AceTraderForex Jun 17: Intra-Day Market Moving News,Views & data to be released today

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

16 Sep 2014

AUD/USD[/B] - the RBA releases its minutes : 

-most prudent course likely to be a period of stability for rates
-policy must take into account risk of further large build-up in home prices
-members observed additional speculative demand could amplify property price cycle
-members noted there had not been a general easing in mortgage lending standards to date
-members judged current policy stance contributing to sustainable growth
-A$ remained above most estimates of its fundamental value
-iron ore prices had declined noticeably over the past month
-signs of pick up in labour demand, but some time before jobless rate declined consistently
-mining investment little changed in Q2 but should fall significantly over the next year
-degree of spare capacity in labour market apparent in the slow growth of wages
-recent Chinese data consistent with official GPD target of 7.5%
-conditions in China’s residential property market remain a risk to outlook for China

[B]Tuesday [/B]will see the release of Australia’s RBA meeting minutes, U.K. CPI, PPI and RPI, Bank of England quarterly bulletin, Germany’s ZEW current conditions and economic sentiment, U.S. core PPI final demand, Canada’s manufacturing sales, U.S. Redbook and overall net capital flows.

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

24 Sep 2014[/B] [I]01:31GMT[/I]

[B]AUD/USD[/B] -.....   RBA releases Financial Stability Review:

‘discussing with apra further steps to strengthen bank lending standards;
APRA has already intensified supervision of mortgage lending;
composition of housing and mortgage market becoming “unbalanced”;
bank competition driving strong rise in loans for housing investment; speculative demand could amplify house price cycle, risk eventual sharp reversal;
risks from housing cycle mostly macroeconomic, could become systemic if loan growth persists;
important that Australian banks do not loosen mortgage lending standards; overall lending standards have not eased as yet, but still might not be conservative enough;
strong investor demand for commercial property driving up prices, but risks modest so far;
Australian bank profitability remains robust, capital ratios rising and bad debts falling;
shadow banking only small fraction of australian market, poses little systemic risk;
indicators point to low levels of financial stress in household sector;
business lending by foreign-owned banks in Australia expanding at a fast pace;
rising concerns about asset quality in china amid slower growth, softer house prices.’

[B]Wednesday [/B]will see the release of New Zealand’s exports, imports and trade balance, Japan’s Markit manufacturing PMI, Swiss UBS consumption indicator, German Ifo business climate, current conditions and expectations, U.S. new home sales.

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

18 Nov 2014[/B] [I]00:31GMT[/I]

[B]AUD/USD[/B] - ........ statement from RBA minutes, quote:
  • Australia C.bank minutes repeat outlook is for period of stability in rates
  • A$ above estimates of fundamental value, providing less help to economy
  • BoJ stimulus, Japanese pension fund flows could keep A$ above fundamental value
  • RBA board cited considerable uncertainty over China property market, impact on economy
  • domestic growth running at moderate pace, to remain below trend until late 2016
  • very low rates, growing population to support housing market, home building
  • higher home prices filtering through to household wealth and consumption
  • RBA board noted lending to home investors rising noticeably faster than to owner occupiers
  • mining investment still set to fall sharply, offset by rising resource exports
  • RBA board noted non-mining investment not being hampered by cost or availability of finance
  • labour market subdued, would be some time before unemployment fell consistently
  • sluggish wage growth to help keep inflation in line with target range

[B]Tuesday[/B] will see the release of Australia’s CB leading indicator, Westpac leading index and RBA meeting minutes, China house prices, U.K. CPI, PPI and RPI, Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment, U.S. PPI, Redbook, NAHB housing market index, net L-T flows, overall net capital flows and foreign treasury buys.

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[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

01 Dec 2014[/B] [I]01:46GMT[/I]

[B]AUD/USD[/B] - 0.8430 ... Australian dollar nose-dived against U.S. dollar due to the sharp sell off in crude oil prices. Stops below 0.8480 were triggered in New Zealand morning today and price fall to 0.8444 and then to a fresh 4-year low at 0.8417 in Asian morning. 

