Do you read forex analysis and forecasts or you prefer to do it by your own? How precise are they?
What sources of forecasts do you use?
I don’t read anyone else’s analysis - all my trades are based on the respective chart, looking for strongest trend plus a pull-back to allow a lower risk entry. Possibly taking account of what the the pairs involving these currencies are doing - e.g. I don’t like being short on e.g. USD when its the bullish partner in every other pair.
I only do TA to identify my entry opportunity plus stop-loss and exit levels. As nobody else is doing exactly the same trades as me, with exactly the same risk tolerance, capital, expectations etc., I can’t expect their TA, even if good, to exactly match my requirements. So best keep the mind clear and not fill it with data I can’t use.
Using other people’s forecasts is like asking someone for driving directions. The quality of the forecast depends a lot on who you ask. Each one will tell you a different answer, and the quality of the forecast decreases the further ahead they go.
Thanks a lot for replies. Most of Forex brokers post daily forecast on their sites or blogs. Should I believe them?
I realise, that it is better to analyse and predict price movement for my own, but Im a beginner and its quite difficult for me to do it.
It can seem like black magic at first, especially when many commentators like to make it look more complicated than it really is - this makes them look like experts so they can gain a following or sell something. But they might really be no more expert than you or I.
So go back to what you will see in all markets because that’s how they work -
- prices going up / down tend to continue going in the same direction
- but they don’t continue up /down in a straight line.
Profit comes from prices moving up / down when you are long / short. So look for a smooth and continuing trend, find a place where the trend weakens and if its an uptrend get long, if its a downtrend get short. Put a stop where price would go through to break the trend.
This is certainly easy to learn for a beginner. Later you can master harder techniques, but at least you can then risk profit ion these, not your precious savings.
IMO you cannot rely 100% on the daily forecast of the broker’s analysis. For sure most of the brokers have some decent analysts working for them and you can learn a lot but you should also try to read the market by yourself.
However you can go through the forecasts of your broker for past periods and compare with what actually happened on the market. You should not expect 100% accuracy but 70-80% should be a good sign. If you notice sufficient results you may consider trusting such forecasts from time to time.
Thanks very much! Really valuable advices!
I think, I need both read forecasts and try to analyse by myself to become a pro.