… Still just getting started. Seems like I’m nearing consistent profitability on demo. I’m just looking for some information from folks with experience. I normally enter a trade during the Asian session (gbp/usd) and then get out sometime during the Euro/London session. What I want to know is how big in terms of $/pip I can get before I can expect very quick fills and no significant impact on price when I enter/exit the market.
There has to be some upper limits where your own size start to mess with things so much that it screws with your own trades, either that or consistent profitability inevitably leads to virtually infinite wealth, that seems suspect :-P… can someone give a few hints where those boundaries start to show.
No reason why you can’t fill a few millions units at each and every price increment (100+ lots), in most cases you would get the fill within 1 pip of slippage due to partial fills at the next best available price. You can see this for your self using level 2 data which shows the volume of sell and buy orders at each price level - known as a price ladder.
Thanks for that Jezzode, that’s more than I was expecting which is maybe good news for the long term.
I’m not rolling very hard at all ATM Adrian, just monopoly money for a couple more months to make sure my recent results haven’t been a fluke… but things have been looking pretty hopeful for the last 5 weeks or so of forward testing. How’re things going for you?
Results in a demo account are worthless, at least according to me. You can forward test or back test in a demo all you want which means nothing. You will not know if your results have been a fluke until you are in the market, trading real money, earning real money and losing real money.
What does this have to do with the subject of this thread?
If there’s one thing forex forums are good for it’s providing a never ending stream of naysayers looking for an opportunity to tell you whatever you’re doing won’t work… whether they have the first idea what you’re doing or not. I got tired of having completely unsuccessful people tell me my strategy would never work so I stopped sharing it… Now I ask a simple question about liquidity and the same sort of thing shows up again. I’ve satisfied myself that everyone sharing the [I]sage[/I] conventional wisdom that my tiny stoplosses were unworkable was talking out their a$$, so I’m sure you’ll forgive me if I take your (endlessly echoed) bit of wisdom regarding the value of demo trading with about a pound of salt.
Now, do you have some real world experience to share regarding when order sizes start becoming large enough to make waves on the GB/US in the slow Asian session? Or did you just see a chance to repeat a cliché that makes your own experience seem more like a universal truth than a personal failure?
Wheeels, TLB makes a very good point. A profitable strategy in a demo account is just that profitable in a demo. Ask anyone who has transferred between the two. So at the moment you have no profitable strategy.
Secondly, nobody cares about your strategy. Same as nobody cares about mine. Speculating is subjective and we have only ourselves to lie to. Best keep it to yourself.
Finally, there are no stupid questions but yours shows a complete lack of understanding on how speculating works.
when order sizes start becoming large enough to make waves on the GB/US in the slow Asian session?
Every tick represent one trade that was sufficent to move the market. If you can even dream of having sufficient capital and DMA you can make the market go in which ever direction you like. But I would suggest that if you did you wouldn’t need to waste your time speculating. There’s having a dream and then there’s dreaming. Wake up bro.
No, he repeated a forum chestnut that is, on one hand, so patently obvious it’s actually akin to saying “you know, you haven’t made any money until you’ve made some money” and, on the other, such a silly claim you may as well tell NASA and commercial airlines to scrap all simulator training because control inputs ang gauge placement can’t be learned unless there are lives at risk.
Did I claim to?
Really? Try hanging out in this site’s chatroom for a week or two and see if you don’t get asked “what’s your strategy?” several times a day. Furthermore see if you don’t find a slough of people who try to explain why your strategy is deeply flawed when you answer (at least if it’s at all unconventional).
This makes me laugh… “there are no stupid question, but you’re one ignorant SOB.” LOL. At least your post included some constructive information that attempts to back it up though, so thanks for that.
With regard to that bit, you seem to be saying that it would take orders larger than I’ll ever make to move the market… maybe that’s true. But nature abhors a concentration, and you don’t see many people who claim to be highly successful trading who can actually back it up, so what are you contending is the real limiting factor on those that achieve some trading success but don’t go on to become multi-billionaires?
I believe one of my first posts on this forum was “how much money does it really take to move the market, and what’s the maximum number of lots that could be traded before partial fills” - a perfectly reasonable question regardless of if ones bankroll is large enough to attain this or not. Surely it’s natural to know the absolute limitations of the business we are in, even if we never meet them?
As for trading in a demo account, well… if you trading approach is fully automated and quantifiable then there will be no difference to back-testing or live testing - price data is price data regardless. Sure emotional aspects could kick in, but take this element out and you would see no difference which is what actually matters as your testing a ‘trading plan’ not yourself.
What we do will never have a bearing on the markets because we are not trading the market. The market is there so organizations can exchange cash. Nothing more nothing less. How, why, when, where or what amount you and I will never know and never comprehend. But we don’t have to. It is a never ending auction that must obey the rules of supply and demand. Therefor it leaves footprints behind in PA that you and I can study. Based on our work we place our bet on which way the price will move. If you work with a MM they’ll offset your bet. An ECN or STP broker will just offset your bet with another speculator. The greatest trick the market ever play was convincing us we are traders.
Really? Try hanging out in this site’s chatroom for a week or two and see if you don’t get asked “what’s your strategy?” several times a day. Furthermore see if you don’t find a slough of people who try to explain why your strategy is deeply flawed when you answer (at least if it’s at all unconventional).