Crude oil prices fell $1.41 to 64.74 following last Friday’s more than 8% sell off.
Offers are now tipped at 0.8450-60, 0.8480 and more at 0.8490/95.
On the downside, some bids are located at 0.8410-00 with stops seen below 0.8400.

[B]This week[/B] will see the release of the following economic data:

New Zealand’s Terms of Trade, Japan’s Business Capex, China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI, Japan’s Manufacturing PMI, China’s HSBC Mfg PMI Final, Swiss Manufacturing PMI, Germany’s Markit/BME Mfg PMI, eurozone Markit Mfg Final PMI, UK Markit/CIPS Mfg PMI, Mortgage Approvals, M4 Money Supply and Mortgage Lending, CAnada’s RBC Mfg PMI, US Markit Mfg PMI Final and ISM Manufacturing PMI [B]on Monday;[/B]

Australia’s Building Approvals and Current Account Deficit, RBA rate decision and statement, UK Markit/CIPS Cons PMI, eurosone Producer Prices, US Redbook, ISM-New York Index and Construction Spending [B]on Tuesday; [/B]

Australia’s GDP, China’s NBS Non-Mfg PMI and HSBC Services PMI, Swiss GDP, Germany’s Markit Services PMI, eurozone Markit Services Final PMI, UK Markit/CIPS Serv PMI, eurozone Retail Sales, US ADP National Employment, Productivity Revised, Markit Comp Final PMI, ISM N-Mfg PMI, Bank of Canada Rate Decision and Statement, US Fed’s Beige Book [B]on Wednesday; [/B]

Australia’s Retail Sales and Trade Balance, UK Halifax house prices, Swiss Industrial Orders, Bank of England rate decision, ECB rate decision, US Initial jobless claims, Canada’s Ivey PMI [B]on Thursday;[/B]

Japan’s Leading Indicator, Germany’s Industrial Orders, UK Consumer inflation expectations, eurozone revised GDP, US Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings, Canada’s Unemployment Rate, Employment Change and Trade Balance, US Factory Orders and Durable Goods [B]on Friday.[/B]

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[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
13 Feb 2015[/B] [I]01:06GMT[/I]

[B]AUD/USD[/B] - ..... Reuters news are quoting comments by RBA Governor Glenn Stevens & Assistant Governor Christopher Kent. 

Kent says “there is some range of uncertainty around that forecast”.

Stevens says : “- enough spare capacity in economy that could grow above trend for couple of years;
-Australia business has significant lack of confidence, risks talking itself into gloom” and forecast is that unemployment will peak around 6.4%;
-is some range of uncertainty around that forecast and unemployment has been edging up, to keep happening for little while yet.
He continues his testimony before the parliament, quote:

  • economy growing at below trend pace
  • inflation is low and appears likely to remain so
  • further fall in a$ likely to occur
  • commodity prices have fallen quite sharply in some cases
  • monetary policy still has capacity to give additional support to economy
  • fall in key export commodities hurting Australia’s terms of trade
  • mining downswing will accelerate this year
  • bank’s forecasts assume lower path for interest rates, but is not a commitment to action
  • domestic demand outside mining mixed
  • public sector spending still fairly subdued
  • working with other regulators on managing potential risks from rise in housing investment
  • developments in Sydney housing market remain concerning; not alarming elsewhere
  • unwise to react too strongly to one unemployment number
  • unemployment has been edging up, to keep happening for little while yet
  • unemployment remains low by historical standards

[B]Friday[/B] will see the release of China CB Leading Economic Index, France’s GDP, Non-Farm Payrolls, Germany GDP, WPI, Switzerland’s Producer/Import Price, Italy’s GDP, euro zone’s Trade Balance, GDP, Canada’s Manufacturing Sales, U.S.'s Export Prices, Import Prices, and University of Michigan Sentiment.

[B]Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
03 Nov 2015[/B] [I]07:00GMT[/I]

[B]AUS/US[/B]D - … Aussie trades near Asian high of 0.7213 after RBAQ stood pat in its rate decision. Reuters reported earlier Australia’s central bank kept its cash rate steady at a record low of 2.0 percent on Tuesday, but said subdued inflation meant there might be room for a further easing if needed to support the economy.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) disappointed some by not cutting straight away at its monthly policy meeting, though the shift to an explicit easing bias kept alive the prospect of a move at some stage.
In a brief statement, RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said the outlook for the economy had actually “firmed a little” in recent months with business conditions improving and employment stronger than expected.

