If you want to know more on SMT go to ICT's thread I posted a link on the first post. He explains it better than I ever could. So there you have it I see nothing to tell me I was wrong last week. Just more confluence to support my short. All I need now is an entry signal. Lastly guys please dont take this a trade advise. As previously stated I am not a teacher, mentor, or signal service. I am a trader, part time at that. If you go shorting come market open and lose its your problem not mine as you will not see me do it. I was asked questions on how I trade the Aussie and well here it is these are my thoughts. If something develops I will post a trade as I continue my quest.

[pulunyi]

Will be following

[yunny1]

Missed my entry by 8 pips The life of a trader...

Just updated some trend lines to reflect fresh intensity of the move...


http://i1086.photobucket.com/albums/...1/eurusd89.png

[bobmaninc]

Oh well yunny you know the name of this game as well as anyone it sucks but you will be back.

I didnt get a trade and not looking good for this week for me. I was correct on direction and everything. My analysis was on point. I was just looking for an entry on the daily and well I did not get it. Instead price dropped on the open for the week. So anyone who shorted at the open even though I said not to, guess what your account says I was wrong. I was not wrong everything lined up but my entry. Price looks to be making a low for the week. So I will not get in now unless a really nice setup comes up but, I am not holding my breath. I will not jump in the shark infested waters to swim after a sailed ship. Instead I will wait for the next one. I know the week is only half over but its made the move I was looking for (mostly). Sure could go down more but not enough to justify my risk. Now what did I learn from this? Nothing yeah thats right noda, not a damn thing. My analysis was correct, timing was good but I did not get the entry I was looking for. The daily really did not show signs of a reversal even though it did. I needed something to confirm this. That way I could lower the stop as in Nikitas thread. I have been trying to widen my stops due to a losing week. I think I will revert back a little as ever since then I have been struggling. Still in profits or more break even. I will keep working on it but I also know if its not broke dont fix it. My about 10 pip stops worked as they made me find precise entries. I was coming close to my stop (by a pip or 2) a lot and thats why I decided to widen them. I did not see it sustainable long term. But now I am finding nothing new just a wider stop but the same loss in the end. I see more trades go sideways now as I have more room to breath. I think in the end I do better under pressure a lot of pressure. With room to breath I seem to breath more. I am not saying I will not work on my stops a little but I think I went from one extreme to another. Either way it does not matter as I would not have taken a trade this week no matter what. So in the end this week would have ended the same result. My analysis never changed. My entries have since the stop is further now. Its actually not the stop placement it my way of thinking coming into the trade. Since I have more breathing room I use it. Still not a loss but I am no steps further from one either. So in conclusion I have not made more or less more by widening my stops just after reading my trade journal I seem to be more carelees with a wider stop. Thats why I preach a trade journal to every one on here. You may go back a read it and or you may not but if you need to review it is very handy to have instead of numbers from trades and trying to remember that trade. Sorry guys I just felt like rambling a little as (hell I cant lie not even watching charts right now) the charts go up and down. Thats your problem not mine. I might look to get in at the high of the week but I will see what that looks like when and if we get there. I have more to type but my fingers are getting tired so stay tuned as I continue my quest to short the Aussie into extinction.

[happypip]

Any thoughts on where you're gonna short next? Looks like it's making a huge retracement at the moment...

Just like you, I'm also waiting to pounce on this one. Haha :P

[Nikitafx]

Oh well yunny you know the name of this game as well as anyone it sucks but you will be back.

I didnt get a trade and not looking good for this week for me. I was correct on direction and everything.

My analysis was on point. I was just looking for an entry on the daily and well I did not get it.

Instead price dropped on the open for the week. So anyone who shorted at the open even though I said not to, guess what your account says I was wrong. I was not wrong everything lined up but my entry. Price looks to be making a low for the week. So I will not get in now unless a really nice setup comes up but,

I am not holding my breath. I will not jump in the shark infested waters to swim after a sailed ship. Instead I will wait for the next one. I know the week is only half over but its made the move I was looking for (mostly). Sure could go down more but not enough to justify my risk.

Now what did I learn from this? Nothing yeah thats right noda, not a damn thing. My analysis was correct, timing was good but I did not get the entry I was looking for. The daily really did not show signs of a reversal even though it did. I needed something to confirm this. That way I could lower the stop as in Nikitas thread. I have been trying to widen my stops due to a losing week. I think I will revert back a little as ever since then I have been struggling. Still in profits or more break even. I will keep working on it but I also know if its not broke dont fix it. My about 10 pip stops worked as they made me find precise entries. I was coming close to my stop (by a pip or 2) a lot and thats why I decided to widen them. I did not see it sustainable long term. But now I am finding nothing new just a wider stop but the same loss in the end. I see more trades go sideways now as I have more room to breath.

I think in the end I do better under pressure a lot of pressure. With room to breath I seem to breath more. I am not saying I will not work on my stops a little but I think I went from one extreme to another. Either way it does not matter as I would not have taken a trade this week no matter what. So in the end this week would have ended the same result.

My analysis never changed. My entries have since the stop is further now. Its actually not the stop placement it my way of thinking coming into the trade. Since I have more breathing room I use it. Still not a loss but I am no steps further from one either.

So in conclusion I have not made more or less more by widening my stops just after reading my trade journal I seem to be more carelees with a wider stop. Thats why I preach a trade journal to every one on here. You may go back a read it and or you may not but if you need to review it is very handy to have instead of numbers from trades and trying to remember that trade.

Sorry guys I just felt like rambling a little as (hell I cant lie not even watching charts right now) the charts go up and down. Thats your problem not mine. I might look to get in at the high of the week but I will see what that looks like when and if we get there. I have more to type but my fingers are getting tired so stay tuned as I continue my quest to short the Aussie into extinction.

Heheheh you are right when you say you need to breathe! That was one long no break post Bob.

Had to be the wise ass. No offence meant!

[bobmaninc]

Lol grammar has never been my best subject