The only people interested in someone-else"s strategy are losers - Period. Do you really think any of us do anything different to any-one else. Is you ego that large that you think you can bring something new to fundamental or technical work. Maybe we’ll call it the Wheels phenomena. There’s only one strategy thats works. Step one, study, step two do, step three specialize. Then its down to hard work. It’s no my fault these people are afraid of hard work. It takes years to find your groove (taking me four). Some pick it up sooner but I’m not to bright - I make things from milk.
So work hard bro, time will reward your effort but never forget what it is we are actually doing.
Beg to differ there. There is no latency or fill required on a demo and the broker uses a manipulated data feed. This morning I suffered a 7 pip spread on a trade chasing 20 pips. That slippage used to scare the crap out of me cause I never experienced it on a demo account. Now I accept it as part of the process.
a manipulated data feed… you need to change brokers then. My real account and demo of the same broker are identical, there is even a script to point out any variances between the two accounts. As for slippage, or reqoutes between the two, yes that can happen. But when researching a trade plan, or a trading system of your own - the raw price data is identical - or it should be with any respectable broker.
Great point. I admit I hadn’t thought about things in that way and I’ll be giving it a lot of thought in terms of how it might effect my approach. But you haven’t really answered my question.
I don’t know why you keep implying I’ve said something arrogant about my strategy here, I haven’t. What I’m doing doesn’t have to be 100% original to be unconventional.
Fill is what I’m asking about… do you think it’s independent of order size? If not, how is it effected? That’s what I’m after.
You mentioned your demo as part of your question and I responded to that as your question about liquidity (regardless of how ‘fill in the blank’ I think it is) has been answered to a certain degree. Your comparison as a response to bob’s threat to scrap simulation flights for pilots is equally off the target as anything else you asked here. As far as I am concerned bob was right on target with his response. Your thinking that any order you will place will have any impact on the market says it all. Keeping this going makes no sense at all so I will stay clear of insults and won’t respond to any BS you decide to post.
VERY big of you… I’m tingly with admiration. It’s doubly beneficial because now you’ll have more time to keep repeating that demo trading is worthless over and over on the forum… I’ve noticed a theme in your posts
What my market order gets filled out has and hasn’t got anything to do with volume. Now, I don’t expect anyone to trade like I do. It is a real headtruck to be painfully honest. I face a whole heap of issues others don’t need worry about. Primary one, getting my order filled at the price I want.
First, candlesticks are a lag indicator just like any other, the tick that just was is the last market price, it has no bearing on future price. Second from the moment I decide to enter until the order is filled takes time. And its a process, first my brain has to tell my finger to left click, then it must flow through the internet, that’s called latency, then my broker must find someone to offset my bet. IF thats a MM well he can **** around a bit more. An ecn or stp he has to find someone to offset my order. You might be at the other end looking to make the exact opposite trade so we cancel each other out. My order might have to be collaborated with 10 others. Who knows. But all together it takes time. It’s a process. And in that time, the market doesn’t care. Its busy doing its own thing. Some-one in the real world just dump 100 million and the price has dropped 7 pips.
So getting my order filled at the price I want has nothing to do with the volume I want to trade but the process my order must undertake. I read somewhere that a firm spent 60+ million on a 12 km optic cable to reduce latency by 12 ms. I’m running at 500+ today. It’s tuff what we do and the odds are stacked against us in ever way possible.
If the same or similar question is asked or remark made then yes my answer is the same. It will not change. Demo is worthless, you don’t have to like it and nobody is asking you to change your approach. You keep thinking that your big orders will have an impact on the forex market, I don’t really care about it.
You don’t care about it SO MUCH that here you are posting again even after you said you wouldn’t… gotcha. I like this new approach better btw… it’s more honest. Instead of pretending you’re on some imagined moral high road you’ve tried to imply I’m arrogant by falsely saying I made some claim about “my big orders”… when really I’ve been open from post #1 that my orders are currently $0, I’ve made 0 claims and 0 assertions… so far unbacked claims and assertions are your department, so who’s arrogant?
Why don’t you just admit it… denying order size has any impact on price is exactly the same as saying demand has no effect on value, and you have 0 real life experience to add because you’re not successful enough to have found any upper limit… Otherwise you can only be saying that there is no upper limit and you could buy every USD in existence without causing an unusual jump in price from one tick to the next.
If you can’t do that and/or try to offer something constructive I really would prefer you go back to cruising the forums and pissing on posts noobs make about their progress… I’m sure it will make you feel a lot better about your own situation.
Calm down bro. The only noob being pissed on here is you. So lets see if we can break it down simply.
Your order size regardless of how big it is will have absolutely no bearing on the market because you are not trading the market. The only limiting factor for you is your brokers maximum lot size and their ability to find some-one to counter trade your bet.
Best you not worry about these things and focus more on your trading. If your account size was large enough to worry about these things your bank would be all over you. Dumb ass.
I see, so my curiosity means I’m a dumb ass… I’m not smart like you high-post-count heroes who don’t think about things that aren’t already a problem…
Burt wait… there IS a limiting factor?! And you could have said what you think it is in a single sentence all along??? Whoa!!! But then how could this have gone on for two pages… with two “honorary fx-men” going on about how little I understand and how little people like me shouldn’t worry about these issues???
Why, it’s almost as if I’ve encountered a couple forum pros who’s primary interest is convincing themselves and others they understand things far better than most, and that anyone thinking they might one day be more successful than they are is just an idiot. That couldn’t be though, could it? Because for that to be the case I’d have be dealing with a complete pair of circle jerking douchebags, wouldn’t I? And we all know the last thing either of you could be is a douchebag… don’t we… “bro”?