“(Board) Members also observed that the outlook for inflation may afford scope for further easing of policy, should that be appropriate to lend support to demand,” he added.
Debt markets seemed to suggest investors were not counting on the RBA cutting by year end. Interbank futures for December slid to imply around a 36 percent chance of an easing, from above 70 percent earlier in the day. A drop to 1.75 percent is fully priced in by April.

Since last easing in May, RBA officials have sounded reluctant to cut even further in part for fear of inflating a debt-driven bubble in home prices.

There have also been hopeful signs of a pick up in non-mining investment with business conditions, confidence and borrowing all improving.

Yet, speculation about a cut had mounted after Australia’s major banks last month decided to lift mortgage rates in an effort to shield profits from rising regulatory costs.

A surprisingly low reading on price pressures out last week had added to the talk. Underlying inflation slowed to an annual 2.15 percent in the third quarter, near the floor of the RBA’s long-term target band of 2 to 3 percent.

With the broader economy still weighed by falling mining investment and weak commodity prices, some analysts had argued an easing would be warranted in the next few months.

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
05 Feb 2016[/B] [I]01:11GMT[/I]

[B]AUD/USD [/B]- ..... The RBA just released its Monetary Policy Statement, Reuters reported Australia's central bank sees sub-trend economic growth and tame inflation in the year ahead, but said any cut in interest rates will depend on whether the labour market deteriorated and if recent financial market turbulence pointed to a weaker global economy. 

In its 66-page quarterly report on monetary policy released on Friday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) highlighted the surprising strength of the labour market which led it to cut forecasts for the jobless rate.

The past decline in the local dollar had also been a key support for the economy, particularly service exports ? a trend it expects will continue. It reiterated that continued low inflation would provide scope for further rate cuts, should that be needed to support demand.

At its first policy review for 2016 on Feb. 2, the RBA left the cash rate unchanged at a record low 2.0 percent, where it has been since May last year.

Data to be released on Friday:

Australia retail sales, Germany factory orders, France imports, exports, trade balance, U.S. unemployment rate, non-farm payroll, average earnings, private payrolls, manufacturing payrolls, participation rate, trade balance, Canada imports, exports, international balance, participation rate, net change in employment and Ivey PMI.

[B] Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
16 Feb 2016[/B] [I]01:16GMT[/I]

[B]AUD/USD [/B]- ...... Aud rose after release of RBA minutes. Reuters reported Australia's central bank said the pace of economic growth should pick up gradually in the next few years without inflation being a problem, a benign mix that might provide it with the scope to cut interest rates further if needed. 

In minutes of its Feb. 2 meeting, where the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept the cash rate at a record low 2.0 percent, the central bank reiterated that very low rates and a weaker local dollar were already underpinning growth.

Based on the available data and the forecasts for economic activity and inflation, members judged that it was appropriate to leave the cash rate unchanged at an accommodative setting,the central bank said.
There continued to be evidence that very low interest rates were supporting growth in household consumption and dwelling investment and that the depreciation of the exchange rate was boosting demand for domestic production as it adjusted to the evolving economic outlook.

There was nothing in the minutes to suggest that the central bank has shifted its conditional easing bias. The Board noted that the outlook for continued low inflation may provide scope for easier monetary policy, should that be appropriate to lend further support to demand.

Highlighting the RBA’s level-headed approach to things, the Board began their discussion with developments in the domestic economy, while shrugging off the hysteria surrounding the recent turmoil in global financial markets.
The RBA said whether financial market turbulence presaged weaker global and domestic demand remained to be seen, their next meetsing due on March 1.

[B]Data to be released on Tuesday: [/B]

New Zealand retail sales, inflation expectation, Italy trade balance, U.K. CPI, core CPI, retail price index, producer price index, house price index, Germany ZEW current situation, economic sentiment, Eurozone economic sentiment, Canada manufacturing sales, U.S. housing market index, overall capital flows, foreign buying T-bond, NY Empire State manufacturing index and net long-term TIC flows.

