I will start out my October recommendations here with the AUDUSD. This currency pair has corrected sharply and since then bounced nicely. I made over 600 pips on the bounce before my stop loss was triggered and I got out of the trade. The overall uptrend remains intact and healthy as you can see in this chart provided by Paxforex. I have taken my positions in this currency pair already (before I wrote and published this thread). I think I may have been a bit early (I am talking about 50 pips or so), but confident in this one. I doubt I’ll ride it for 600 pips this time, but we will see.
600 pips?! GOOD JOB! Where did you reenter?
Thanks, sometimes you get one of those. I have a few open shorts starting from 0.9450 to 0.9500. I think we will see a minor correction from here. Looking to exit around 0.9300 unless something changes. Overall I am bullish on this currency pair for teh rest of 2013.
Hi – first timer here, totally green and uninformed (and lost, really) when it comes to Forex trading.
Reason I’m replying here: you said you are bullish on AUD/USD for the rest of 2013. That means you expect the AUD to trend up against the USD, correct?
I’m asking because I just sold my home in the US, moved to Australia, and am now looking to buy a home down here. Tricky thing is: how to time transferring all that money from USD to AUD. I have done a first little bit in a few chunks of $10K for the past few months. I started that when it hit 0.90 at the start of September. Since then it has gone up considerably, and given the amount of money I still have to transfer, that trend is obviously making me very anxious.
My question: based on the analysis you guys have done and your experience, would you say that at the current rate I’m best to transfer all my USD over a.s.a.p., or is it safer to keep spreading it out, or should I wait till it drops back down again to 0.94 or maybe even 0.93? I literally have no clue – and hopefully I’m not embarrassing myself here – I’m at a loss.
To make my transfers, I go through a website (which I won’t mention, because I don’t want to spam). Their rates seem pretty good (just a little than – what’s that called – Inter-Bank Rates or something?). Any recommendations there also appreciated, but probably less important.
Thanks so much for any help with this… starting to get sleepless nights over it…
Erik
Hi Erik, thanks for your comment. That is a very tough question to answer. Primarily because we all have a different approach. I do expect that AUDUSD to continue to rally through the rest of 2013, that is correct. I would not be surprised to see it breakout above parity in 2014.
When it comes to transferring your money over from USD to AUD, it really depends on how much money you are moving and how much sense it makes to split it up. I would have moved it all in one chunk from your US bank to the Aussie bank when it was just below 0.9000. That does not help you out too much now, I know.
I am not sure how urgent it is for your to move your funds. Right now, at least according to me, the AUDUSD is somewhat stuck in the middle. It may correct a bit before moving higher, but I doubt we will see it back down around 0.9000 so between 0.9250 and 0.9350 is where I would exchange my USD to AUD. Again, that is my personal opinion on it and by no means a recommendation.
In the end you need to decide how you would like to handle this and what would make you feel most comfortable. There are plenty of factors to consider. This may have not been the answer you were looking for, but I hope it helps to a certain degree.
Hi TheLastBear,
When it dipped down to 0.90 I had just moved down here and was in the middle of a ton of other stuff. I realized the price was really low, and I immediately transferred the maximum that I could, but I needed my transfer limit to be increased 20 fold in order to transfer everything. I requested that increase straight away, and by the time that process was done, it was back up at 0.93. I should have transferred it then of course, but instead I waited a bit and since then it has just been creeping up. OOPS! 
I have half of it transferred now. I’ll transfer the other half pretty soon too. That way I can stop worrying about it at least. I should be happy the AUD is still below USD 1.00 come to think of it – right?
Could have been better, but could have been worse.
Thanks,
Erik
Hi Erik, I agree that it could have been better as well as worse. At least you’ll have it behind you soon and can focus on life in Australia.