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (AUD/USD)
02 Mar 2016
02:38GMT

[B]AUD/USD [/B]- ...... Aud maintains a firm undertone after jumping from 0.7166 to 0.7236 after release of upbeat AU GDP data. Reuters later reported Australia's economy outpaced all forecasts to grow at the fastest pace in almost two years last quarter as strength in consumer and government spending offset the heavy drag from a global mining slump. 

Gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter, from the previous quarter when it rose an upwardly revised 1.1 per cent.
That propelled growth for the year to 3 percent, well above the 2.5 percent that had been expected by both analysts and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

The central bank has held rates steady since May last year and just this week skipped a chance to ease, saying it saw “reasonable prospects” for growth.
RBA Governor Glenn Stevens did say there would be scope for further easing given that inflation looked set to remain low, and investors are still wagering he will have to move eventually given headwinds facing the global economy.

However, the timing has been pushed out with interbank futures now implying a 45 percent chance of a cut by May, compared to 60 percent before the data.
The RBA has made it clear it would prefer any further stimulus to come through a lower Australian dollar, but is being thwarted by the drastic easing of central banks elsewhere.

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Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (AUD/USD)
15 Mar 2016
01:30GMT

[B]AUD/USD[/B] - ...... The latest report from Australia's central bank RBA: The minutes suggested that there were "reasonable prospects" for continued economic growth and it was still too early to assess whether a bout of global market volatility early in the year foreshadowed something more sinister. 

With low inflation, that would give it room to ease policy but only if it was “appropriate to lend support to demand”, the Reserve Bank of Australia said in minutes of its March 1 policy review, where it kept the cash rate steady at a record low 2.0 percent for a 10th month running.

It continued that there had been further indications of a rebalancing of activity towards the non-mining sectors of the economy, more recent data had suggested that the economy had continued to grow at a moderate pace in early 2016.
Their Members judged that there were reasonable prospects for continued growth in the economy and that it was appropriate to leave the cash rate unchanged at an accommodative setting.

The RBA cited low interest rates, above-average employment growth and a depreciation of the exchange rate over the past couple of years as factors underpinning the economy. It made no mention of a recent rebound in the local dollar.
Over the period ahead, new informational should allow the Board to assess whether the improvement in labour market conditions was continuing and whether the recent financial turbulence presaged weaker global and domestic demand."

Members spent part of the meeting discussing China, Australia’s single biggest export market.
They have observed that demographic changes and strong productivity growth had been key drivers of economic growth in China for some time, but these forces were now reversing and were likely to weigh on further growth as a result.
However, the process of urbanisation still had some way to run in China and that would tend to support growth in the working age population.
The RBA also noted that Chinese household incomes are likely to rise over time, creating long-run potential for Australia to increase exports of rural produce and services, including tourism, to China.

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Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (AUD/USD)
17 Mar 2016
2:24GMT

AUD/USD - ..... Aud rose to a fresh 8-month high of 0.7620 after release of AU jobs data.  Australian employment barely rose in February but the jobless rate still fell back to 5.8 percent as fewer people went looking for work, a mixed report that did little to clarify the outlook for either the labour market or interest rates. 

Thursday’s data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed just 300 net new jobs were created in February, though full-time employment did increase by 15,900, offsetting a fall of 15,600 in part-time jobs.
Median forecasts had been for a rise of 10,000 in jobs and a steady unemployment rate of 6.0 percent.

The monthly jobs numbers are notoriously volatile and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) tends to focus on shifts in the unemployment rate to gauge the health of the labour market.

The drop to 5.8 percent would likely be welcomed then, especially as the central bank had recently highlighted unemployment as a key source of uncertainty going forward.
Interbank futures still imply around a 50-50 chance of a rate cut by August, in part because policy steps by other major central banks were pushing the local dollar higher in a way that could prove a brake on exports.

Just on Wednesday the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled a slowdown in the planned pace of its policy tightening, sending the U.S. dollar down across the board.
Asked about the Fed’s move on Thursday, RBA Assistant Governor Guy Debelle said practically every central bank in the world was keen to see a falling currency that would support domestic economies.
“We would like a lower Australian dollar. But we can’t all have depreciating currencies,” Debelle said, conceding it would be hard to engineer a decline in the Aussie.

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Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
06 May 2016
02:40GMT

AUD/USD - .... Aussie tumbled after release of 'dovish' RBA's quaterly report. Reuters reported Australia's central bank slashed its inflation forecasts on Friday and warned that the outlook for wages and price pressures were a key uncertainty, suggesting the door was open to another cut in interest rates. 

In its 66-page quarterly report, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) gave no explicit guidance that it will ease again as it maintained its growth projections for a gradual strengthening through mid-2018.

On Tuesday, the RBA cut its cash rate by 25 basis points to an all time low of 1.75 percent, citing surprisingly low inflation readings for the first quarter.
RBA now sees underlying inflation at just 1 to 2 percent for 2016, down from a previous forecast of 2 to 3 percent. The central bank aims to keep inflation withing a 2 to 3 percent band over the medium term.
It expected only a modest pick up to 1.5 to 2.5 percent through to mid-2018. The downward revision reflected an expectation that domestic pressures, including labour costs, will pick up more gradually than previously anticipated, the central bank explained.

RBA cut forecasts for wage growth and warned it would remain around current low levels for longer than previously forecast and pick up only very gradually. This was consistent with the movement of workers from highly paid mining-related jobs to other employment.
RBA noted on the outlook for domestic cost pressures is a key source of uncertainty, and adding another big unknown is how the exchange rate will react to a myriad of overseas risks. It may respond to a number of influences, including any unanticipated changes to the outlook for growth in China, commodity prices or the monetary policy decisions of the major central banks. It therefore represents a significant source of uncertainty for the forecasts of inflation, as well as for the outlook for growth in activity.

For now, the central bank is maintaining its forecasts for gross domestic product growth. It sees the economy growing at a 2.5 to 3.5 percent pace for 2016, lifting slightly to 3 to 4 percent by mid-2018, thanks to low interest rates and a weaker local dollar.
The exchange rate fell sharply from 2013 to late 2015. It reacted negatively to Tuesday’s rate cut decision, but held above the troughs reached in September.

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Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
14 Oct 2016
01:30GMT

AUD/USD - ...... Reuters just reported Australia's financial system is resilient to possible shocks though rising risks in the apartment and resource sectors bear close watching, the country's central bank said on Friday. 

In a 52-page semi-annual report on the health of the banking sector, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) highlighted pockets of domestic and foreign dangers.
Rising debt in China was a key concern, it said, since a rash of defaults could cause economic disruption in Australia’s single biggest export market.

Domestically, booming supply of new apartments in some inner-cities has raised the risk of a marked oversupply. If apartment market conditions were to deteriorate, banks could face material losses, the RBA warned.

Australia has successfully used historically low borrowing costs to spark a boom in home building that has helped shepherd the economy through the dog days of a global mining downturn.
But concerns about a borrowing-fuelled bubble in home prices was one of the reasons why the country’s central bank left interest rates at 1.5 percent this month.

It added that risks to financial stability from lending to households have lessened over the past six months as lending standards improved and the pace of credit growth slowed.

Banks have also taken steps to rein in risks including restrictions on lending to borrowers relying on foreign income and tightening lending conditions for new property developments.
The RBA pointed to risks in New Zealand given Australian banks have their largest international exposures there.

However, stronger capital and liquidity positions have bolstered the resilience of Australian banks, the RBA said, adding that a range of policies that are being finalised by regulators will further strengthen their position.
Australian banks have raised A$20 billion in capital since last year to boost their finances and have reduced focus on low-returning activities such as institutional lending.

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[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
09 Nov 2016[/B] [I]01:00GMT[/I]

AUD/USD - 0.7748.. Aud's retreats in Asia after hitting a 6-month peak of 0.7778 near New York close Tuesday. Reuters just reported A measure of Australia's consumer sentiment slipped in November after three straight months of gains ahead of the U.S. election and as households became less confident of the property market and their own finances, its compilers said on Wednesday. 

The Melbourne Institute and Westpac Bank survey of 1,200 people found consumer sentiment faltered 1.1 percent in November, from October when it rose by a similar quantum.

That left the index at 101.3, with optimists still outnumbering pessimists.

[B]Data to be released on Wednesday: [/B]

New Zealand electronic card retail sales, Australia consumer sentiment, Japan current account, trade balance, Eco Watchers Survey, China PPI, CPI, U.K. trade balance, U.S. mortgage applications, wholesale inventories, wholesale sales.

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
06 Dec 2016[/B] [I]05:01GMT[/I]

AUD/USD - … Reuters reported earlier Australia’s central bank held rates steady at its last policy meeting of the year on Tuesday, but sounded a note of caution on economic growth after a run of soft data pointed to a possible contraction in the third quarter.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ended Tuesday’s meeting with rates at a record low of 1.5 percent following two easings this year, but conceded the annual pace of growth was set to slow.

Governor Philip Lowe also dropped a reference to the economy growing at potential in his statement.
Policymakers have been sounding more optimistic on the economic outlook amid higher prices for key commodity exports.
A report on Australia’s gross domestic product is due on Wednesday and analysts now fear it could show a small contraction, the first since early 2011.
The risk of a negative GDP number was enough to pull the local dollar down a quarter U.S. cent to $0.7450.

Interbank futures still suggest the market sees scant chance of another cut in rates for the next few months, though any thought of a hike has also been priced out.

Low inflation and a lacklustre labour market could put the RBA on notice to cut rates further. Underlying inflation is stuck at a record low of 1.5 percent and seems likely to remain below the RBA’s 2 to 3 percent target band for another year or more.
Employment growth has also disappointed in recent months, while being heavily skewed toward part-time jobs.

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[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
07 Dec 2016[/B] [I]01:11GMT[/I]

AUD/USD -.... Aussie fell from Asian 0.7474 high to 0.7418 after release of downbeat Australian GDP data. 

Reuters reported Australia’s economy shrank for the first time in over five years last quarter as businesses, consumers and government all cut back on spending, an unexpected blow that will challenge policymakers’ optimism for growth.

The local dollar AUD=D4 sank about half a cent after the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported gross domestic product (GDP) fell 0.5 percent in the third quarter, from the second when it rose a revised 0.6 percent.
That was the first contraction since early 2011 and only the fourth since the country’s last recession in 1991.

The value of all goods and services was 1.8 percent higher than the same quarter last year, pulling back sharply from around 3.1 percent in the second quarter.
Business investment was the biggest drag with miners still unwinding a decade-long spending boom, while home building retreated after a very strong run.

The contraction was a major embarrassment to the conservative government of Malcolm Turnbull which won an election in July on a promise of delivering growth and jobs.
It was also chastening for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) which has recently been sounding more upbeat on the economic outlook.

The bank conceded growth would slow when it held rates at 1.5 percent this week, but also predicted an eventual pick up.
So far, investors seem to share the RBA’s optimism as rate futures rate imply scant chance of another rate cut in the next few months, though all thought of a hike has also vanished.

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
19 Dec 2016[/B] [I]02:00GMT[/I]

AUD/USD - .... Aussie shrugged off deepening Australia's budget deficit and edged higher to 0.7313 in Asia. Reuters reported Australia's conservative government on Monday forecast a A$10 billion deterioration in its budget deficit over the next four years but still hoped to snatch a surplus by 2020/21 and forestall a downgrade in its top credit rating. 

There have been fears the update could trigger a downgrade in the country’s prized triple-A rating and push up borrowing costs on over a trillion dollars of federal, state and bank debt.
Facing slowing economic growth and a seemingly intractable deficit, Treasurer Scott Morrison reaffirmed an aspiration to return to surplus June 2021 through a mixture of spending cuts and tax-raising measures.

A downgrade would also be a political nightmare for the Liberal National government of Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, which has long sold itself as a competent economic manager that can be trusted to balance the books.
The budget update showed the government expected a A$36.5 billion deficit for the year to June, slightly narrower than the initial forecast of A$37.1 billion. It then projected a steady, if slow, improvement to A$10 billion by June 2020.

The Treasurer also revised down estimates for gross domestic product growth for this year and next after the A$1.6 trillion economy surprisingly contracted by 0.5 percent in the September quarter, the first shrinkage since 2011.
It now expects GDP growth of 2 percent in 2016/17, down from 2.5 percent, and a pick up to 2.75 percent in 2017/18.

One bright spot has been a recovery in prices for many of Australia’s major commodity exports, with coal and iron ore surging in the past few months. If sustained, that will add billions to the tax take and could ease the pressure on the ratings.
And even if the country is downgraded, analysts said they doubted that it would have much of an impact on bond yields or investor confidence.

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
06 Jan 2017[/B] [I] 01:17GMT
[/I]
AUS/USD - … Despite release upbeat Australian trade data, AUD showed muted reaction to this.
Reuters reported earlier Australia boasted its first trade surplus in almost three years in November as surging commodity prices boosted export earnings beyond all expectations, a much-needed windfall for mining profits, national income and tax revenues.

Friday’s data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed a trade surplus of A$1.24 billion ($908.92 million)in November, far above forecasts of a A$500 million deficit.
Exports jumped by 8.4 percent, or a whopping A$2.3 billion, to top A$30 billion for the first time ever. Coal, iron ore and rural exports all enjoyed double-digit gains, while imports were unchanged on the month.

November’s barnstormer ended a 31-month run of deficits and is likely a just a taster of more to come as prices for many key resources remain strong on the back of sustained Chinese demand.

Data to be released on Friday:

Australia exports, imports, trade balance, Germany industrial orders, France exports, imports, trade balance, current account, EU retail sales, business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, consumer confidence, Canada unemployment, exports, imports, trade balance, Ivey PMI, U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings and factory orders.

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
02 Feb 2017
01:12GMT

AUD/USD - … Reuters just reported Australia boasted its biggest trade surplus on record in December as surging commodity prices showered the resource-rich nation in cash, a windfall that could lessen the risk of a downgrade to its triple A credit rating.
Thursday’s data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed a trade surplus of A$3.51 billion in December, handily outpacing forecasts of A$2.2 billion.

The previous month was also revised up sharply to A$2.0 billion, a double win that lifted the local dollar a quarter U.S. cent to $0.7624. Exports jumped by 5.3 percent to a record A$32.6 billion, led by double-digit gains in coal and iron ore, while imports edged up only 0.7 percent.
For the December quarter as a whole, the country notched up a surplus of A$4.8 billion in a startling turnaround from the previous quarter’s A$3.8 billion shortfall.

That will also sharply shrink the fourth-quarter current account deficit, a timely improvement given S&P Global Ratings has cited a reliance on foreign funding as one reason it might cut Australia’s top credit rating.
The rush of export earnings will also ripple through the economy via higher profits, incomes and tax receipts. That will again be a timely source of support given another engine of growth - residential construction - looks to be near its peak.

A separate report out on Thursday showed approvals to build new homes dipped 1.2 percent in December, the fourth fall in five months.
The pipeline of work yet to be done is still at record highs and should last longer in this cycle as much more of the construction comprises high-rise apartment towers.

AceTraderFx Jun 21: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -EUR/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
21 Jun 2017 02:23GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1135… The single currency is nursing loss in subdued Asian trading after yesterday’s break of last week’s 1.1133 low to a near 3-week bottom of 1.1119.
Despite intra-day choppy swings in Europe due to buying of eur vs gbp and jpy, the euro finally succumbed to active selling pressure on renewed usd’s strength in NY morning trading and fell to 1.1119 after tripping some stops below 1.1130.
However, bids above daily sup at 1.1110 contained intra-day weakness and price later inched higher to 1.1135/36 on minor short covering at New York close, then marginally higher to 1.1138 in Asian morning.

Although range trading above Tuesday’s temp. low is expected until European open, as yesterday’s break of last week’s 1.1133 low signals recent decline has resumed, one can expect further losses to occur in Europe, so trading euro from short side is the way to go.
Offers are tipped at 1.1140/45 and more above with stops above 1.1165.
Some bids are noted at 1.1120-10 with stops below 1.1100.

No major eco. data is due out from euro area countries but German FinMin Schaeuble will deliver a speech at German corporate governance conference in Frankfurt later today.